ISM Composite Index vs. Recessions

ISM Composite Index vs. Recessions While indicating slower growth, the economically weighted ISM composite index still points to expansionary conditions in the U.S. economy, without signaling an impending recession. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 Corrections and Recessions

S&P 500 Corrections and Recessions Deutsche Bank Research analysis shows that in 12% of S&P 500 corrections, a recession had already begun. Moreover, in 56% of cases, no recession occurred within a year before or after the correction started. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In February, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.28% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes

Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes Concerns over tariffs and potential layoffs are driving up the likelihood of a U.S. recession. Investors are reflecting this sentiment, with the S&P 500 pointing to a 33% chance of economic downturn. Analysts often use the current percentage change in the S&P 500 index to gauge…

Estimated U.S. Recession Probability

Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Goldman Sachs has increased its U.S. recession forecast probability from 15% to 20%, which is higher than the long-term average of 15%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -5.79% YoY in February. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…

Global Recession Probability Model vs. MSCI ACWI

Global Recession Probability Model vs. MSCI ACWI NDR’s Global Recession Probability Model is at its lowest level in nearly four years, signaling a positive outlook for global equities. Image: Ned Davis Research