U.S. Recession Probability – BofA Survey The September edition of the BofA survey shows that clients see a 25% chance of recession over the next 12 months. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch Credit Investor Survey
GS Asia Bear Market Risk Indicator – Recession Risk The GS Asia Bear Market Risk Indicator rose to 75% in August. Bear market risk is rising. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
M1 Money Supply vs. Yield Curve and Recessions Great chart showing the correlation between M1 money supply and the yield curve. The key factor for inverted yield curves is tight money. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Histogram of S&P 500 Declines Around Recessions Chart showing peak-to-trough percent change in the S&P 500 index around recessions (median: -21.6%). Picture source: J.P. Morgan
Contributions to Probability of U.S. Recession within One Year Chart suggesting that the probability of a recession in the United States within a year is 45%. Picture source: J.P. Morgan
Search Interest for “Recession” Google search interest for “Recession” has declined. Is the fear gone? Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index declined, but labor market conditions remain above their long-run average. A negative value is a necessary, but not sufficient requirement for recessions: it means that labor market conditions are below their long-run average.
U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales vs. Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales fell in August to 534K. Before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales peak and then decline. Currently, heavy trucks sales are still trending upwards and suggest that there is no imminent recession on the horizon. You may also like “Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator.”
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions Since 1975, in 6 of 11 instances, a recession did not occur when the ISM fell below 50 and remained above 45.5. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
