S&P 500 Dividend Yield and 30-Year Treasury Bond Are U.S. equities a “buy”? The dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index is now higher than the yield from a 30-year Treasury bond. This is a rare phenomenon. But keep in mind that the equity risk does not disappear because a company pays a dividend. Picture…
U.S. Monthly Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Keep in mind that mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield. 30-year mortgage rates = 1.739 x (10-year treasury yield)² + 0.7755 x (10-year treasury yield) + 0.0227(R² = 0.9787) You may also like “30-Year Mortgage Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield.” Picture source: Leonard Kiefer
Demographics Explain Sovereign 30-Year Yields Accross Emerging Markets Another great chart showing that emerging market demographics explain 30-year sovereign bond yields. An R² of 0.80 is quite high and significant. You may also like “U.S. Population Growth vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield.” Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
30-Year Mortgage Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield There is a very high correlation between the 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury yield 30-year mortgage rates = 1.739 x (10-year treasury yield)² + 0.7755 x (10-year treasury yield) + 0.0227 R² = 0.9787 Picture source: Calculated Risk
US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57% Why US long-term mortgage rates decline? Mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield which was lower this week, because the trade war between the United States and China pushes investors moving money from stocks to bonds. Bond yields fall as prices rise.…
200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This great chart suggests that 200-Day Change in Yield Curve 30-Year minus 10-Year spread leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index by 16 months. It also suggests that U.S. PMI is bottoming and could bounce back. Picture source: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
U.S. Population Growth vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield U.S. demographics explain the 10-year Treasury bond yield, due to low inflation. The U.S. 10-year bond yield reflects inflation and growth expectations, and working age population growth contributes to inflation and GDP growth. You may also like “Demographics Explain Sovereign 30-Year Yields Accross Emerging Markets.” Picture source:…
Seasonality Effect in the Bond Market This interesting chart shows the seasonality of 30-year Treasury bond. Picture source: Commodity Seasonality
Cyclical Stocks Responding to Steepening Long-term Yield Curve Keep in mind that the Fed has little influence on the long end of the yield curve. And currently, the 30-year Treasury rate minus 10-year Treasury rate spread has a normal upward slope, like in the mid-1990s when the economy was growing. The chart below shows that the…
What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…
