ISM Composite Index vs. Recessions While indicating slower growth, the economically weighted ISM composite index still points to expansionary conditions in the U.S. economy, without signaling an impending recession. Image: Real Investment Advice
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months stands at 20%, which is slightly higher than the long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Corrections and Recessions Deutsche Bank Research analysis shows that in 12% of S&P 500 corrections, a recession had already begun. Moreover, in 56% of cases, no recession occurred within a year before or after the correction started. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In February, building permits in the U.S. rose to 1.456 million, exceeding expectations. Historically, they tend to peak and then decline before economic recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In February, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.28% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes Concerns over tariffs and potential layoffs are driving up the likelihood of a U.S. recession. Investors are reflecting this sentiment, with the S&P 500 pointing to a 33% chance of economic downturn. Analysts often use the current percentage change in the S&P 500 index to gauge…
Annual U.S. Payroll Employment Growth in the Month Before Each Post-War Recession The recent slowdown in U.S. job creation is concerning, as it nears levels typically seen before economic downturns. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Goldman Sachs has increased its U.S. recession forecast probability from 15% to 20%, which is higher than the long-term average of 15%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -5.79% YoY in February. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Global Recession Probability Model vs. MSCI ACWI NDR’s Global Recession Probability Model is at its lowest level in nearly four years, signaling a positive outlook for global equities. Image: Ned Davis Research
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 23% in February. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland