Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index and Recessions This indicator provides an update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt, equity markets and the traditional & “shadow” banking systems. If financial conditions tighten sharply, this suggests a coming slowdown or recession.
Effect of Financial Conditions on U.S. Real GDP Growth Chart suggesting an improvement of U.S. real GDP growth in 2020, as the impulse from financial conditions turns positive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Financial Conditions Relative to the low VIX and favourable financial conditions, the equity risk premium remains quite high. Image: Fidelity Investments
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index and S&P 500 Financial conditions remain easy, which is historically bullish for U.S. equities. Image: BofA Global Research
GSER Financial Conditions Index and U.S. GDP Growth Chart suggesting that financial conditions should improve U.S. GDP growth. Image: Macronond, SEB X-Asset Research
Financial Conditions and Capital Expenditures Easier financial conditions don’t boost capex, amid the current uncertainty over tariffs and the slowdown in global economies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Effect on U.S. GDP Growth from Financial Conditions, Fiscal Policy and Trade War Financial Conditions should offset the effect of the trade war in 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Financial Conditions Index and Global Manufacturing PMI Chart suggesting that easier financial conditions should feed through to growth, unless monetary policy is less effective. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Trade War and Financial Conditions Index The trade war has tightened the Goldman Sachs FCI by about 60bp cumulatively. The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (FCI) is a weighted sum of a long-term corporate yield, a short-term bond yield, the exchange rate, and a stock market variable. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Financial Conditions Index Great chart suggesting that the ISM Manufacturing Index could be below 50 soon, and bounce back due to the drop in interest rates around the world. Image: Nordea and Macrobond