Money Market Fund Flows and Probability of a Recession in the Next 12 Months Chart suggesting that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months has decreased. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions U.S. building permits sales rose to 1.46 million (annualized). Historically, before recessions, building permits peak and then decline.
KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index is stable, and labor market conditions remain above their long-run average. Historically, a negative value is a necessary, but not sufficient requirement for recessions: it means that labor market conditions are below their long-run average.
Global Debt by Sector and Recession Risk With global growth slowing, this chart suggests that the biggest recession risk is corporate deleveraging. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Business Activity Index and Recessions This chart suggests that a recession in the U.S. is not imminent. Image: Paolo Cardena
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In October, U.S. real retail sales decreased to 1.3% YoY, but the trend remains up. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Probability of U.S. Recession in 12 Months Based on the Slope of the Yield Curve The yield curve slope suggests odds of a recession in the next 12 months at less than 30% in the U.S., and the continuation of economic expansion. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
U.S. Recession Chances The recession probability model developed by Bloomberg economists now shows 26% chance of recession within 12 months. Image: Bloomberg
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities Currently, the probability of recession is 2.76%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history tells us that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
Survey – U.S. Recession Probability U.S. recession fears are fading and U.S. credit investors now see a 21% chance of recession over the next 12 months. It was 25% in September. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Credit Investor Survey
