AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors are still playing it safe, with the AAII bull-bear spread stuck below zero. With so much uncertainty still in the air, that’s no surprise. Sentiment usually lags until there’s more clarity. Image: The Daily Chartbook
U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data Economists call it a “soft recession” when factories slow but services keep humming. That resilience on the services side is what kept the U.S. out of a recession. But if services begin to crack, things could shift quickly. Image: Real Investment Advice
Survey – Biggest Risks to Market Stability in 2026 A rare consensus is emerging among investors on what could shake markets in 2026. Deutsche Bank’s latest survey finds AI and tech bubble jitters leading the pack, overshadowing concerns about Fed autonomy and private credit stress. Click the Image to Enlarge
Survey – Where Do You Expect 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields to Be One Year from Now? Deutsche Bank’s latest survey shows that 52% of participants expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise above 4.25% next year, with the bank’s strategists calling for 4.45% by the end of 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank
Survey – 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields While expectations tilt toward falling 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, plenty of voices argue for a rise, citing everything from sticky inflation to uncertain rate cuts and uneven economic growth. Image: Deutsche Bank
University of Michigan Survey – Consumer Who Expect Higher Unemployment over the Next 12 Months The latest University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers indicate that a significantly higher share of Americans now expect unemployment to rise over the next year, reaching the highest level since 2009. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Survey – What Is the Biggest Risk to the U.S. Exceptionalism Theme? While the U.S. economy has shown resilience, a recent survey highlights sticky inflation as the biggest risk to U.S. exceptionalism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Survey – U.S. Inflation and EU Inflation Inflation expectations are diverging sharply between the United States and Europe. While inflation in the U.S. shows signs of recovery, European expectations have notably declined, dipping below 2% for the first time since late 2021. Image: Deutsche Bank
How Survey Responders Think the S&P 500 Will Perform Over the Year Ahead 35% of respondents expect the S&P 500 index to appreciate between 5% and 10% by the end of 2025, while 24% expect it to decline, and 23% predict an increase exceeding 10%. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Labor Market – Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs “Plentiful” Minus Jobs “Hard to Get” Shifts in consumer perceptions regarding job availability suggest notable changes that could potentially lead to a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Survey – Percentage of Investors Expecting Landing Scenarios In BofA’s August credit investor survey, 74% of investors anticipate a soft landing, reflecting a significant increase in optimism despite recent market volatility. Image: BofA Global Research