U.S. High-Yield Spreads vs. Corporate Cash Flow as % of Debt (Leading Indicator) Rising AI infrastructure spending and swelling debt are draining liquidity, setting the stage for weaker cash-flow-to-debt ratios in 2026 and wider credit spreads across the sector. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 and Treasury Bond to Corporate BB High Yield Spread Widening credit spreads often signal upcoming declines in the S&P 500, serving as a valuable leading indicator of equity market stress because they typically react early to shifts in market sentiment and risk. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Yield Curve – Which Yield Spread Matters? An inverted yield curve, which has preceded every U.S. recession over the past 50 years, is something that investors should care about. Image: Real Investment Advice
Yield Curve – 2Y/10Y U.S. Treasury Yield Spread and 2Y/10Y German Treasury Yield Spread The U.S. and German yield curves are decoupling, suggesting a slower economic activity in the United States. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Yield Curve – U.S. 10Y-2Y Treasury Yield Spread and U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield Does the flattening of the yield curve signal skepticism about the prospects for economic growth? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Coronavirus – EM High Yield Spread The coronavirus pandemic has left credit spreads at distressed levels for a number of EM high-yield sovereigns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
High Yield Spread vs. U.S. Default Rate Current high yield spreads are predicting decline in U.S. default rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. High Yield Spreads vs. IG Spreads and Large Cap Growth Relative to Small Cap Value This chart suggests that new highs in stocks need high yield outperformance and sustained rotation from large cap growth to small cap value. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Yield Spread (Baa Bonds – Utility Dividends) Chart suggesting that utilities are cheap relative to Baa bonds. Image: Morgan Stanley
High Yield Spreads – Implied Default Ratio vs. Moody’s Forecast High-yield spreads suggest a severe recession similar to the global financial crisis. Default ratio at 16.1% (12m). Image: Swedbank Research
High Yield Spread to Worst Is the panic over for high-yield bond investors, as global coronavirus fears intensify? Image: J.P. Morgan