U.S. Small Business Sales Expectations and Nominal U.S. GDP Growth Chart showing the correlation between U.S. small business sales expectations and nominal U.S. GDP growth, and the impact of small businesses to the U.S. economy. Image: Blackstone
NFIB – U.S. Small Business Economics Trends U.S. small business economy and hiring plans remain strong. Image: BCA Research
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index The Small Business Optimism Index is driving economic growth. It is a good indicator of the health of small businesses in the U.S.. Image: Ned Davis Research
Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession.“ Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
Small Business Optimism Roars Back, Rivaling Historic Highs Small Business Optimism Index improved: expectations for sales, business conditions, and expansion rose. That’s good news for the U.S. economy. See why the “Small Businesses Optimism Index” is a good recession indicator. Image: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
The “Small Businesses Optimism Index” Is a Good Recession Indicator This is not the perfect recession indicator, but when the Small Businesses Optimism Index falls below 100 or more likely below 95, then the risk of a recession remains high. And when the Small Businesses Optimism Index hits an all-time high, a recession may occur…
Why Is “Small Businesses Planning to Hire” a Good Recession Indicator? When the percentage of Small Businesses Planning to Hire, falls from a high level to less than 10%, then the risk of a recession remains high. That’s not the case today, there is no recession coming. Image: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)