Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index Before a coming recession, watch closely the financial conditions indicator. It provides an update on US financial conditions in money markets, debt, equity markets and the traditional & “shadow” banking systems. This superb indicator is key for forecasting the future. If financial conditions tighten sharply, then it indicates a…
Financial Stress Index and Financial Conditions Index If financial conditions tighten sharply, then it indicates a coming slowdown or recession. Currently, the St. Louis Financial Stress Index and the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index are at lowest and below zero. The average value of the St. Louis Financial Stress Index is designed to be zero…
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index Before a coming recession, also watch the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index for forecasting the future. It uses 18 weekly data series to measure financial stress in the market: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress.…
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