How the S&P 500 Does in an Election Year If the President Is Up for Re-Election or Not Historically, U.S. stocks tend to perform well in election years when the incumbent president is running for re-election, a pattern that seems to be continuing this year. Image: Carson Investment Research
Odds of Winning U.S. Presidential Election Prediction market odds now strongly favor a Trump re-election victory in the 2024 presidential election, a development that may have significant consequences for global financial markets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative U.S. Equity Fund Flows from 1 Year Before to 1 Year After U.S. Presidential Elections Since 2004 Positive flows into U.S. equity funds could help support further gains in the S&P 500 after the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Monthly Volatility for U.S. Election Years Since 1928 The VIX’s historical pattern of rising before U.S. elections and then rapidly plunging afterward is attributed to increased uncertainty and investor fear leading up to the elections. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Implied Probabilities for the U.S. Presidential Election The prediction markets are suggesting a high probability of a Republican sweep in the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections, with potentially far-reaching implications for the political landscape. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 3-Month Performance During an Election Year In Presidential election years, June to August stands out as the strongest 3-month period of the year. The S&P 500 has been up 75% of the time, with an average return of 7.3% since 1928. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Monthly Returns During an U.S. Election Year Historical data shows that the S&P 500 tends to perform strongly during the months of June, July, and August in election years, supporting the expectation of a summer rally. Image: Carson Investment Research
How the S&P 500 Performance After Big Starts to Previous Election Years After a strong start to the election year, the U.S. stock market tends to regain momentum towards the end of Q2 and generally continues to perform well until the end of the year. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance During Election Years The S&P 500 index generally performs poorly until Memorial Day in election years. However, as the year progresses, the market tends to regain momentum and deliver a solid performance. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After >20% Pre-Election Years Following a 20% gain in the pre-election year, the S&P 500 index has consistently shown positive growth during the election year, with an average increase in value of 11.3% since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research