Survey: View on the Global Economy In the latest BofA Merrill Lynch edition of the FX and rates sentiment survey, a majority of respondents thinks that “the global uncertainty shock has been so persistent that lasting damage has been done and policy action will be too little, too late.” Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch
NFIB Survey Leads U.S. Employment The U.S. economy is not unaffected by the trade war and global slowdown. This chart suggests that U.S. employment is slowing down. The chart also suggests that the NFIB survey leads U.S. employment by 6 months. Picture source: Rothschild & Co Asset Management Europe
Drawdowns in S&P 500 vs. ISM Surveys Interesting chart showing drawdowns in S&P 500 versus ISM surveys. Weakness in the manufacturing and service sectors matters. Picture source: Sampension
US-China Trade Deal – BofA Survey The September edition of the BofA survey shows that 76% of clients expect a trade deal eventually, but it will take time. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch Credit Investor Survey
U.S. Recession Probability – BofA Survey The September edition of the BofA survey shows that clients see a 25% chance of recession over the next 12 months. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch Credit Investor Survey
U.S. Nonfarm Employment and NFIB Survey If the trade war continues, it will have serious negative repercussions on the American economy. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Leads Real U.S. GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey leads real U.S. GDP growth by 3 months. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research
Survey: What Is The Most Effective Risk-Off Hedge? In the latest BofA Merrill Lynch edition of the FX and rates sentiment survey, a majority of respondents preferred 10-year Treasuries as the most effective risk-off hedge. Only 6% of respondents chose gold and the yen. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Richmond Fed Survey The Richmond Fed survey suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index could plunge to 45, but the Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a better predictor over the past two years. Picture source: Lohman Econometrics
Weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bulls push above bears, but when doubt and fear are still present, it does not usually look like a major market top. Picture source: Reuters
