When Will the U.S. Economy Go into Recession?

When Will the U.S. Economy Go into Recession? At the Goldman Sachs annual Global Strategy Conference this week, most clients expect a recession in 2021 or 2022. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In December, U.S. real retail sales at 3.5% YoY, and the trend remains up. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions

KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index is stable, and labor market conditions remain above their long-run average. Historically, a negative value is a necessary, but not sufficient requirement for recessions: it means that labor market conditions are below their long-run average.

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -0.54% YoY in December, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.

U.S. Jobless Claims and Recession

U.S. Jobless Claims and Recession Currently, U.S. jobless claims look good. This chart suggests that jobless claims tend to rise above the red line, prior to a recession.