U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales fell in June to 477K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales tend to peak and then decline. Click the Image to Enlarge
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, increased to 7.6% in July. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Historical Length of Recessions and Market Declines While Fed tapering is a risk, can investors estimate the time until the next U.S. recession? Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In June, U.S. building permits fall to 1,598 million (annualized). Historically, before recessions, building permits tend to peak and then decline.
U.S. Expansions and Recessions The coronavirus recession lasted only two months, which is by far the shortest U.S. recession on record. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and U.S. NBER Recessions As the economic recovery becomes more mature, the yield curve tends to flatten. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In June, U.S. real retail sales stand at 12.01% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
U.S. Business Cycle Indicator and NBER Recession This business cycle indicator reflects a stronger than expected recovery in the United States. Image: BofA Global Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at 24.18% YoY in June, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of recession stands at 0.44%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…