Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 25.9% in January. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Increase in Real U.S. GDP during First Year of Recovery vs. Decrease in Real U.S. GDP during Recession The deeper the fall in U.S. GDP, the faster the rebound. Image: BCA Research
Earnings – EPS to Recover Post Recessions How long does it take for S&P 500 EPS to recover after a recession? Image: CIBC
Cyclicals/Top 1500 and U.S. Recession Morgan Stanley sees a massive upside in cyclical shares, in a sharp V-shaped economic recovery. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Recessionary Manufacturing Activity Chart showing that 2/3 of the manufacturing sector is in contraction. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In January, U.S. real retail sales at 1.85% YoY, and the trend remains up. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Share of Countries in Recession The global economy plunges into the worst recession since World War II. Image: The Wall Street Journal
Real S&P 500 Around Recession End Dates This chart suggests that the S&P 500 is currently running ahead of the historical average. Image: Stifel
Job Losses During Recessions in the U.S. The March-May job loss is two times larger than the total GFC job loss. On the positive side, U.S. job losses see revival in May. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales declined in November to 462K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales tend to peak and then decline. You may also like “Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator.”