S&P 500 Forecast Dividend Yield Is Above The 10-Year Treasury Yield Dividends remained stable or increased, while the 10-year Treasury yield has declined. Picture source: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
S&P 500 Forecast for 2019 Goldman Sachs is holding its year-end price-target for the S&P 500 at 3100, and its downside scenario at 2620 (as of August 23, 2019). Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Seasonality The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 seasonality chart from 1985 to 2018 (excluding 2008). Keep in mind that this is not a forecast. Picture source: Goldman Sachs
S&P 500 Projection Based on Years When Index Gains at Least 15% by April The chart shows the S&P 500 projection based on years when the index gains at least 15% by April (11 times since 1928). This is not a forecast. Picture source: Wojciech Białek, Macrobond
S&P 500 vs. Its Seasonal Pattern This chart shows when the S&P 500 tends to perform better or worse at certain times of the year. This is not a forecast. You may also like “S&P 500 Average Return for Each Day.” Picture source: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Seasonality Chart showing the S&P 500 seasonality from 1985 to 2018 (excluding 2008). Keep in mind that this is not a forecast. Picture source: Goldman Sachs
Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2019 This great chart shows the S&P 500 cycle composite for 2019 vs. the actual S&P 500 composite (places equal weight on: one-year seasonal cycle, four-year presidential cycle, and 10-year decennial cycle). Keep in mind that this is not a forecast. Picture source: Ned Davis Research
10-Year Treasury minus 1-Year Treasury Yield Spread vs. S&P 500 Returns If history helps us to predict the future, the 10y-1y treasury yield spread suggests low returns ahead for U.S. stocks. After 10 years of a bull market, our stock market forecasting model also shows that the market follows a different path in 2019. Statistically,…
Do You Really Think That, By Buying the S&P 500, You Never Lose Money? Well, even if it is not adjusting for inflation with dividends, this chart is very interesting. That’s the reason why we develop stock market forecasting models. Picture source: Frank Jurs
Over The Last 6 Months, The S&P 500 Lags Bonds, Gold And Global Stocks Last year, the sell-off of stocks was a correction from a bad equity risk premium and an overvalued stock market, as suggested by our forecasting models. Picture source: Bloomberg
