Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession

Markets are pricing roughly 16% odds of a U.S. recession over the next year—slightly above average, but far from panic territory.

Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession