Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession

At 12%, market-implied odds of a U.S. recession over the next year sit below their long-run average, leaving the risk backdrop relatively constructive.

Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession