Survey: What Is The Most Effective Risk-Off Hedge?

Survey: What Is The Most Effective Risk-Off Hedge? In the latest BofA Merrill Lynch edition of the FX and rates sentiment survey, a majority of respondents preferred 10-year Treasuries as the most effective risk-off hedge. Only 6% of respondents chose gold and the yen. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Richmond Fed Survey

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Richmond Fed Survey The Richmond Fed survey suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index could plunge to 45, but the Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a better predictor over the past two years. Picture source: Lohman Econometrics

Weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

Weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bulls push above bears, but when doubt and fear are still present, it does not usually look like a major market top. Picture source: Reuters

Most CFOs Expect A Recession Next Year

Most CFOs Expect A Recession Next Year CFO Survey: two-thirds of CFOs predict a recession by the end of 2020. Picture source: Charles Schwab, Duke CFO Magazine

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Predictors

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Predictors The chart shows that the Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a better predictor of the ISM Manufacturing Index over the past two years. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond

Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown?

Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown? If history helps us to predict the future, a recession is coming when the Leading Index for the United States is below 1.Today, it stands at 1.28 and is rising, suggesting a recession is not imminent. “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of…

Are We Near a Recession?

Are We Near a Recession? “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply…