Recession – Conference Board: Consumer Expectations – Current Conditions Is the next U.S. recession on its way? Historically, gloomy confidence expectations do not bode well. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Consumer Credit U.S. consumer credit is surging as goods prices continue to rise. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment vs. Recessions Historically, lows in consumer sentiment precede strong stock returns. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Commodities – Commodity Price Shock, Percent of Consumer Spending The commodity price shock on consumers is not yet at the level of the 1970s. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
12-Month S&P 500 Returns Following Peaks and Troughs of Consumer Sentiment Historically, troughs in consumer sentiment tends to precede big stock market returns. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Impact on U.S. Consumer Spending If Oil Prices Rise to $120 If oil prices remain elevated, will the Fed raise interest rates more gradually than markets expect? Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Consumer Confidence Composite and S&P 500 Rising asset prices have not translate into higher consumer confidence. How much will the Fed raise interest rates this year? Image: Real Investment Advice
Consumer and Corporate Cash Balance as % of S&P 500 Market Capitalization Consumer and corporate cash levels as % of market capitalization are at lows. Is the U.S. stock market facing a lack of dry powder? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Inflation – MSCI ACWI Energy vs. Consumer Discretionary Price Relative Historically, real assets tend to perform well in inflationary environments. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Valuation – S&P 500 Next 12 Months P/E Ratio vs. University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index The valuation of the S&P 500 remains high as consumer expectations fall. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management