What’s The Risk Of An Earnings Recession in 2019? Maybe Less Than You May Think

What’s The Risk Of An Earnings Recession in 2019? Maybe Less Than You May Think US-China trade uncertainty is the enemy of growth, and the impact of tariffs will weigh on corporate profits. But it looks like we’ll avert an earnings recession in 2019 if a trade deal with China is reached this summer. Picture…

Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low

Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low Even if the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, this indicator forecasts a recession when the 3-month moving average national unemployment rate exceeds its minimum over previous 12 months by 0.5 pct points. Picture source : Claudia Sahm, Board of Governors of the…

U.S. Stock Ownership Still Below Pre-Recession Levels

U.S. Stock Ownership Still Below Pre-Recession Levels Despite the strong performance of stocks since 2009, U.S. stock ownership remains lower than it was before the Great Recession or the Dotcom bubble. Picture source: Gallup

The “Small Businesses Optimism Index” Is a Good Recession Indicator

The “Small Businesses Optimism Index” Is a Good Recession Indicator This is not the perfect recession indicator, but when the Small Businesses Optimism Index falls below 100 or more likely below 95, then the risk of a recession remains high.  And when the Small Businesses Optimism Index hits an all-time high, a recession may occur…

Why Is “Small Businesses Planning to Hire” a Good Recession Indicator?

Why Is “Small Businesses Planning to Hire” a Good Recession Indicator? When the percentage of Small Businesses Planning to Hire, falls from a high level to less than 10%, then the risk of a recession remains high. That’s not the case today, there is no recession coming. Picture source: National Federation of Independent Business