KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions

KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index is stable, and labor market conditions remain above their long-run average. Historically, a negative value is a necessary, but not sufficient requirement for recessions: it means that labor market conditions are below their long-run average.

Global Debt by Sector and Recession Risk

Global Debt by Sector and Recession Risk With global growth slowing, this chart suggests that the biggest recession risk is corporate deleveraging. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In October, U.S. real retail sales decreased to 1.3% YoY, but the trend remains up. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

U.S. Recession Chances

U.S. Recession Chances The recession probability model developed by Bloomberg economists now shows 26% chance of recession within 12 months. Image: Bloomberg

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities Currently, the probability of recession is 2.76%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history tells us that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…

Survey – U.S. Recession Probability

Survey – U.S. Recession Probability U.S. recession fears are fading and U.S. credit investors now see a 21% chance of recession over the next 12 months. It was 25% in September. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Credit Investor Survey