U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In January, U.S. building permits rose 1,881 million (annualized). Historically, before recessions, building permits tend to peak and then decline.
U.S. Recessionary Manufacturing Activity U.S. manufacturing sectors are improving, with less than 50% of them in contraction. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In January, U.S. real retail sales stand at 5.98% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -8.34% YoY in January, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of recession stands at 2.30%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…
U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales fell in December to 458K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales tend to peak and then decline. Click the Image to Enlarge
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 13% in January. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Average U.S. Yield Curve Level and U.S. Recessions The U.S. yield curve is likely to steepen further. Image: Scotiabank GBM Portfolio Strategy
Bank Stock Performance During Previous Recessions Historically, bank stocks tend to outperform the S&P 500 in the year following a recession. Image: BofA Global Research
FMS Investors – Early Cycle vs. Recession 70% of BofA FMS investors think the global economy is in an early-cycle phase. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey