Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.48%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 14.5%, tilting the narrative toward continued expansion. This cycle still has room to run. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In March, U.S. building permits declined to 1.372 million, below expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The market is pricing a 13% chance of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months, just below the long-term average, keeping the risk backdrop relatively subdued. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.66% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just a 13% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while Goldman Sachs sees it closer to 30%. Is the market too complacent? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly in March to 342K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -1.68% YoY in April. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
U.S. Unemployment Rate and Recessions The unemployment rate moving above its three-year average has preceded every U.S. recession since 1950. The latest crossover came in June 2024. Since then, no recession has followed, raising questions if this time is different. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Recession Probability Recession odds in the U.S. have dropped to levels that favor continued growth rather than an imminent slump. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability Markets now price in just a 14% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, keeping recession fears modest and consistent with a moderate-risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research