U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator – Equity Positioning The U.S. equity sentiment indicator has declined to -1.2; however, such sharp drops in sentiment often signal the potential for above-average S&P 500 earnings in the next three months, suggesting potential for a contrarian rebound. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consolidated Equity Positioning The 31st percentile of consolidated equity positioning highlights a notable level of investor risk aversion in the current market climate. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Ahead of the April 2 tariff day, systematic equity positioning is in the 25th percentile, whereas discretionary equity positioning sits at the 48th percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Breakdown of U.S. Households’ Equity Ownership In the United States, stock ownership is heavily concentrated among the wealthiest households. Recent data indicates that the top 10% of American households own approximately 90% of all stock market wealth. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Share of Global Equity Market The U.S. share of the global equity market, while still dominant at 54%, has retreated from its peak of 57%, reflecting recent market turbulence and growing diversification concerns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Small Cap Equity Positioning Small-cap equity allocations are currently low, sitting at the 33rd percentile. This suggests potential for increased small-cap allocation among many investors, particularly those with long-term investment horizons. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Compared to historical standards, both tech and S&P 500 valuations remain elevated, raising questions about future market performance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Forward S&P 500 Returns Following Large Declines in U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator Historically, sharp declines in the U.S. equity sentiment indicator have often preceded positive strong stock market performance in the following weeks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Foreign Investor Ownership Share of U.S. Equity Market Foreign investor holdings of U.S. stocks have reached an unprecedented 18%, setting a new record. However, upcoming trade policy shifts and global economic uncertainties could impact future foreign investment in American equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ACWI Ex-U.S. vs. U.S. 3-Month Correlation and U.S. Equity 3-Month Return When U.S. equities experience a sell-off, it often indicates underlying worries about the global economy or financial system, triggering risk aversion. This typically leads to declines in both domestic and international equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Flows The S&P 500’s correction has not only affected market performance but also altered individual investors’ behavior, with many refraining from “buying the dip” due to increased caution amid economic and market uncertainties. Image: CNBC