S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle U.S. stocks often experience weakness in Q1 of a post-election year, reflecting uncertainty tied to new policies and economic adjustments. However, the second quarter typically shows stronger performance, offering hope for recovery. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Returns Based on 4-Year Presidential Cycle Bulls have reason to be cheerful as post-election years tend to bring solid market gains. Since 1985, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of over 18% during these years, with positive results in nine out of ten cases. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Around Close Presidential Elections The cyclical nature of equity markets around U.S. elections often leads to rallies after the election as policy uncertainties fade. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle The U.S. stock market typically outperforms in the first two years of a President’s second term compared to a new President’s term, suggesting a potentially strong year for stocks and giving bulls reason to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research
Stock Returns During Year One of a President’s Term Since Ronald Reagan’s second term, U.S. stocks have demonstrated robust performance in the year following presidential elections, with positive returns in 9 out of the past 10 post-election years. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Stocks Returns during Year One of a President’s Second Term The performance of U.S. stocks during the first year of a second presidential term has shown mixed results historically, but recent trends suggest a more favorable outlook. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Around Close Presidential Elections While U.S. elections are significant in shaping economic policy and affecting investor sentiment, they do not consistently drive changes in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Stock Returns Over the Past Presidential Terms Starting on Election Day During President Biden’s tenure, U.S. stocks have surged by 76% starting on election day, reinforcing historical data suggesting that Democratic administrations often correlate with stronger market performance compared to their Republican counterparts. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance by President While the S&P 500 has generally trended upward under both Democratic and Republican administrations, average gains have historically been higher during Democratic presidencies. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Macro Research
Consecutive Presidential Elections Where the Incumbent Party in the White House Is Defeated For the first time since the late 1800s, the incumbent party has lost three consecutive presidential elections. Politicians are unable to deliver against expectations in a world of lower growth and fairly regular shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank
30-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Around Presidential Election Dates Historically, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have tended to rise after Republican victories and fall after Democratic victories, reflecting market perceptions of each party’s economic policies. Image: Deutsche Bank