One Year S&P 500 Returns Post the Election Date Since 1960, the S&P 500 has shown a tendency for positive returns in the year following U.S. elections—proving that while politicians may change, the stock market still prefers to keep its party hat on! Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
S&P 500 Index Around Election Day – 2016 vs. 2024 Trump’s 2024 win sparks investor optimism, reminiscent of 2016, with promises of tax cuts and deregulation. Wall Street’s post-election party is so wild, even the bears are buying drinks for the bulls! Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Performance in Election Years Bulls are smiling as December is one of the most promising months for U.S. stocks during a presidential election year, with gains occurring 83.3% of the time and an average return of 1.3% since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Total Returns for a Selection of Major Global Financial Assets since the U.S. Election While the U.S. stock market responded positively to the recent election, international markets remain volatile due to uncertainty about the new U.S. administration’s trade policy and its impact on global trade. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Around Close Presidential Elections While U.S. elections are significant in shaping economic policy and affecting investor sentiment, they do not consistently drive changes in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Around Close Presidential Elections The cyclical behavior of equity markets around U.S. elections reflects a pattern where pre-election pullbacks are common, followed by post-election rallies as policy uncertainties dissipate. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Stock Returns Over the Past Presidential Terms Starting on Election Day During President Biden’s tenure, U.S. stocks have surged by 76% starting on election day, reinforcing historical data suggesting that Democratic administrations often correlate with stronger market performance compared to their Republican counterparts. Image: Carson Investment Research
VIX Indexed to Election Day Equity implied volatility typically increases leading up to U.S. presidential elections and decreases afterward, mirroring the market’s reaction to political uncertainty and its resolution. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Post-Election Day S&P 500 Returns While investors have responded positively to the election results, the true effects of new policies remain uncertain. The market’s robust performance is based on expectations, not realized economic outcomes. Image: Bloomberg
Consecutive Presidential Elections Where the Incumbent Party in the White House Is Defeated For the first time since the late 1800s, the incumbent party has lost three consecutive presidential elections. Politicians are unable to deliver against expectations in a world of lower growth and fairly regular shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank
30-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Around Presidential Election Dates Historically, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have tended to rise after Republican victories and fall after Democratic victories, reflecting market perceptions of each party’s economic policies. Image: Deutsche Bank