The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. The U.S. LEI decreased by 0.3% in February, suggesting a recession for the U.S. economy over the next 12 months. Image: The Conference Board
Recession – Conference Board: Consumer Expectations – Current Conditions Historically, gloomy confidence expectations do not bode well for the U.S. economy. Image: The Daily Shot
Recession – U.S. Conference Board Leading Index (LEI) Does the current decline in the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) guarantee a recession within the next few months? Image: Deutsche Bank
Conference Board U.S. Leading Economic Index vs. ISM Manufacturing New Orders vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI The current reading of the U.S. LEI could result in lower ISM in the next few months. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. High Yield vs. Investment Grade Returns and Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Historically, the outperformance of high yield bonds relative to investment grade bonds has followed the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Recession – Conference Board Leading Economic Index vs. U.S. Industrial Production The Conference Board Leading Economic Index suggests a contraction in U.S. industrial production. Image: BofA Global Research
Earnings – Conference Board CEO Confidence vs. U.S. Corporate Profits YoY Change Should investors be worried about an earnings recession? CEO confidence doesn’t bode well for U.S. corporate profits. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Conference Board Consumer Confidence and U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Historically, the U.S. Treasury yield curve tends to follow U.S. consumer confidence. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Index vs. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index The S&P 500 Index and consumer sentiment have diverged since July 2021. Should investors expect market weakness? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Cycle – Spread Between Conference Board Consumer Confidence and UMich Surveys Morgan Stanley expects a “mid-cycle transition”, with a 10%-plus correction for the U.S. stock market. Image: Morgan Stanley Research