U.S. Recession – NBER Indicators The NBER indicators do not suggest that the U.S. economy is in recession at this time. Image: Apollo Global Management
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -0.43% YoY in January, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001, 2007 and 2020, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI The LEI and the Economic Output Composite Index are screaming that a U.S. recession is around the corner. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Recessions Historically, a steepening U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve has preceded recessions. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales fell in December to 441K (annualized). Historically, before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline. Click the Image to Enlarge
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, increased to 63.3% in January. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Probability of a U.S. Recession The 12-month ahead U.S. recession probability continues to increase. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. LEI vs. U.S. GDP and Recessions Should investors bet on a hard or soft landing for the U.S. economy? Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In December, U.S. building permits declined to 1,330 million (annualized). Historically, before recessions, building permits tend to peak and then decline.
FMS Investors – Net % Saying Recession Likely Fears of recession are slowly fading, but FMS investors are still pessimistic. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey