S&P 500 Around Predictable U.S. Presidential Elections History suggests that predictable elections are a non-event for the U.S. stock market. Deutsche Bank is bullish. The official S&P 500 2020 estimate is 3,250. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns and Pre-election Year Since 1950, and over the past 10 & 20 years, the S&P 500 has been positive on average in December. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payroll Growth vs. U.S. Election Outcome Chart showing the relationship between growth trends into U.S. elections and the margin of victory or defeat for incumbent candidates. Historically, the probability of incumbents winning an election increases, as growth trends improve. Image: Bessemer Trust
S&P 500 Return A Year Later Off The Midterm Election Lows A year after the midterm lows, the S&P 500 is up 32% on average. History also shows that the S&P 500 has been higher 17 out of the last 17 times, since 1950. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
S&P 500 Total Return, Adjusted for Inflation, in Three Years After Initial Election The stock market performance, adjusted for inflation, in first three years since Trump’s election is quite good. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Price Return 12-Month Period Following Midterm Election Since 1946, the S&P 500 has never declined in the 12 months following a midterm election. Image: Strategas
S&P 500 and U.S. Election Chart showing a series of potential outcomes for the S&P 500 Index in the 2020 U.S. election. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
6-Month S&P 500 Return Following U.S. Election Since 1932, the median 6-month S&P 500 return for an all Republican sweep has been 4% vs. 1% for an all Democratic sweep, and 3% for a divided government. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation and Returns around U.S. Presidential Elections Historically, the S&P 500 has performed well in the 12 months prior to an U.S. election. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Stocks, Bonds and Commodities Performance During U.S. Presidential Election Years Historically, since 1900, stocks and bonds have struggled in the first half of U.S. presidential election years. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute