10Y-3M Treasury Yield Spread Adjusted for QE and QT

10Y-3M Treasury Yield Spread Adjusted for QE and QT Adjusted for quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT), the 10-year minus 3-month yield curve may have inverted in December 2018. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

“Yield Curve” Google Trends vs. 10Y-3M Yield Spread

“Yield Curve” Google Trends vs. 10Y-3M Yield Spread This interesting chart shows the Google trends interest for the “yield curve” compared to the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread. If history helps us predict the future, the next market peak could be in 2021 or later, maybe. Picture source: Ken Fisher

Decomposing the U.S. 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spread since 2013

Decomposing the U.S. 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spread since 2013 This great chart shows that the “Global Economic Data” variable has a significant impact on the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread since 2018. An R² of 0.902 means that more than 90 percent of the variance in the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread…

10-Year Treasury minus 1-Year Treasury Yield Spread vs. S&P 500 Returns

10-Year Treasury minus 1-Year Treasury Yield Spread vs. S&P 500 Returns If history helps us to predict the future, the 10y-1y treasury yield spread suggests low returns ahead for U.S. stocks. After 10 years of a bull market, our stock market forecasting model also shows that the market follows a different path in 2019. Statistically,…

U.S. High-Yield Credit Spreads

U.S. High-Yield Credit Spreads High-yield credit spreads are still below recession level (red line). A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession“

Global High Yield Bond Spreads Since 2017

Global High Yield Bond Spreads Since 2017 High yield bond spreads have widened recently (difference in yields between high yield bonds and comparative government bonds). Picture source: BlackRock