Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession

Market-based indicators suggest a relatively optimistic outlook on the U.S. economy, with a 39% probability of a recession within the next twelve months priced in.

Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession