U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales fell in June to 452K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Recessions A steepening inverted U.S. 10-year to 2-year yield curve has historically been an early warning sign of an upcoming recession in the United States. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In June, U.S. building permits rose to 1,446 million above expectations. Before recessions, building permits tend to peak and then decline Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
FMS Recession Expectations With economic indicators currently showing some resilience, is it unlikely that the global economy will experience a recession in the next 12 months? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In June, real retail sales stand at -0.68% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months is 37%, which is quite high by historical standards. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -7.74% YoY in June. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 57.8% in July. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Recession – U.S. Real Retail Sales U.S. real retail sales have declined in 2024, suggesting ongoing weakness in consumer spending. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of recession stands at 0.28%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…