NFIB Small Business Availability Loans vs. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Weak credit conditions, particularly when interest rates are high, can have a significant impact on the overall economy, potentially leading to higher unemployment rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
NFIB Small Business Confidence Index The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index has fallen to 88.5, a level linked with recessions. This decline is concerning as it suggests small business owners are less optimistic about their businesses and the economy. Image: Real Investment Advice
Sentiment – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index High interest rates and inflation have dampened small businesses’ optimism. However, the anticipation of rate cuts and economic improvements may boost sentiment going forward. Image: BofA Global Research
Net % Bank Easing Standards for Small Business vs. NFIB Small Business Optimism Tighter lending standards have an impact on small business optimism. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Net Margin and NFIB Small Business Survey: Demand vs. Wage Cost Composite (Leading Indicator) Is there a risk of further decline in S&P 500 margins? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
NFIB Small Business Sentiment U.S. small business sentiment is a recessionary warning. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inflation – Single Most Important Problem Facing Small Business Owners Inflation is supposed to reduce profit margins. Image: BCA Research
Fed Funds vs. NFIB Small Business Jobs Hard to Fill Historically, higher wage inflation is associated with higher Fed funds. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inflation – Small Businesses’ Single Most Important Problem Inflation and cost of labor are affecting small businesses. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Labor Market – NFIB Small Business Jobs Hard to Fill and U.S. Unemployment Rate Are extra unemployment benefits the reason hiring is so hard right now? Image: Capital Economics