Real Interest Rates and Recessions

U.S. Real Interest Rates and Recessions Currently, U.S. real interest rates are negative. In recent history, real interest rates were at least above 1.8% (orange line) before a recession.

U.S. Rates and Yield Curve

U.S. Rates and Yield Curve Chart suggesting that the triangle pattern could drive the U.S. 10-year Treasury above 2% this year. Image: Fidelity Investments

Fed Rates Cut in 2020

Fed Rates Cut in 2020 Chart showing that a full rate cut is priced in 2020. Image: Danske Research

S&P 500 vs. 10-Year Rates and Secular Cycles

S&P 500 vs. 10-Year Rates and Secular Cycles Chart suggesting that the secular bull market of the 1920’s is probably the best example of the current cycle. Image: Real Investment Advice