U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in May to 450K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Oil Price Deviation from 48-Month Moving Average and U.S. Recessions While rising oil prices increase inflationary pressures and pose risks to economic growth, data suggest that current oil prices do not point toward a U.S. recession. Image: Real Investment Advice
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months stands at 18%, just above its long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Despite recent improvements, the risk of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months remains above the historical average, driven by ongoing tariff-related uncertainties and their economic repercussions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
WTI Crude Oil and Recessions Sharp increases in oil prices—often doubling—have been a consistent and significant signal preceding U.S. recessions, making oil prices a key economic indicator to watch for early signs of economic downturns. Image: Yahoo Finance
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In May, U.S. building permits declined to 1.393 million, below expectations. Historically, they tend to peak and then decline before economic recessions Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In May, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.89% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability The market-implied probability of a U.S. recession over the next twelve months stands at 18%, slightly above its long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate A drop in the Sahm Rule indicator below 0.5 is a positive sign, as it suggests the rule is not currently signaling a U.S. recession—a generally reassuring indicator for economic health. Image: Bloomberg
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 25.6% in June. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -5.12% YoY in May. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…