Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Investors should expect only one 25bps Fed rate cut for the remainder of 2025, most likely in September, unless there is a significant deterioration in economic data or a sharp rise in unemployment. Image: The Daily Shot
CAPE Valuations vs. 10-Year U.S. Interest Rates Rising interest rates often have a significant impact on equity market valuations, frequently causing valuation reversals, especially for growth stocks and companies with high valuations based on future earnings expectations. Image: Real Investment Advice
Developed Market Core Inflation Rates In most major economies, inflation rates have significantly eased. While challenges remain, current trends suggest that inflationary pressures are gradually coming under control. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Interest Rates – Implied Fed Funds Target Rate The Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points today, but projections for 2025 indicate a more gradual easing strategy, aiming to boost the economy while keeping inflation in check. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Rates – Treasury Yield Forecasts Deutsche Bank forecasts the 10-year UST yield at 4.65% by year-end 2025, driven by potential increased tariffs, fiscal easing and deregulation, which may lead to stronger economic growth and higher inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
Interest Rates – Expectations for the Fed’s Policy Rate Path Morgan Stanley expects more Fed rate cuts in the first half of 2025 than markets currently price in, as the impact of tariffs will likely hit the U.S. economy, despite inflationary risks. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Interest Rates – Fed Funds Futures Curve After the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting, the slope of the fed funds futures curve has increased slightly, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding future interest rate movements. Image: The Daily Shot
Gold and U.S. 10-Year Real Rates Gold prices typically exhibit an inverse relationship with U.S. real interest rates, as investors often shift their holdings between gold and interest-bearing assets based on the opportunity cost of owning the precious metal. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
CTA Positioning in U.S. Rates While CTAs’ current long positions in U.S. rates reflect a bullish outlook, they also serve as a potential contrarian indicator for savvy investors looking to capitalize on market reversals. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rates vs. Oil U.S. breakeven inflation rates closely track oil prices, creating a complex challenge for the Federal Reserve as it navigates potential deflationary pressures in the coming months. Image: Real Investment Advice
G10 Policy Rates The majority of G10 central banks are either currently cutting rates or are expected to start soon, reflecting a broader global disinflationary trend and changing economic conditions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research