U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In August, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.8% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI

Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI The Economic Output Composite Index suggests that risks of recession in the United States are increasing in the near term. Image: Real Investment Advice

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at 10.43% YoY in August, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001, 2007 and 2020, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales fell in July to 468K (annualized). Historically, before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline. Click the Image to Enlarge