S&P 500 YTD Returns as of the End of September in Election Years The S&P 500 has demonstrated a remarkable performance in 2024, marking the best first nine months of an election year since 1950, driven by strong corporate earnings, resilient consumer spending, and investor optimism. Image: Carson Investment Research
Elections – U.S. Voting Age Population Younger generations, specifically Millennials and Generation Z, are projected to become the new majority voting bloc in the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election, marking a significant generational shift in the electorate. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Performance in Election Years While September and October may not favor investors in election years, awareness of historical trends and potential volatility can help investors navigate this period with greater effectiveness and confidence. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After >20% Pre-Election Years Following a pre-election year gain exceeding 20%, the S&P 500 index has consistently shown positive growth during the election year, with an average increase in value of 11.3% since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Volatility – VIX and U.S. Election The historical trend of the VIX spiking before U.S. elections and then rapidly declining afterward can be attributed to heightened uncertainty and investor fear in the lead-up to the elections. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Average Monthly Volatility for U.S. Election Years Since 1928 The historical pattern of the VIX rising before U.S. elections and then rapidly plunging afterward is attributed to increased uncertainty and investor fear leading up to the elections. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
VIX Average Trend in U.S. Election Years Historical patterns suggest that the VIX tends to bottom out in mid to late August, followed by a trend of increasing volatility as the U.S. Election Day approaches, driven by heightened market uncertainty. Image: BofA Global Research
How U.S. Stocks Historically Do When the Incumbent President Doesn’t Run for Re-Election The tendency for U.S. stocks to perform well in years when the incumbent president chooses not to run for re-election can be attributed to decreased uncertainty surrounding future governance. Image: Carson Investment Research
Odds of Winning U.S. Presidential Election Prediction market odds still favor a Trump re-election victory in the 2024 presidential election, but his lead has narrowed following recent events. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Monthly Returns During an U.S. Election Year The S&P 500 has historically performed well in August during presidential election years, contributing to an overall positive market sentiment and potentially extending the summer rally. Image: Carson Investment Research