U.S. Recession – NBER Indicators

U.S. Recession – NBER Indicators The NBER indicators do not suggest that the U.S. economy is in recession at this time. Image: Apollo Global Management

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -0.43% YoY in January, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001, 2007 and 2020, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.

U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Recessions

U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Recessions Historically, a steepening U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve has preceded recessions. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales fell in December to 441K (annualized). Historically, before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline. Click the Image to Enlarge

Probability of a U.S. Recession

Probability of a U.S. Recession The 12-month ahead U.S. recession probability continues to increase. Image: J.P. Morgan