Median Non-Farm Payrolls in the 12 Months Before and After the Start of a U.S. Recession Consistently adding more than 100,000 payroll jobs each month is considered a vital cushion against recession worries. Continued growth at this pace could bolster confidence in the U.S. economy’s direction over the next few months. Image: Deutsche Bank
Proportion of S&P 500 Firms Mentioning Recession during Quarterly Earnings Calls The proportion of S&P 500 firms mentioning “recession” in their earnings calls has risen sharply to 24%, signaling growing worries about an economic slowdown despite continued positive earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -4.62% YoY in April. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 is pricing in about a 25% chance of a recession, which is lower than signals from copper prices or the yield curve, but higher than the recession probabilities implied by global equities or high-yield credit markets. Analysts often use the current percentage change…
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy truck sales rose in March to 450K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.84%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months stands at 23%, which is slightly higher than the long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Google Searches for “Global Financial Crisis” and “Great Recession” While fears of a 2025 tariff-driven recession evoke memories of 2008, some investors see today’s prevailing pessimism as a contrarian bullish signal for stocks. Historically, extreme bearish sentiment has often marked market bottoms. Image: CNBC
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads and Recessions U.S. high-yield credit spreads in May 2025 show little evidence of recession fears, remaining well below the levels seen during previous downturns. Image: Deutsche Bank
Maximum S&P 500 Drawdowns and Recessions If the U.S. economy enters a recession due to Trump’s tariffs, the stock market could decline further. The market appears not to have fully priced in the risk of a recession. Image: Yahoo Finance
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In March, building permits in the U.S. rose to 1.482 million, exceeding expectations. Historically, they tend to peak and then decline before economic recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis