Conference Board U.S. LEI and 6-Month S&P 500 Forward Return A Fed rate cut is good for the S&P 500 when the Conference Board U.S. LEI is positive. Picture source: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Conference Board U.S. LEI and U.S. Treasury 10-Year/2-Year Spread Is a rate cut justified in July? Just take a look at the Conference Board Leading Economic Index and the U.S. Treasury 10-Year/2-Year spread. Picture source: Strategas
Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP Growth This chart shows the strong correlation between the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Year-over-Year and U.S. GDP growth. The U.S. LEI suggests a weakness in U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2019. It is also a good recession indicator. Picture source: Pictet Wealth Management
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index History tells us that before a recession, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines. Picture source: Crescat Capital LLC
Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP This great chart shows the strong correlation between the Conference Board US Leading Index Year-over-Year (white line) and U.S. GDP (blue line). Keep in mind that the LEI is also a good recession indicator. Picture source: Bloomberg, Jeroen Blokland
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators and Recession Warnings The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. has rarely weakened sharply ahead of rate cuts, except in 2007. Currently, it doesn’t suggest that a recession is looming. Picture source: Reuters
Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims Interesting chart showing a good correlation between the consumer confidence spread and jobless claims. As a reminder, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines before a recession. You may also like “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.” Picture source:…
