President Trump Tweets Contribute to Volatility

President Trump Tweets Contribute to Volatility On days when President Trump tweets more than usual, the U.S. stock market tends to fall on average by 9bp. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch

U.S. Recession and Presidential Re-election

U.S. Recession and Presidential Re-election If there isn’t a recession ahead of the U.S. presidential re-election, presidents have won every time since the First World War. The spreadsheet also shows that five of the seven times there was a recession, the current U.S. President lost the re-election. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential…

S&P 500 Performance by President, from Reagan to Trump

S&P 500 Performance by President, from Reagan to Trump For President Trump, the stock market is a scorecard. This chart shows the S&P 500 performance across different presidencies, from Reagan to Trump. Picture source: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Yield Curve 18 Months Before Presidential Elections

U.S. Yield Curve 18 Months Before Presidential Elections 18 months before presidential elections, a flatter yield curve suggests a greater tendency to predict a change away from the incumbent President’s party Picture source: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Index Performance 3-Months Before A Presidential Election

S&P 500 Index Performance 3-Months Before A Presidential Election The S&P 500 performance 3-months before the U.S. Presidential election is very accurate in predicting the election winner. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential Elections.” Picture source: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC

Unemployment and U.S. Presidential Elections

Unemployment and U.S. Presidential Elections Americans tend to elect Democrats when unemployment is high, and Republicans when unemployment is low. Picture source: Ken Fisher

How Does President Trump’s Twitter Use Impact the US Stock Market?

How Does President Trump’s Twitter Use Impact the US Stock Market? Trump’s tweets exacerbate short-term volatility and can create unpredictable short-term market fluctuations. That’s the reason why Warren Buffett stays focused rightly on the long term. Picture source: Bloomberg