Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -4.65% YoY in April, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of recession stands at 0.06%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales rose in March to 517K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales tend to peak and then decline. Click the Image to Enlarge

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In March, U.S. real retail sales stand at 24.44% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions

ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions Economic growth tends to peak about a year after the recession ends. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation