Cyclical/Defensive Equities Ratio and 10-Year Treasury Yield The chart shows the correlation between the cyclical/defensive equities ratio and the 10-year treasury yield, signaling an economic slowdown. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research
Fed’s Broad USD and Cyclicals vs. Defensives This chart suggests that current equity market rotation weakends the U.S. dollar. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives Chart showing that U.S. cyclicals sectors relative to defensive sectors are still pricing in a strong rebound in growth (R = 0.82). Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Secular Growth Stocks Relative to Defensive Stocks More downside ahead? This chart suggests that secular growth stocks are at risk. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research
ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives This chart shows the nice correlation between ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond
Citi Economic Surprise Index and S&P 500 The Citi Economic Surprise Index has risen sharply, but it has an inconsistent history in terms of its correlation with the S&P 500. It is a cyclical indicator: high readings suggest favouring defensives over cyclicals, and low readings suggest favouring cyclicals over defensives. Picture source: Renaissance Macro
Gold vs. U.S. 10-Year Real Yield The chart shows the nice correlation between the U.S. 10-year real yield (inverted) and the price of gold as a defensive asset Picture source: Saxo Bank
Gold vs. Real U.S. Rates The chart shows the nice correlation between real U.S. rates (inverted) and the price of gold as a defensive asset. Picture source: Richardson GMP
