U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads and Recessions U.S. high-yield credit spreads in April 2025 show little sign of recession fears, remaining well below levels observed during previous downturns. Image: Deutsche Bank
Maximum S&P 500 Drawdowns and Recessions If the U.S. economy enters a recession due to Trump’s tariffs, the stock market could decline further. The market appears not to have fully priced in the risk of a recession. Image: Yahoo Finance
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In March, building permits in the U.S. rose to 1.482 million, exceeding expectations. Historically, they tend to peak and then decline before economic recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In March, U.S. real retail sales stand at 2.15% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Goldman Sachs revised its 12-month US recession forecast to 45%, down from 65%, citing reduced risks after the tariff pause. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession The rise in the one-year recession probability based on the S&P 500 and BBB spread is seen as a negative sign, highlighting economic risks that could affect market sentiment and change investment strategies. Image: J.P. Morgan
Earnings – Peak to Trough Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS During Recessions Historically, recessions since World War II have caused a median 13% decline in S&P 500 EPS, often leading to substantial index losses. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -5.55% YoY in March. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
NBER Recession Dating vs. Market Realization Historically, the S&P 500 peaks and declines 6–16 months before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares a U.S. recession, making it a reliable leading indicator. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Declines Around Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has fallen by a median 24% from peak-to-trough around economic recessions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.38%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…