U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Friday was another good day. At Thursday’s close, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish, and the S&P 500 confirmed it Friday, closing up 0.42%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
AAII Bulls Minus Bears and S&P 500 Returns The S&P 500 trades near record highs, up more than 10% year to date, but US retail sentiment refuses to follow. The AAII bull-bear spread remains stuck in negative territory. That kind of skepticism can keep the rally alive. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, the average U.S. bull market ran for eight years and returned 288%. At just 3.5 years old and up more than 100%, this one still looks far from exhausted, leaving bears stuck in a painful squeeze. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance During the 1980-2000 and 2013-Current Secular Bull Markets The S&P 500 has been rising since March 2013, but age alone doesn’t call the top. The last secular bull market ran nearly two decades. If history is any guide, this one may still have further to go. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 – Bull Markets That Made It To 100% At just 3.5 years old and already up more than 100%, the current bull market still looks like it has legs, leaving bears stuck watching from the sidelines. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Length of Bull Markets and When They Started Born in October 2022, this bull market is young by market history. It may have more fuel in the tank than the bears would like to admit. Too many forget just how early this bull market still is. Image: Carson Investment Research
Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread and S&P 500 Bulls are slipping out the side door. Over the past decade, every sustained S&P 500 gain came when the II bull‑bear spread topped 20%. That kind of conviction is missing now. Image: Hi Mount Research
Net Bullish Sentiment vs. S&P 500 Index Investor sentiment has turned sharply risk‑averse in recent weeks, as the Middle East conflict and its potential spillovers have made markets more cautious about risk assets. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 – Seasonality During Bull vs. Bear Markets (Midterm Election Years Only) Bull markets don’t offer immunity. U.S. midterm election years tend to bring choppier trading and elevated volatility for the S&P 500 until late in the year. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX, and bullish sentiment, has cooled from a year ago but is still sitting close to the top of its historical range, flashing an early warning for the market cycle. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Yearly Performance During Bull Markets History favors the bulls: since 1950, only once has an S&P 500 bull market ended in its fourth year—history therefore favors further upside over a transition to bear market. Image: Carson Investment Research Click the Image to Enlarge