S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns The S&P 500 takes a hit of about 14% at some point each year. Investors hate it, but they have been rewarded over time: the index finished higher in 35 of the past 46 years. That’s the price investors pay for long-term gains. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset…
S&P 500 and Predecessors, Calendar-Year Price Returns Since 1928 Since 1928, the S&P 500 and its predecessors have finished the year up in 73% of calendar years. Risk is always there, but staying structurally bearish means consistently betting against a three-in-four odds of positive return. Image: Real Investment Advice
PHLX Semiconductor Index Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns Every year, the PHLX Semiconductor Index makes investors sit through an average 30% drawdown. But it has closed higher in 20 of the last 31 years. Welcome to the cost of long-term alpha in semis. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Index Max Pullback per Calendar Year March’s 9% pullback may already be the year’s deepest. If so, the market has less room for another major selloff. Back-to-back drawdowns of that size are rare, giving bulls a reason to stay optimistic. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Shiller CAPE vs. Subsequent Calendar-Year Total Return In the short run, the Shiller CAPE ratio often gets lost in the market’s noise. Over five to ten years, however, its warning grows clearer: the higher the valuations, the thinner the returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Distribution of 1-Year S&P 500 Returns in Non-Recession Years Double‑digit losses are a rarity outside recessions, just 5% of the time. But when growth kicks in, the S&P 500 usually surges, notching double-digit gains nearly 70% of the time and ending higher in 85% of those years. Image: Carson Investment Research
Average Equity Fund Flow by Calendar Month Over the Past Decade Excluding U.S. Election Years History says year-end momentum has legs: outside U.S. election years, equity flows spike in December and stay strong through Q1—adding weight to the case for retail strength through early 2026. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
S&P 500 and Stoxx600 – Q3 2025 Reporting Season Calendar About 16% of S&P 500 firms report earnings this week, but the real test comes next week, with roughly 44% set to deliver results—a pivotal moment that could set the tone for the rest of the season. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Performance When There is a 6-Day Win Streak During a Calendar Year Bulls once again have reason to smile: a six-day S&P 500 winning streak has preceded positive annual performance in 15 out of 16 years since 2005, with 2018 being the only exception. Image: Carson Investment Research
MSCI AC World Calendar Year Returns vs. Intra-Year Declines Despite median intra-year drops of 15%, the global equity index ended positively in 34 of the past 45 years—highlighting the value of long-term investing over reacting to short-term volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Largest Calendar Year Peak to Trough S&P 500 Drawdown The S&P 500 has shown resilience over extended periods, often delivering positive annual returns despite experiencing significant intra-year volatility. Over the past 40 years, the median annual drawdown of the index has been 10%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research