Search Results for: recession

Expected Duration of Global Recession This chart suggests the expected duration of the global recession based on survey data. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales declined in November to 462K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales tend to peak and then decline. You may also like “Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator.”

Cumulative Decline in U.S. Real GDP during Previous Recessions Bank of America sees a -10.4% cumulative decline in U.S. real GDP this year. Image: BofA Global Research

Peak to Trough Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS during 11 Recessions Since 1947 Goldman Sachs expects EPS to fall 33% in the United States (base case scenario). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Real GDP vs. Stock-to-Bond Ratio and Recession This chart shows the correlation between US real GDP and the stock-to-bond ratio, and suggests a recession in the United States. Image: Alpine Macro

Performance of S&P 500 in Two Years Before and After End of U.S. Recessions This chart suggests that the current episode assumes 2020 recession ends in June, as equities tend to bottom about two months before the end of the economy contraction. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Unemployment Rate Average of All Recessions This chart puts into perspective the U.S. unemployment rate during recessions and during the depression. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

Peak to Trough Equity Move Around Past Recessions Historically, the average move in the S&P 500 from peak to trough around past recessions is -32%. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In January, U.S. real retail sales at 1.85% YoY, and the trend remains up. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

Recession – U.S. Real GDP and Stock-to-Bond Ratio This chart shows the correlation between US real GDP and the stock-to-bond ratio, suggesting a recession. Image: Alpine Macro