Liquidity Indicator and U.S. Recessions Liquidity remains an interesting indicator of the state of the U.S. business cycle. Image: Longview Economics
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In September, U.S. real retail sales stand at 8.13% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
U.S. 10Y-2Y Treasury Yield Curve Pre- and Post-Recessions Will the yield curve continue to steepen? Image: Truist
Percent U.S. Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions The U.S. job market is recovering quickly. Image: Calculated Risk
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at 12.07% YoY in September, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
Real Oil Price and U.S. Recessions A sharp increase in oil prices above $90 could lead to a recession in the United States. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of recession stands at 1.56%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…
U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales fell in August to 417K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales tend to peak and then decline. Click the Image to Enlarge
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 7.7% in September. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
U.S. NIPA Profit Margins and Recessions U.S. corporate profits are booming. Image: Oxford Economics