S&P 500 / WTI Spot Price, Detrended The roughly 30-year cycle in the relationship between U.S. stock market returns and oil prices highlights periods when stocks are either expensive or cheap relative to oil. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
WTI Crude Oil and Recessions Sharp increases in oil prices—often doubling—have been a consistent and significant signal preceding U.S. recessions, making oil prices a key economic indicator to watch for early signs of economic downturns. Image: Yahoo Finance
The Cost of a Barrel of Oil in Real U.S. Dollar Terms While short-term oil price shocks can create significant economic disruptions and drive inflation higher, oil prices over the long run typically track the general rate of inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
WTI Oil Prices While oil prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical risks, particularly in regions like the Middle East, the market has so far avoided the kind of sustained shock that would trigger broader inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
WTI Crude Oil to Gold Ratio Gold shines as the best-performing asset of 2024 for those looking for stability and inflation protection, while oil faces significant challenges from shifting demand patterns. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
WTI Oil Price vs. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) Oil prices tend to lead U.S. CPI inflation by 6 months. Image: Alpine Macro
Crude Oil WTI Will oil prices continue to fall as recession fears mount? Image: The Daily Shot
Inflation – S&P 500/WTI Could the United States face an energy crisis? Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Inflationary Pressures – WTI Crude Oil Futures Will oil prices continue to rise in 2022? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
WTI Crude Oil Price Seasonality Seasonality suggests that oil prices tend to move lower into year end. Image: Topdown Charts
Lumber/WTI Crude Oil and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Leading Indicator) Slower economic growth is expected over the next 14 months. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond