U.S. Equity EPS Growth Expectations U.S. equity EPS growth expectations are particularly strong, with analysts projecting double-digit growth in both 2025 and 2026, driven by economic expansion and technological advancements. Image: TS Lombard
Equity Positioning Across Sectors Recent data indicates that positioning in the mega-cap growth and technology sectors remains robust, reflecting ongoing investor confidence. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance U.S. equity investors’ risk appetite has fallen from recent highs in January 2025, driven by concerns over interest rates and geopolitical tensions. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning stands at the 84th percentile, indicating an elevated level. While not at its absolute peak, this high level of positioning may limit upside potential. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 have a significantly larger weight in the index compared to their share of earnings, which raises concerns about potential overconcentration risks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Systematic Equity Positioning Current systematic equity positioning is at the 90th percentile, indicating high equity exposure. This could result in limited upside potential, elevated risk levels, and an increased likelihood of market reversal. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium The current equity risk premium suggests that investors might find U.S. Treasury bonds more appealing than U.S. equities. Image: Bloomberg
Positions in U.S. Equity Futures by Asset Managers U.S. equity futures positions among asset managers are highly stretched. This level of optimism might lead to market indigestion. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity Team
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium With the S&P 500 equity risk premium hitting multi-decade lows, investors may find bonds more appealing than stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Sector Returns While large-cap growth stocks, particularly those in the Magnificent 7, performed strongly in 2024, there was also a significant shift toward value sectors throughout the year, reflecting broader economic resilience. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Equity Risk Premium The equity risk premium, at the 94th percentile from 2010 and at the 67th percentile from 2000, suggests that investors may not be receiving adequate compensation for the risks associated with investing in U.S. stocks. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Macro Research