Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Geopolitical tensions are clouding sentiment among U.S. equity fund managers in March, but confidence in the market and the economy remains intact, as many bet the shock will be short-lived. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Equity Positioning Equity positioning has edged just below neutral, opening the door to further upside if momentum kicks in. For now, that spark is missing. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies remain overweight at the 63rd percentile, while discretionary investors positioning is still cautious at the 22nd percentile, leaving room for potential upside if momentum builds. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning, at the 38th percentile, sits just below neutral, offering upside potential should momentum pick up. So far, that shift has yet to materialize. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Valuations remain lofty at 21 times forward earnings for the S&P 500 and 25 for the Nasdaq 100, but investors aren’t backing off, convinced the earnings story still has legs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Equity Forward Earnings Global earnings growth exceeding 15% is rare outside of post-recession recoveries or major economic booms. Right now, the backdrop for businesses is unusually strong. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums With equity risk premiums low in the U.S. and Japan, investors earn little extra for taking on stock risk over safer bonds, leaving equities a tougher call and prone to disappointment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Relative Equity Market Performance – USA vs. Rest of the World U.S. equities have lagged global peers recently, posting their steepest relative underperformance in 15 years. The leadership baton has passed to cheaper, more cyclical markets overseas, pointing to brighter days for the global cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
U.S. Equities – Net Portfolio Equity Flows Investors can’t seem to get enough of U.S. stocks. Net inflows in 2025 topped an amount equal to about 2% of GDP, an intensity the market hasn’t seen in years. Clearly, investors still see plenty of upside in U.S. equities. Image: Deutsche Bank
Tax Refunds and U.S. Equity Fund Flows U.S. equity fund inflows tend to pick up sharply during tax refund season. History suggests the next few weeks could see another wave of cash hitting the market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Valuation Percentile for Equity, Credit and Bond Valuations matter more over the medium term than in the moment. In years like 2025, robust growth let markets climb anyway, powered by rising profits despite high price tags. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research