Hyperscalers Realized Year/Year Growth – Earnings vs. Free Cash Flow While hyperscalers are still delivering steady earnings, their free cash flow growth has sharply cooled, and that gap could prove costly, since stock performance has often mirrored free cash flow trends closely. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. High-Yield Spreads vs. Corporate Cash Flow as % of Debt (Leading Indicator) Rising AI infrastructure spending and swelling debt are draining liquidity, setting the stage for weaker cash-flow-to-debt ratios in 2026 and wider credit spreads across the sector. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Cash Spending Relative to Cash Flows Many S&P 500 companies devote substantial cash flow to stock buybacks, a practice that benefits shareholders in the short term but sparks concerns about favoring short-term gains over long-term growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cash Flows Will flows into cash continue to be strong as rates rise? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Index Operating Cash Flow as a Percent of Market Capitalization Market fragility remains elevated. Cash flow as a percent of market cap is close to the dotcom bubble low. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Net Debt of Nonfinancial Corporations Relative to Cash Flow Companies have significant cash flow to cover their debt obligations. Image: LPL Research
Free Cash Flow Margin for S&P 500 and Tech Sector The free cash flow margin for the tech sector has risen from less than 5% in the aftermath of the Internet bubble to more than 23% today. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
GWIM Cash Flows This chart shows the largest cash outflow from BofA’s private clients since April 2019, while there has been a lot of cash inflow this year. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Cash Flow Chart showing the correlation between S&P 500 cash flow and the ISM Manufacturing Index. Image: Raoul Pal
Shareholder Return vs. Free Cash Flow Thanks to low interest rates, shareholder return has exceeded free cash flow levels again. U.S. companies cannot spend more than they earn indefinitely. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Dividends and Buybacks vs. Free Cash Flow Dividends and buybacks have exceeded free cash flow levels again, thanks to low interest rates. But companies cannot spend more than they earn forever. Image: Capital Group