U.S. Yield Curve – Which Yield Spread Matters? An inverted yield curve, which has preceded every U.S. recession over the past 50 years, is something that investors should care about. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index and Yield Spread (A-Rated vs. Junk Bonds) The S&P 500 tends to fall when yield spreads between A-rated and junk bonds widen. It is therefore a leading indicator to watch closely. Image: Real Investment Advice
Yield Curve – 2Y/10Y U.S. Treasury Yield Spread and 2Y/10Y German Treasury Yield Spread The U.S. and German yield curves are decoupling, suggesting a slower economic activity in the United States. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Yield Curve – U.S. 10Y-2Y Treasury Yield Spread and U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield Does the flattening of the yield curve signal skepticism about the prospects for economic growth? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Equity Implied Volatility and Credit High Yield Spreads U.S. equity implied volatility remains at relatively high levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Coronavirus – EM High Yield Spread The coronavirus pandemic has left credit spreads at distressed levels for a number of EM high-yield sovereigns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
High Yield Spread vs. U.S. Default Rate Current high yield spreads are predicting decline in U.S. default rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. High Yield Spreads vs. IG Spreads and Large Cap Growth Relative to Small Cap Value This chart suggests that new highs in stocks need high yield outperformance and sustained rotation from large cap growth to small cap value. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Yield Spread (Baa Bonds – Utility Dividends) Chart suggesting that utilities are cheap relative to Baa bonds. Image: Morgan Stanley
High Yield Spreads – Implied Default Ratio vs. Moody’s Forecast High-yield spreads suggest a severe recession similar to the global financial crisis. Default ratio at 16.1% (12m). Image: Swedbank Research