FMS Recession Expectations

FMS Recession Expectations While economic indicators are currently showing resilience, is it unlikely that the global economy will experience a recession in the next 12 months? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

Probability of U.S. Recession Over the Next 12 Months

Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year Goldman Sachs’ outlook on the U.S. economy is optimistic, indicating a favorable sentiment and a low 15% probability of a recession occurring within the next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

NBER Recession Dating vs. Market Realization

NBER Recession Dating vs. Market Realization The S&P 500 is a reliable recession predictor, often peaking and declining before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially acknowledges a recession, usually within 6 to 16 months. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In April, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.34% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stands at -6.34% YoY in April. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do not always guarantee one. However, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below…

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales fell in March to 452K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of recession stands at 0.46%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…

Gold Price vs. S&P 500 Index and Recessions

Gold Price vs. S&P 500 Index and Recessions Throughout history, gold has been considered a safe haven during market declines. Since 2015, its correlation with U.S. stocks has strengthened, making it more likely for gold to move in sync with U.S. stocks during market downturns. Image: Real Investment Advice