Recession – Conference Board: Consumer Expectations – Current Conditions Is the next U.S. recession on its way? Historically, gloomy confidence expectations do not bode well. Image: The Daily Shot
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. The U.S. LEI decreased by 0.4% in May, suggesting a weaker economic activity in the near term. Image: The Conference Board
Earnings – Conference Board CEO Confidence vs. U.S. Corporate Profits YoY Change Should investors be worried about an earnings recession? CEO confidence doesn’t bode well for U.S. corporate profits. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Conference Board Consumer Confidence and U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Historically, the U.S. Treasury yield curve tends to follow U.S. consumer confidence. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Index vs. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index The S&P 500 Index and consumer sentiment have diverged since July 2021. Should investors expect market weakness? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Cycle – Spread Between Conference Board Consumer Confidence and UMich Surveys Morgan Stanley expects a “mid-cycle transition”, with a 10%-plus correction for the U.S. stock market. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Conference Board Consumer Confidence U.S. consumer confidence falls in August, as more and more companies announce layoffs. Image: The Daily Shot
CPI vs. Conference Board Inflation Expectations Coordinated monetary and fiscal easing should lift inflation higher in this cycle. Image: Pantheon Macroeconomics
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) and S&P 500 This chart suggests that the Conference Board Leading Economic Index doesn’t lead the S&P 500 price performance. Image: Charles Schwab
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. S&P 500 The U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is still high compared to previous bear market bottoms. Image: Tomasz Hońdo