Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims Interesting chart showing a good correlation between the consumer confidence spread and jobless claims. As a reminder, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines before a recession. See also “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.” Picture source: Pictet Asset…
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index History tells us that before a recession, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines. Picture source: Crescat Capital LLC
U.S. Consumer Prices Index vs. PMI Input Prices Index This great chart shows U.S. Consumer Prices Index (annual % change) vs. PMI Input Prices Index. Let us keep in mind that a low CPI is positive to extend this business cycle. Picture source: IHS Markit
Average Consumer Price Increase After US Import Tariffs by 25% This chart shows the average consumer price increase in percentage points for US consumers/firms after an increase in US import tariffs by 25 percentage points. Trade war costs to consumers and companies. Tariffs are a hidden tax on American consumers and US firms. Picture source:…
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Democrats vs. Republicans This chart shows that Democrats and Republicans have a completely different view of the U.S. economy. Democrats see a recession coming and Republicans see economic growth. Picture source: John Kemp
