S&P 500 Seasonal Composite 4 Year Presidential Election Cycle The S&P 500’s behavior in 2025 continues to align with the presidential election 4-year seasonal cycle, which provides a useful framework. Image: Nautilus Research
Average Post Election Year for S&P 500 In post-election years, the S&P 500 often experiences weakness in late June and early July, driven mainly by seasonal market behavior. Image: Carson Investment Research
Total Returns for a Selection of Major Global Financial Assets since the U.S. Election Since Inauguration Day, U.S. stocks have significantly underperformed major global financial assets, largely due to trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and a notable shift in investor sentiment toward international markets. Image: Deutsche Bank
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Performance Post-Election Years Since 1950, the U.S. stock market has historically shown strong performance in March, April, and May during post-election years, offering bulls reasons for optimism. Image: Carson Investment Research
Post-Election Day S&P 500 Returns While investors have responded positively to the election results, the true effects of new policies remain uncertain. The market’s robust performance is based on expectations, not realized economic outcomes. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Around Close Presidential Elections The cyclical nature of equity markets around U.S. elections often leads to rallies after the election as policy uncertainties fade. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
One Year S&P 500 Returns Post the Election Date Since 1960, the S&P 500 has shown a tendency for positive returns in the year following U.S. elections—proving that while politicians may change, the stock market still prefers to keep its party hat on! Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
S&P 500 Index Around Election Day – 2016 vs. 2024 Trump’s 2024 win sparks investor optimism, reminiscent of 2016, with promises of tax cuts and deregulation. Wall Street’s post-election party is so wild, even the bears are buying drinks for the bulls! Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Performance in Election Years Bulls are smiling as December is one of the most promising months for U.S. stocks during a presidential election year, with gains occurring 83.3% of the time and an average return of 1.3% since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Around Close Presidential Elections While U.S. elections are significant in shaping economic policy and affecting investor sentiment, they do not consistently drive changes in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Stock Returns Over the Past Presidential Terms Starting on Election Day During President Biden’s tenure, U.S. stocks have surged by 76% starting on election day, reinforcing historical data suggesting that Democratic administrations often correlate with stronger market performance compared to their Republican counterparts. Image: Carson Investment Research