U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 At last week Thursday’s close, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish, and the S&P 500 confirmed it Friday, closing up 0.42%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market…
10-Year Annualized Performance vs. The Market of The Best Performing U.S. Sector Tech outperformance has been unusually strong and unusually long, marking one of the most concentrated, longest-running spells of sector leadership in recent market history. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk appetite among U.S. equity fund managers held up in July, though it was hardly enthusiastic. Valuations, geopolitics and monetary policy are still weighing on near-term return expectations. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Famous Market Bubbles: Peak-To-Trough Drawdowns Major market bubbles rarely fade quietly. Losses can be severe, and getting back to even can take years, sometimes decades, as leverage unwinds, valuations reset, and confidence takes a hit. Image: Real Investment Advice
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Volatility has cooled over the past month, and sentiment is still risk-on, but the market is far from euphoric, leaving room for more upside into earnings season. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total What once reflected the market now drives it. The top ten S&P 500 names account for 39% of the index and 36% of earnings, lifting valuations and making the ride more volatile. Upside can look smooth. The drop rarely…
S&P 500 and Trend Strength by Market Cap US small caps are leading the breadth picture, with 67% now trading above the 200-day moving average, the highest reading since 2021. That’s a healthy signal, but it doesn’t guarantee the outperformance will last. Image: Hi Mount Research
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index Despite last week’s turbulence, the Greed and Fear Index sits at 80.41, as investors continue to add equity exposure ahead of the earnings season. Image: Real Investment Advice
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession At 11%, market-implied odds of a US recession over the next year sit below their long-run average, pointing to a supportive risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock The S&P 500 52-week market breadth improved meaningfully last week, a development bulls tend to welcome since durable rallies usually require participation beyond a narrow cluster of names. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Market Speculative Trading Indicator Animal spirits are building, but not yet overheating. Retail activity and Goldman Sachs’s Speculative Trading Indicator are firm, still short of past cycle peaks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research