Value vs. Growth and U.S. 30-Year Government Bond Yield The outperformance of U.S. growth stocks relative to U.S. value stocks suggests lower bond yields ahead. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Housing – U.S. Existing Home Sales and 30-Year Mortgage Rate This chart shows the correlation between U.S. existing home sales and the 30-year mortgage rate (inverted), and suggests further improvements in sales. Image : Piper Sandler Companies

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index vs. S&P 500 (Price Relative) and U.S. 30-Year Bond Equity markets suggest new lows in bond yields. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

S&P 500 Stocks with Dividend Yields Above 30-Year Treasury Yield Yields on U.S. equities seem competitive vs. U.S. Treasuries, but equity risk does not disappear because a company pays a dividend. Image: Legg Mason

S&P 500 Dividend Yield and 30-Year Treasury Bond Are U.S. equities a “buy”? The dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index is now higher than the yield from a 30-year Treasury bond. This is a rare phenomenon. But the equity risk does not disappear because a company pays a dividend. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Monthly Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Keep in mind that mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield. 30-year mortgage rates = 1.739 x (10-year treasury yield)² + 0.7755 x (10-year treasury yield) + 0.0227(R² = 0.9787) You may also like “30-Year Mortgage Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield.” Image: Leonard Kiefer

Demographics Explain Sovereign 30-Year Yields Accross Emerging Markets Another great chart showing that emerging market demographics explain 30-year sovereign bond yields. An R² of 0.80 is quite high and significant. You may also like “U.S. Population Growth vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield.” Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

30-Year Mortgage Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield There is a very high correlation between the 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury yield 30-year mortgage rates = 1.739 x (10-year treasury yield)² + 0.7755 x (10-year treasury yield) + 0.0227 R² = 0.9787 Image: Calculated Risk

US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57% Why US long-term mortgage rates decline? Mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield which was lower this week, because the trade war between the United States and China pushes investors moving money from stocks to bonds. Bond yields fall as prices rise.…

200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This great chart suggests that 200-Day Change in Yield Curve 30-Year minus 10-Year spread leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index by 16 months. It also suggests that U.S. PMI is probably bottoming now and could bounce back. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC