U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In January, U.S. real retail sales stand at -2.38% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

S&P 500 with Start of Rate Cut Cycles and U.S. Recessions

S&P 500 with Start of Rate Cut Cycles and U.S. Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has tended to post positive returns in the 12 months following the Fed’s first rate cut, unless the U.S. economy enters recession. Image: Deutsche Bank

Probability of U.S. Recession Over the Next 12 Months

Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year Goldman Sachs has expressed confidence in the U.S. economy and forecasts a 15% chance of a recession in the next one year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales rose in January to 485K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -6.96% YoY in January, tend to be a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs do not always guarantee a recession. However, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY…

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of recession stands at 0.74%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…

FMS Recession Expectations

FMS Recession Expectations Is it unlikely that the U.S. economy will experience a recession in the next 12 months? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

U.S. Recession and Fed Hiking Cycle

U.S. Recession and Fed Hiking Cycle Based on the lags between rate hikes and previous cycles, the likelihood of a recession in the United States remains a topic of discussion. Image: Deutsche Bank