Peak to Trough S&P 500 Price Decline Around Recessions Could the S&P 500 fall more than 30% from peak to trough in a hard landing scenario? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Recession – Percentage of U.S. Treasury Yield Curves Inverted More than 60% of yield curves are inverted. Recession risk in the United States rises significantly when the number of inverted yield curves exceeds 50%. Image: Charles Schwab
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In August, U.S. building permits declined to 1,517 million (annualized). Historically, before recessions, building permits tend to peak and then decline.
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In August, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.8% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
FMS Investors – Net % Saying Recession Likely A recession in the next 12 months remains consensus. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI The Economic Output Composite Index suggests that risks of recession in the United States are increasing in the near term. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Alongside Recessions and Bottoms Historically, the S&P 500 tends to bottom in a recession and usually not until mid-way through. Image: Deutsche Bank
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at 10.43% YoY in August, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001, 2007 and 2020, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, increased to 27% in August. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales fell in July to 468K (annualized). Historically, before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline. Click the Image to Enlarge