Recession – Conference Board: Consumer Expectations – Current Conditions Is the next U.S. recession on its way? Historically, gloomy confidence expectations do not bode well. Image: The Daily Shot
Valuation – S&P 500 Next 12 Months P/E Ratio vs. University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index The valuation of the S&P 500 remains high as consumer expectations fall. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index and Real Consumer Spending This chart shows the correlation between consumer expectations and real consumer spending, and suggests real consumer spending growth of around 2.5-3%. Image: ING
Conference Board Consumer Confidence: Expectations vs. Current Situation and Recessions Is the next recession on its way? Gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Image: Lohman Econometrics
S&P 500 Sector Expectations Chart suggesting quarantines end in June and economic growth recovers to means, based on consumer searches, economic data and policy uncertainty. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Mean Probability That U.S. Stock Prices Will Be Higher One Year From Now – Survey of Consumer Expectations – The mean probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher one year from now is 41.03% as of April 2019. Image: New York Fed Survey of Consumer
U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…