Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -4.65% YoY in April, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of recession stands at 0.06%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…
U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales rose in March to 517K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales tend to peak and then decline. Click the Image to Enlarge
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 5.1% in April. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In March, U.S. building permits rose to 1,766 million (annualized). Historically, before recessions, building permits tend to peak and then decline.
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In March, U.S. real retail sales stand at 24.44% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions Economic growth tends to peak about a year after the recession ends. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Recessions – Fed Funds Rate vs. Rolling 12-Month Drawdown on Multi-Asset Portfolio of FICC and Equities
Recessions – Fed Funds Rate vs. Rolling 12-Month Drawdown on Multi-Asset Portfolio of FICC and Equities Could the Fed cause the next recession by raising interest rates too soon? Image: J.P. Morgan
Quarterly U.S. Real GDP Relative to Prerecession Path Is the U.S. economy on fire, as U.S. real GDP has recovered faster than normal? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Percent U.S. Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions The United States recovered just over half the jobs lost during the coronavirus pandemic. Image: Calculated Risk