Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 15.9% in November. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In October, U.S. real retail sales at 4.42% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In October, U.S. building permits are stable at 1.545 million (annualized). Historically, before recessions, building permits tend to peak and then decline.
U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales rose in October to 467K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales tend to peak and then decline. You may also like “Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator.”
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -11.75% YoY in October, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
Cyclical/Defensive Ratio vs. U.S. Recessions Cyclicals tend to outperform during periods of economic strength. Image: Variant Perception Research
FMS Recession Expectations Could this be a bullish sign as FMS investors are becoming more optimistic? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
U.S. Business Cycle Indicator and NBER Recession This business cycle indicator reflects a stronger than expected recovery in the United States. Image: BofA Global Research
Cumulative GDP Decline During Recessions in the U.S. The cumulative decline in U.S. GDP is -10.2%. This is one of the deepest recession on record. Image: Oxford Economics
Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes Chart suggesting the probability of U.S. recession as currently priced across asset classes. Image: J.P. Morgan