S&P 500 Index Declines Around Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has fallen by a median 24% from peak to trough around recessions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In April, U.S. building permits declined to 1,873 million (annualized). Historically, before recessions, building permits tend to peak and then decline.
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In April, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Recession Probability Morgan Stanley’s recession indicator signals a 27% probability of a downturn in the next 12 months. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Google Searches for “Recession” in the United States Is a recession on the horizon in the United States? Image: Deutsche Bank
Performance – S&P 500 Declines by Recessions The S&P 500 declined an average of 27.5% over the past 11 recessions. Image: BofA Global Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at 12.9% YoY in April, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001, 2007 and 2020, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
U.S. Recession Probability Based on Front-End Yield Curve Slope The probability of a recession in the United States is still low over the next 12 months. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales rose in March to 468K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline. Click the Image to Enlarge
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 2.7% in April. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland