The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. The U.S. LEI increased by 0.9% in August, suggesting that strong economic growth should continue in the near term. Image: The Conference Board
U.S. Cycle – Spread Between Conference Board Consumer Confidence and UMich Surveys Morgan Stanley expects a “mid-cycle transition”, with a 10%-plus correction for the U.S. stock market. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Conference Board Consumer Confidence and U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Historically, the U.S. Treasury yield curve tends to follow the U.S. consumer. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Index vs. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Chart showing the big disconnect between consumer confidence and the U.S. stock market. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Conference Board Consumer Confidence U.S. consumer confidence falls in August, as more and more companies announce layoffs. Image: The Daily Shot
CPI vs. Conference Board Inflation Expectations Coordinated monetary and fiscal easing should lift inflation higher in this cycle. Image: Pantheon Macroeconomics
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) and S&P 500 This chart suggests that the Conference Board Leading Economic Index doesn’t lead the S&P 500 price performance. Image: Charles Schwab
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. S&P 500 The U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is still high compared to previous bear market bottoms. Image: Tomasz Hońdo
Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Year-over-Year (white line) and U.S. GDP (blue line). The LEI is a good recession indicator. Image: Bloomberg, Jeroen Blokland
Conference Board Confidence Index of CEO vs. U.S. Real Business Investment The trade war has no winners and could curtail U.S. business investment further. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy