Keyword: recession

Survey – Fear of Recession in the United States Recession fears recede among Americans. Image: Statista

U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions U.S. building permits sales at 1.416 million (annualized). Historically, before recessions, building permits tend to peak and then decline.

Probability of U.S. Recession in the Next Four Quarters U.S. recession risk continues to drift lower, thanks to favourable financial and labor market conditions. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

When Will the U.S. Economy Go into Recession? At the Goldman Sachs annual Global Strategy Conference this week, most clients expect a recession in 2021 or 2022. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In December, U.S. real retail sales at 3.5% YoY, and the trend remains up. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

U.S. Business Cycle – Months of Growth vs. Months of Recession This chart puts into perspective the U.S. business cycle and the length of recessions. Image: BofA Global Research

What is the Probability that the U.S. Enters an Economic Recession over the Next 12 Months? The latest edition of BofA’s US credit investor survey shows that recession fears have dropped to 16.3%. Image: BofA US Credit Investor Survey

KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index is stable, and labor market conditions remain above their long-run average. Historically, a negative value is a necessary, but not sufficient requirement for recessions: it means that labor market conditions are below their long-run average.

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -0.54% YoY in December, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.

U.S. Jobless Claims and Recession Currently, U.S. jobless claims look good. This chart suggests that jobless claims tend to rise above the red line, prior to a recession.