Search Results for: recession

Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Goldman Sachs estimates a 25% probability that the U.S. economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -2.65% YoY in May, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001, 2007 and 2020, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession was on the horizon in the United States.

Recession – Conference Board: Consumer Expectations – Current Conditions In the past, gloomy confidence expectations have not been a positive sign for the U.S. economy. Image: The Daily Shot

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of recession stands at 0.44%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales rose in April to 538K (annualized). Historically, before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, as they are a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 79.3% in May. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI The LEI and the Economic Output Composite Index are signaling that a U.S. recession is around the corner. Image: Real Investment Advice

Rolling Fed Hikes/Cuts Over the Last 12 Months and Recessions When the Fed increases interest rates too quickly or aggressively, it can lead to a recession. Image: Deutsche Bank

Recession – U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims U.S. continuing jobless claims can serve as a warning sign of an upcoming recession. Image: Bloomberg

Earnings – Peak to Trough Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS During Recessions In the event of a U.S. recession, Goldman Sachs predicts that S&P 500 earnings could fall by 10% in 2023. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research