Recession – Conference Board: Consumer Expectations – Current Conditions Gloomy confidence expectations have historically not been a positive sign for the U.S. economy, which can potentially lead to reduced spending and investment. Image: The Daily Shot
Consumer Expectations – What Do You Expect of the U.S. Economy over the Next 12 Months? Most American consumers are not very optimistic about the U.S. economy over the next 12 months. Image: BofA Global Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Next 12 Months P/E Ratio vs. University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index The valuation of the S&P 500 remains high as consumer expectations fall. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index and Real Consumer Spending This chart shows the correlation between consumer expectations and real consumer spending, and suggests real consumer spending growth of around 2.5-3%. Image: ING
U.S. Consumers – Stock Prices and Income Expectations U.S. consumers are experiencing a notable rise in optimism regarding stock market returns for the next 12 months, but this may lead to disappointment as their outlook on income growth does not reflect the same enthusiasm. Image: Deutsche Bank
Recessions and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Expectations Less Present Situation Historically, low consumer confidence expectations have not been a positive sign for the U.S. economy. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Conference Board Consumer Confidence: Expectations vs. Current Situation and Recessions Is the next recession on its way? Gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Image: Lohman Econometrics
U.S. Inflation Expectations U.S. inflation expectations have declined over the past month, making consumers more optimistic than in April. However, sentiment is still weaker than six months ago, with uncertainty persisting due to ongoing tariff policies. Image: Yahoo Finance
Conference Board 1-Year Expectation Stock Prices Increase vs. S&P 500 The Conference Board’s latest Consumer Confidence survey reveals the sharpest two-month drop in stock market expectations—a level of pessimism that historically signals a contrarian buying opportunity. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Mean Probability That U.S. Stock Prices Will Be Higher One Year From Now – Survey of Consumer Expectations – The mean probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher one year from now is 41.03% as of April 2019. Image: New York Fed Survey of Consumer
U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…