Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index and Recessions

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index and Recessions This indicator provides an update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt, equity markets and the traditional & “shadow” banking systems. If financial conditions tighten sharply, this indicates a coming slowdown.

Effect of Financial Conditions on U.S. Real GDP Growth

Effect of Financial Conditions on U.S. Real GDP Growth Chart suggesting an improvement of U.S. real GDP growth in 2020, as the impulse from financial conditions turns positive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Financial Conditions

U.S. Financial Conditions Relative to the low VIX and favourable financial conditions, the equity risk premium remains quite high. Image: Fidelity Investments

Financial Conditions and Capital Expenditures

Financial Conditions and Capital Expenditures Easier financial conditions don’t boost capex, amid the current uncertainty over tariffs and the slowdown in global economies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Trade War and Financial Conditions Index

Trade War and Financial Conditions Index The trade war has tightened the Goldman Sachs FCI by about 60bp cumulatively. The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (FCI) is a weighted sum of a long-term corporate yield, a short-term bond yield, the exchange rate, and a stock market variable. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Financial Conditions Index

ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Financial Conditions Index Great chart suggesting that the ISM Manufacturing Index could be below 50 soon, and bounce back due to the drop in interest rates around the world. Image: Nordea and Macrobond