Incumbent Presidential Election Years Since 22nd Amendment Incumbent presidential election years have traditionally been good for equities, with an average return of 11.4% since 22nd amendment. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Presidential Election Years and S&P 500 Index Average Cumulative Returns This chart suggests that since 1932, volatility during primaries can produce strong returns. Image: Capital Group
U.S. Election – Presidential Cycle and Average S&P 500 Return since 1872 Since 1872, the S&P500 index has averaged 6.2% during an election year, and 9.6% on average if a Republican wins. Image: Jefferies
Economic Policy Uncertainty During U.S. Presidential Election Years Chart suggesting that historically, economic policy uncertainty is higher in U.S. presidential election years, particularly uncertainty related to tax policy. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Around Close Presidential Elections History also suggests that predictable elections are a non-event for the U.S. stock market. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
S&P 500 Market Capitalization Since Election Day for Three U.S. Presidents The S&P 500 market cap has increased by $8.65 trillion since the election of President Donald Trump. Image: Bespoke Investment Group
S&P 500 Around Predictable U.S. Presidential Elections History suggests that predictable elections are a non-event for the U.S. stock market. Deutsche Bank is bullish. The official S&P 500 2020 estimate is 3,250. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns and Pre-election Year Since 1950, and over the past 10 & 20 years, the S&P 500 has been positive on average in December. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payroll Growth vs. U.S. Election Outcome Chart showing the relationship between growth trends into U.S. elections and the margin of victory or defeat for incumbent candidates. Historically, the probability of incumbents winning an election increases, as growth trends improve. Image: Bessemer Trust
S&P 500 Return A Year Later Off The Midterm Election Lows A year after the midterm lows, the S&P 500 is up 32% on average. History also shows that the S&P 500 has been higher 17 out of the last 17 times, since 1950. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC