U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Recessions While a steepening inverted yield curve has historically served as a warning sign for U.S. recessions, the current economic context of expected Fed rate cuts and strong economic indicators suggests this time may be different Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -5.24% YoY in August. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Median Non-Farm Payrolls in the 12 Months Before and After the Start of a U.S. Recession Maintaining payroll growth above +100,000 jobs per month is viewed as a crucial buffer against recession fears. If this trend continues, it may provide some reassurance about the U.S. economy’s trajectory in the coming months. Image: Deutsche Bank
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate While the Sahm Rule has historically been a reliable predictor of U.S. recessions, the current labor market dynamics differ from past recessions and may challenge its applicability in the present context. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year As of now, the market-implied probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months is 38%, a level that remains significantly elevated by historical standards. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales rose in July to 523K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 63.1% in August. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Recession – U.S. Real Retail Sales Over the past two years, real retail sales in the U.S. have remained weak, indicating a persistent sluggishness in consumer spending. Image: Real Investment Advice
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Goldman Sachs has reduced its forecast for a U.S. recession in the next year from 25% to 20%, reflecting a more optimistic outlook based on favorable recent macroeconomic data. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In July, U.S. building permits declined to 1,396 million below expectations. Before recessions, building permits tend to peak and then decline. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis