Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are tilting toward a steady growth outlook. Relative returns between cyclical and defensive stocks imply about 1.9% U.S. real GDP growth, broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ forward 4Q GDP growth forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cyclicals vs. Defensives Cyclicals have become as pricey as defensives, leaving them vulnerable if confidence falters. Higher energy costs or trade disruptions could worsen the pressure by dampening activity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cyclicals vs. Defensives – 12-Month Forward P/E Premium Cyclical stocks are leading the way in 2025, leaving defensives behind as optimism returns to markets. In the U.S., that surge has lifted cyclicals to a valuation premium over safer plays. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield and Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives Higher growth expectations raise bond yields because investors demand greater compensation for potential inflation and uncertainty about future interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cyclical Minus Defensive Sectors Positioning The cyclical-minus-defensive sectors positioning at the 24th percentile indicates a defensive market stance, with investors heavily favoring sectors less sensitive to the economic cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Cyclicals vs. Defensives Performance Cyclical sectors’ strong performance suggests economic optimism, but investors must be cautious about potential overvaluation and risks, especially when buying cyclical stocks late in the economic cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives ex. Commodities and ISM Manufacturing Index U.S. equity sector rotations are pricing in a “no landing” economic scenario, where the U.S. economy avoids both recession and significant slowdown, maintaining steady growth instead. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI Cyclicals/Defensives Return During anticipated economic expansions, investors lean towards cyclical stocks for their growth potential, while defensive stocks serve as a buffer during economic downturns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stocks – Cyclicals vs. Defensives Investor sentiment is often reflected in the performance of cyclicals versus defensives. Typically, expectations of economic growth lead to a preference for cyclicals, resulting in their outperformance relative to defensives. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Stocks – Cyclicals vs. Defensives Cyclicals and defensives are useful indicators of investor sentiment. As investors expect economic contractions, they often shift towards defensives, resulting in their outperformance compared to cyclicals. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hedge Funds’ Cyclical vs. Defensive Positioning During economic expansion, investors favor cyclicals over defensives. The current low hedge fund exposure to cyclical vs. defensive sectors may present a potential opportunity for contrarian investors. Image: BofA Global Research