Survey: What Is The Most Effective Risk-Off Hedge? In the latest BofA Merrill Lynch edition of the FX and rates sentiment survey, a majority of respondents preferred 10-year Treasuries as the most effective risk-off hedge. Only 6% of respondents chose gold and the yen. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Richmond Fed Survey The Richmond Fed survey suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index could plunge to 45, but the Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a better predictor over the past two years. Picture source: Lohman Econometrics
Weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bulls push above bears, but when doubt and fear are still present, it does not usually look like a major market top. Picture source: Reuters
AAII Survey Bullish Votes, Sentix Bullish Votes US Equities, vs. S&P 500 since 2017 Low AAII Sentiment Survey bullish votes of 24.71%, and low Sentix bullish votes for US equities of 12.84%, have corresponded with positive forward returns. Picture source: Sentix, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Most CFOs Expect A Recession Next Year CFO Survey: two-thirds of CFOs predict a recession by the end of 2020. Picture source: Charles Schwab, Duke CFO Magazine
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Predictors The chart shows that the Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a better predictor of the ISM Manufacturing Index over the past two years. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond
Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown? If history helps us to predict the future, a recession is coming when the Leading Index for the United States is below 1.Today, it stands at 1.28 and is rising, suggesting a recession is not imminent. “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of…
Increased Tariffs Between the U.S. and China: Is It Bad or Good for the U.S.? The survey shows the huge gap between Republicans and Democrats. Picture source: The New York Times Company
Mean Probability That U.S. Stock Prices Will Be Higher One Year From Now – Survey of Consumer Expectations – The mean probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher one year from now is 41.03% as of April 2019. Picture source: New York Fed Survey of Consumer
Are We Near a Recession? “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply…
