U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 0.65%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX, and bullish sentiment, has cooled from a year ago but is still sitting close to the top of its historical range, flashing an early warning for the market cycle. Image: Topdown Charts
AAII Bulls Minus Bears and S&P 500 Returns The AAII bulls minus bears sentiment spread in 2025 has mirrored bear market extremes from history, reflecting deep pessimism over near‑term stock performance — but to contrarians, that gloom looks like opportunity. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Yearly Performance During Bull Markets History favors the bulls: since 1950, only once has an S&P 500 bull market ended in its fourth year—history therefore favors further upside over a transition to bear market. Image: Carson Investment Research Click the Image to Enlarge
S&P 500 Yearly Performance During Bull Markets Now in its fourth year, the bull market shows little sign of tiring. History still favors the bulls—since 1950, this phase of the cycle has usually meant more upside, not a break into bear territory. Image: Carson Investment Research
The 2009 S&P 500 Bull Market Compared With This One No market cycle is identical, but the S&P 500’s path since 2022 looks like a remix of the 2009–2020 bull market—same mid‑cycle pullback, same setup for another leg higher, much to the bulls’ delight. Image: Carson Investment Research
Cumulative Bull vs. Bear Markets Why do bear markets matter? Because most of the gains of an inflation-adjusted bull run can be erased when the next downturn hits. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Bull Markets Eight years and 288% gains—that’s on average the bull market playbook over the past 50 years. As today’s bull market enters its third year, there’s reason to believe the party is far from over. Image: Carson Investment Research
AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread The AAII bull-bear spread points to a balanced mood among U.S. retail investors who expect stock prices to decline in the near term—a condition that could set the stage for a sharper move in either direction. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Ratio to Its 200-DMA and AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread Historically, very low investor sentiment has not only signaled caution but also suggested further upside in U.S. equities, offering opportunities for contrarian investors. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 – Length and Severity of Bear and Subsequent Bull Markets Since 1970, the typical bear market lasts roughly 14 months, experiencing an average decline of around 38%, and is followed by bull markets that last about 70 months and generate average returns of 221%. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management