U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Three Fridays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.69%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Will the Fed cut rates by just 25 basis points in 2026? That wouldn’t surprise anyone. Markets might wish for more, but for now, prudence still guides the central bank. Image: The Daily Shot
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Geopolitical tensions are clouding sentiment among U.S. equity fund managers in March, but confidence in the market and the economy remains intact, as many bet the shock will be short-lived. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 16%, only a touch above the long-term average, pointing to a relatively calm risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, the average U.S. bull market has lasted eight years and delivered 288% gains. With this one only in its fourth, there’s good reason to think the run isn’t done. Image: Carson Investment Research
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Risk appetite stays supported by steady global equity inflows, but the mood has cooled with markets entering a phase of consolidation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock Market breadth across the S&P 500 deteriorated sharply last week, a warning sign that strength at the index level may be masking underlying fragility. That’s not usually what the bulls want to see. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index stands at 64.18 after sentiment slipped last week, driven more by a gloomier outlook and rising volatility than by investors cutting equity exposure. Image: Real Investment Advice
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Years of Fed stimulus have taught investors to buy every dip, pushing U.S. markets skyward and away from the real economy. The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street has never been clearer. Image: Real Investment Advice
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums With equity risk premiums low in the U.S. and Japan, investors earn little extra for taking on stock risk over safer bonds, leaving equities a tougher call and prone to disappointment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Relative Equity Market Performance – USA vs. Rest of the World U.S. equities have lagged global peers recently, posting their steepest relative underperformance in 15 years. The leadership baton has passed to cheaper, more cyclical markets overseas, pointing to brighter days for the global cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Research