U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day up 0.59%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
S&P 500 – Length of Bull Markets and When They Started Born in October 2022, this bull market is now four years old. Bulls are smiling: over the past 50 years, every bull market to reach this age lasted at least five years, with an average ultimate length of eight years. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Yearly Performance During Bull Markets Age alone is no reason to call time on a bull market. Bull markets that reach year four have more often than not delivered another strong year, averaging 18.9% and giving bulls a new reason to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, the average U.S. bull market has lasted eight years and generated a 288% gain. Nearly four years into the current rally, the market still appears to have room to run, much to the bears’ frustration. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Trailing P/E: Current vs. Average Bull-Market Extremes At 26 times trailing earnings, the S&P 500 stands well above its historical average and many previous bull-market peaks, leaving little room for bad news. But that multiple alone does not make a crash inevitable. Image: Real Investment Advice
Cumulative Bull vs. Bear Markets (Points) Bear markets don’t just trim gains. They can erase most of the inflation-adjusted upside from an entire bull run. Which is why a late-cycle drop is never just noise. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX, and bullish sentiment, remains deep in euphoria territory. When the crowd is this bullish, the risk is today’s bulls turning into tomorrow’s sellers on the next bad headline. Image: Topdown Charts
AAII Bulls Minus Bears and S&P 500 Returns The S&P 500 trades near record highs, up more than 10% year to date, but US retail sentiment refuses to follow. The AAII bull-bear spread remains stuck in negative territory. That kind of skepticism can keep the rally alive. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance During the 1980-2000 and 2013-Current Secular Bull Markets The S&P 500 has been rising since March 2013, but age alone doesn’t call the top. The last secular bull market ran nearly two decades. If history is any guide, this one may still have further to go. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 – Bull Markets That Made It To 100% At just 3.5 years old and already up more than 100%, the current bull market still looks like it has legs, leaving bears stuck watching from the sidelines. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread and S&P 500 Bulls are slipping out the side door. Over the past decade, every sustained S&P 500 gain came when the II bull‑bear spread topped 20%. That kind of conviction is missing now. Image: Hi Mount Research