AAII Sentiment Survey A persistently negative AAII bull-bear spread tells the story of uneasy sentiment—but for contrarians, this kind of gloom often marks the start of opportunity, not the edge of a selloff. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Survey – 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields While expectations tilt toward falling 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, plenty of voices argue for a rise, citing everything from sticky inflation to uncertain rate cuts and uneven economic growth. Image: Deutsche Bank
University of Michigan Survey – Consumer Who Expect Higher Unemployment over the Next 12 Months The latest University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers indicate that a significantly higher share of Americans now expect unemployment to rise over the next year, reaching the highest level since 2009. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Survey – What Is the Biggest Risk to the U.S. Exceptionalism Theme? While the U.S. economy has shown resilience, a recent survey highlights sticky inflation as the biggest risk to U.S. exceptionalism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Survey – U.S. Inflation and EU Inflation Inflation expectations are diverging sharply between the United States and Europe. While inflation in the U.S. shows signs of recovery, European expectations have notably declined, dipping below 2% for the first time since late 2021. Image: Deutsche Bank
How Survey Responders Think the S&P 500 Will Perform Over the Year Ahead 35% of respondents expect the S&P 500 index to appreciate between 5% and 10% by the end of 2025, while 24% expect it to decline, and 23% predict an increase exceeding 10%. Image: Deutsche Bank
Survey – Where Do You Expect 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields to Be One Year from Now? The average yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is projected to be around 4.2%, with only 4% of respondents believing that yields will exceed 5% by the end of 2025. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Labor Market – Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs “Plentiful” Minus Jobs “Hard to Get” Shifts in consumer perceptions regarding job availability suggest notable changes that could potentially lead to a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Survey – Percentage of Investors Expecting Landing Scenarios In BofA’s August credit investor survey, 74% of investors anticipate a soft landing, reflecting a significant increase in optimism despite recent market volatility. Image: BofA Global Research
Survey – Credit Investors: What Are Your Biggest Concerns? The 2024 U.S. election outcome could significantly impact fiscal policy, debt, interest rates, inflation, and economic growth, which are key concerns for U.S. credit investors. Image: BofA Credit Investor Survey
U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data A “soft recession” occurs when the manufacturing side of the U.S. economy contracts while services remain robust, leading to a period of slower economic activity. Image: Real Investment Advice