Conference Board CEO Business Confidence – Expectations for Economy 6 Months Ahead CEOs in the U.S. remain pessimistic about economic conditions. Outside of U.S. recession, CEO confidence has never been so low. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management
Conference Board Consumer Confidence: Expectations vs. Current Situation and Recessions Is the next recession on its way? Gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Picture source: Lohman Econometrics
Conference Board Leading Economic Index for U.S. (LEI) LEI suggests that the U.S. economy should continue to expand in H2 2019. Picture source: Ken Fisher
Conference Board CEO Confidence Chart showing that CEOs in the U.S. remain pessimistic about current economic conditions. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research
Copper to Gold Ratio and Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) When the copper-to-gold ratio decreases, it is an early warning signal for the economy, meaning that growth optimism is fading. Picture source: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July LEI for the U.S. increased 0.5% in July and suggests that the U.S. economy should continue to expand in H2 2019. Picture source: The Conference Board
Conference Board U.S. LEI and 6-Month S&P 500 Forward Return A Fed rate cut is good for the S&P 500 when the Conference Board U.S. LEI is positive. Picture source: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Conference Board U.S. LEI and U.S. Treasury 10-Year/2-Year Spread Is a rate cut justified in July? Just take a look at the Conference Board Leading Economic Index and the U.S. Treasury 10-Year/2-Year spread. Picture source: Strategas
Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP Growth This chart shows the strong correlation between the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Year-over-Year and U.S. GDP growth. The U.S. LEI suggests a weakness in U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2019. It is also a good recession indicator. Picture source: Pictet Wealth Management
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index History tells us that before a recession, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines. Picture source: Crescat Capital LLC
