U.S. Yield Curve 18 Months Before Presidential Elections 18 months before presidential elections, a flatter yield curve suggests a greater tendency to predict a change away from the incumbent President’s party Picture source: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Index and Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Presidential Elections Since 1956, history tells us that the S&P 500 is more important than the Fed, within 12 months preceding the U.S. presidential election. Picture source: Renaissance Macro
S&P 500 Index Performance 3-Months Before A Presidential Election The S&P 500 performance 3-months before the U.S. Presidential election is very accurate in predicting the election winner. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential Elections.” Picture source: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Unemployment and U.S. Presidential Elections Americans tend to elect Democrats when unemployment is high, and Republicans when unemployment is low. Picture source: Ken Fisher
Why Is the Dollar So Strong? There are several reasons for this: – Interest rates differential – Strong American economy and no immediate recession– American geopolitical dominance– Market shadow over Donald Trump’s re-election Picture source: The Daily Shot – The Wall Street Journal
Ken Fisher: ‘Third year of a president’s term is positive’ “…because political risk aversion falls as you get to increase gridlock which happends in every midterm election.” Billionaire Ken Fisher thinks there is room to run for the stock market this year. But don’t try to time the market and keep your investment strategy simple.
