U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession Today, U.S. real retail sales hit a new all-time high. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

U.S. Monetary Policy and Recession

U.S. Monetary Policy and Recession This chart shows the U.S. monetary policy and two recession forecasting models over time (Fed policy rate, Atlanta Fed shadow Fed funds rate, nominal R-Star, Fed funds curve). A Fed rate cut similar to 1995 should extend the business cycle. Picture source: Fidelity Investments

U.S. Expansions and Recessions

U.S. Expansions and Recessions Recessions are usually painful, but expansions have been powerful. The average expansion is 67 months and the average recession is 11 months, since 1950. See also “Economic Impact of U.S. Recessions.” Picture source: Oxford Economics

U.S. Recession Probabilities Over the Next Year from the Yield Curve

U.S. Recession Probabilities Over the Next Year from the Yield Curve Deutsche Bank has calculated the U.S. recession probabilities over the next year, using the slope of various yield curves. PCA (Principal Component Analysis) is used to estimate the effects of yield curve movements. Picture source: Deutsche Bank

Economic Impact of U.S. Recessions

Economic Impact of U.S. Recessions This chart shows that the economic impact of most U.S. recessions is relatively small. The average expansion increased GDP by +24% vs. S&P 500 +117%, and the average recession reduced GDP by less than 2% vs. S&P 500 +3%. The average expansion is 67 months and the average recession is…