Trade War and Financial Conditions Index

Trade War and Financial Conditions Index The trade war has tightened the Goldman Sachs FCI by about 60bp cumulatively. The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (FCI) is a weighted sum of a long-term corporate yield, a short-term bond yield, the exchange rate, and a stock market variable. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Financial Conditions Index

ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Financial Conditions Index Great chart suggesting that the ISM Manufacturing Index could be below 50 soon, and bounce back due to the drop in interest rates around the world. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index Before a coming recession, watch closely the financial conditions indicator. It provides an update on US financial conditions in money markets, debt, equity markets and the traditional & “shadow” banking systems. This superb indicator is key for forecasting the future. If financial conditions tighten sharply, then it indicates a…

Financial Stress and Conditions

Financial Stress Index and Financial Conditions Index If financial conditions tighten sharply, then it indicates a coming slowdown or recession. Currently, the St. Louis Financial Stress Index and the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index are at lowest and below zero. The average value of the St. Louis Financial Stress Index is designed to be zero…

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index Before a coming recession, also watch the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index for forecasting the future. It uses 18 weekly data series to measure financial stress in the market: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress.…

U.S. Consumer Sentiment

U.S. Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is more sensitive to financial markets, whereas the Conference Board Index reflects labor market conditions. Picture source: J.P. Morgan

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