S&P 500 vs. U.S. CEO Confidence Survey Economic Expectations The S&P 500 is in “Fear of Missing Out” mode, while CEO confidence has fallen to its lowest level in a decade. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey Leads U.S. Real GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey leads U.S. real GDP by 3 months. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Survey – Credit Investors: What Are Your Biggest Concerns? The latest edition of BofAML credit survey shows that U.S. credit investors are concerned about the 2020 U.S. election, the trade war, and China. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Credit Investor Survey
Survey – U.S. Recession Probability U.S. recession fears are fading and U.S. credit investors now see a 21% chance of recession over the next 12 months. It was 25% in September. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Credit Investor Survey
Survey: US-China Trade Agreements About the “phase one deal”, the latest BofA Merrill Lynch edition of the FX and rates sentiment survey shows that 65% of fund managers see a skinny agreement, delaying some tariff increases. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
Central Banks Actions Lead Emerging Markets Manufacturing Surveys Chart suggesting that central banks actions lead emerging markets manufacturing surveys by 8 months. The net number of EM central banks cutting rates has reached 50% of 30 central banks. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Blue Chip Economic Indicators Surveys and Average Probability of U.S. Recession The probability of U.S. recession increases to 39% for 2020, based on Blue Chip Economic Indicators surveys. Image: J.P. Morgan
Survey: View on the Global Economy In the latest BofA Merrill Lynch edition of the FX and rates sentiment survey, a majority of respondents thinks that “the global uncertainty shock has been so persistent that lasting damage has been done and policy action will be too little, too late.” Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
NFIB Survey Leads U.S. Employment The U.S. economy is not unaffected by the trade war and global slowdown. This chart suggests that U.S. employment is slowing down. The chart also suggests that the NFIB survey leads U.S. employment by 6 months. Image: Rothschild & Co Asset Management Europe
Drawdowns in S&P 500 vs. ISM Surveys Interesting chart showing drawdowns in S&P 500 versus ISM surveys. Weakness in the manufacturing and service sectors matters. Image: Sampension