S&P 500 Index Declines Around Recessions

S&P 500 Index Declines Around Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has fallen by a median 24% from peak to trough around recessions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In April, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

ISM Manufacturing PMI and Recession Probability

ISM Manufacturing PMI and Recession Probability Morgan Stanley’s recession indicator signals a 27% probability of a downturn in the next 12 months. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at 12.9% YoY in April, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001, 2007 and 2020, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales rose in March to 468K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline. Click the Image to Enlarge