S&P 500 Average Performance – Presidential Election Years and Incumbent Party Outcome The S&P 500 performance 90 days before the U.S. Presidential election is very accurate in predicting the election winner. If the S&P 500 is up in the 90 days leading to election day, the incumbent party usually wins. This is true for 90%…
S&P 500 Performance Leading to U.S. Election Date This table shows that over the last 20 election cycles in the U.S., there have been only two instances of market declines in the 12 months leading to the election results. Picture source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Election Years Volatility U.S. election years are on average similarly volatile, but 2020 could be different. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns and Pre-election Year Since 1950, and over the past 10 & 20 years, the S&P 500 has been positive on average in October. Picture source: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Approval Rating Ahead of November Re-Election Bid President Donald Trump’s approval rating is lower than a president should be if he wants to be reelected. Picture source: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 and Pre-Election Year In pre-election years since 1950, the chart suggests that the U.S. stock market doesn’t bottom until Thanksgiving. Picture source: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
U.S. Recession and Presidential Re-election If there isn’t a recession ahead of the U.S. presidential re-election, presidents have won every time since the First World War. The spreadsheet also shows that five of the seven times there was a recession, the current U.S. President lost the re-election. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential…
Presidential Election – U.S. Presidential Score Sheet for the Final Year of the First Term A U.S. president is re-elected when at least consumer confidence and the unemployment rate improve. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch
U.S. Yield Curve 18 Months Before Presidential Elections 18 months before presidential elections, a flatter yield curve suggests a greater tendency to predict a change away from the incumbent President’s party Picture source: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Index and Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Presidential Elections Since 1956, history tells us that the S&P 500 is more important than the Fed, within 12 months preceding the U.S. presidential election. Picture source: Renaissance Macro
