S&P 500 – September Average Monthly Return Since 1928, September has been the only month to post an average loss, falling 1.1%, or 1.5% in midterm years. Its second half also contains the calendar’s weakest two-week stretch. Could history repeat? Image: Real Investment Advice
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 Call it the September drag. Since 1964, the S&P 500 has lost an average 0.6% in the month and finished higher in just 47% of Septembers. Can the market defy the script in 2026? Image: Topdown Charts
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns History paints September as the worst month for U.S. stocks, with the weakest average return since 1950. But this year, August, typically sluggish in midterm years, is already up 3%. Do the odds look different this time? Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1964 September is typically a weak month for U.S. equities, and midterm years tend to make it worse. Once Election Day passes, uncertainty lifts and markets frequently improve. Image: Real Investment Advice
Seasonality – S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1950 Since 1950, the S&P 500 has returned just 1.7% from May to October, versus more than 7% from November to April. When the market hits May near record highs, that already weak stretch has tended to get weaker. Image: Real Investment Advice
60/40 Portfolio Monthly Return Decomposition The classic 60/40 portfolio slid 3.7% in March as stocks and bonds dropped in tandem. Such lockstep declines aren’t unusual when markets brace for higher prices or sticky inflation ahead. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Average Monthly Return Above and Below 200-Day Moving Average Historically, the S&P 500 has performed well in April, averaging gains of over 2% since 1950 when starting below its 200-day moving average. Image: Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. and Bloomberg
Seasonality – S&P 500 Monthly Returns The performance of the U.S. stock market in January is often considered as a key indicator for the year ahead. Although January’s stock returns can seem erratic, the median return has been around 1.5% since 1950. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Monthly Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 4 Seasonality provides valuable insights into stock market trends. Historically, after experiencing weaknesses in September and October during election years, the S&P 500 tends to rebound with strong returns in November and December. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Monthly Returns During an U.S. Election Year The S&P 500 has historically performed well in August during presidential election years, contributing to an overall positive market sentiment and potentially extending the summer rally. Image: Carson Investment Research
Seasonality – Nasdaq Monthly Returns Seasonality is very useful for assessing probabilities, not certainties. This is one factor that can impact the Nasdaq price. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research