U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Three Fridays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell — and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 0.53%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests…
U.S. Stock Market Valuations – Combined P/E Ratio High P/E ratios in U.S. tech stocks cut both ways — they highlight the sector’s strong growth prospects but also the danger of valuations inflated by unbridled investor optimism. Image: Topdown Charts
Equity Market and Share of the Biggest Sector in the U.S. History keeps repeating on Wall Street — when diversification fades, sector dominance rises. But it never lasts. Sooner or later, shifts in the economy, technology, or geopolitics bring the rotation full circle. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession Markets are pricing roughly 16% odds of a U.S. recession over the next year—slightly above average, but far from panic territory. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Risk appetite shows no sign of fading, buoyed by resilient optimism, a friendly Fed backdrop, and earnings that consistently top expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index With the Fear and Greed Index flashing 78.51, investors are clearly in risk-on mode—momentum rules, and pullbacks are treated as invitations, not warnings. Image: Real Investment Advice
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The S&P 500, once a broad market-based, now moves to the rhythm of its ten biggest stocks, which command over 42% of its value—far more than earnings alone would justify, amplifying volatility and eroding diversification. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Market Capitalization U.S. champions still dominate global markets — and history says that can last. Oil once held the throne for decades. Now Big Tech does it, rich in cash and light on leverage. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median S&P 500 Stock Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization Short interest in the S&P 500 remains elevated. Risk appetite is holding up, but investors are keeping their guard up—using shorts more as a hedge than a sign of fear. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Yearly Performance During Bull Markets History favors the bulls: since 1950, only once has an S&P 500 bull market ended in its fourth year—history therefore favors further upside over a transition to bear market. Image: Carson Investment Research Click the Image to Enlarge
Valuations – Market Values as a Proportion of World GDP Global equities have tripled their weight since the 1990s, jumping from 75% to above 200% of world GDP—an expansion that screams just how far valuations have run. Honestly, what could go wrong? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research