NBER Recession Dating vs. Market Realization Historically, the S&P 500 peaks and declines 6–16 months before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares a U.S. recession, making it a reliable leading indicator. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Declines Around Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has fallen by a median 24% from peak-to-trough around economic recessions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Goldman Sachs has increased its forecast for a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 35%, up from 20%, attributing the change to rising trade tensions and weakening consumer and business confidence. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.26%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy truck sales fell in February to 436K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 27.3% in March. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
What Do You Think the Probability of There Being a U.S. Recession in the Next 12 Months Is? Deutsche Bank’s survey of 400 financial professionals worldwide indicates an average 43% expectation of a U.S. recession within 12 months, reflecting an uncertain economic outlook. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 2s10s Yield Curve and Consensus Probability of a U.S. Recessions in the Next 12 Months Although fears of a U.S. recession have been mounting, the 2s10s U.S. Treasury yield curve’s recent steepening suggests a more optimistic economic outlook. Image: Deutsche Bank
ISM Composite Index vs. Recessions While indicating slower growth, the economically weighted ISM composite index still points to expansionary conditions in the U.S. economy, without signaling an impending recession. Image: Real Investment Advice
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months stands at 20%, which is slightly higher than the long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Corrections and Recessions Deutsche Bank Research analysis shows that in 12% of S&P 500 corrections, a recession had already begun. Moreover, in 56% of cases, no recession occurred within a year before or after the correction started. Image: Deutsche Bank