Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns Throughout history, steep declines in consumer sentiment have often been followed by strong stock market rallies over the next year, making these sentiment lows a potentially reliable indicator of upcoming gains. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Consumer Confidence Composite vs. Trailing S&P 500 Valuations The composite consumer confidence index is highly correlated with trailing one-year S&P 500 valuations, which can signal times of market exuberance or caution. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Presidential Approval Rating vs. Consumer Confidence Trump’s approval exceeds Biden’s late-term lows, but deteriorating consumer confidence’s predictive power signals substantial downside risk as economic anxieties translate into political consequences. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
University of Michigan Survey – Consumer Who Expect Higher Unemployment over the Next 12 Months The latest University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers indicate that a significantly higher share of Americans now expect unemployment to rise over the next year, reaching the highest level since 2009. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Consumers – Stock Prices and Income Expectations U.S. consumers are experiencing a notable rise in optimism regarding stock market returns for the next 12 months, but this may lead to disappointment as their outlook on income growth does not reflect the same enthusiasm. Image: Deutsche Bank
Consumer Confidence Composite and S&P 500 While the U.S. stock market has experienced a remarkable rally, consumer confidence has waned since 2019, underscoring a disconnect between financial market performance and broader economic sentiment. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Labor Market – Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs “Plentiful” Minus Jobs “Hard to Get” Shifts in consumer perceptions regarding job availability suggest notable changes that could potentially lead to a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Consumer Prices Index vs. U.S. Composite PMI Input Prices (Leading Indicator) U.S. Composite PMI Input Prices tend to lead U.S. CPI by 6 months, reflecting the impact of changes in input prices on consumer prices over time. Image: Charles Schwab
U.S. Consumer Sentiment and Recession In recent months, U.S. consumer sentiment has improved markedly, mainly due to lower inflation, the positive performance of risk assets and a recovery in real income growth. Image: Deutsche Bank
Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Twitter Sentiment Index, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Despite strong economic performance, U.S. consumer confidence has shown improvements but has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating that the recovery process is not yet complete. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Recession – Conference Board: Consumer Expectations – Current Conditions Gloomy confidence expectations have historically not been a positive sign for the U.S. economy, which can potentially lead to reduced spending and investment. Image: The Daily Shot