Search Results for: recession

Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes Chart suggesting the probability of U.S. recession as currently priced across asset classes. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In August, U.S. real retail sales at 1.23% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

U.S. Recessionary Manufacturing Activity Chart showing that U.S. manufacturing sectors remain weak, despite four consecutive months of gains. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales rose in August to 395K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales tend to peak and then decline. You may also like “Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator.”

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -16.10% YoY in August, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of recession stands at 87.85%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 20.8% in August. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

U.S. 10-Year Yields Around the End of the Recession The coronavirus pandemic has depressed the 10-year yield, leaving it stuck, even as the stock market rebounds. Image: J.P. Morgan

FMS Investors – Early-Cycle vs. Recession FMS investors are becoming more optimistic, starting to think early-cycle rather than recession. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

U.S. Real Retail Sales during 7 Recessions since 1970 The rebound in U.S. real retail sales is a V-shaped recovery, but can it last? Image: Pictet Asset Management