U.S. Election – Nasdaq vs. Probability of Democratic Presidential Win in 2020 Has the market already priced in a democratic victory in November? Image: Variant Perception Research
U.S. Elections and S&P 500 Average 3-Month Forward Return from August 1st During Election Years The S&P 500 tends to see worse-than-average performance leading up to U.S. elections. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Prediction Market Probability That Democrats Have Control Following 2020 Election According to Goldman Sachs, the odds of a “blue wave” in November have risen and could lift the effective S&P 500 tax rate from 18% back to 26%, reducing the 2021 EPS forecast from $170 to $150. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 4-Year Performance After Each U.S. Election Since 1988 This chart puts into perspective the S&P 500 4-year performance after each U.S. election since 1988. Image: Paolo Cardena
U.S. Election and Equities Among advisors, the survey shows that the U.S. election is the biggest risk to equities. BofA US Equity & US Quant Strategy
Odds of Winning U.S. Presidential Election Here’s a look at the current betting odds for Donald Trump, Michael Bloomberg and Bernie Sanders. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Calendar Year Performance During U.S. Presidential Election Years Presidential election years have historically been good for U.S. equities, when an incumbent president winds up winning reelection. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute
Sector Performance in the 9 Months Prior to Past U.S. Presidential Elections This chart shows the sector median excess return vs. the S&P 500 during 9 months before 11 presidential elections since 1976. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns Since 1950 and Elections Years February has averaged zero during an US election year since 1950, but has the best month the past 10 years. Image: LPL Financial LLC
S&P 500 Monthly Returns During an U.S. Election Year Since 1950, February returns have averaged zero for the S&P 500 during an U.S. election year. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC