Yield Curve – U.S. 10-Year – 2-Year Government Bond Spread Is the U.S. economy heading for a recession? Historically, a prolonged yield curve inversion has been a good indicator of recession. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield vs. Fed Funds Historically, U.S. 2-year Treasury yields tend to lead Fed funds by 20 weeks. Image: Richardson Wealth
Fed Funds vs. 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) 2-year U.S. Treasury yields tend to lead Fed funds by 20 weeks. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Rates – 2-Year and 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecasts Has the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield peaked? Image: BofA Global Research
Inflation – 2-Year Change in Labor Participation Rate and 2-Year Change in CPI Growth Labor shortages contribute to inflation. Image: Alpine Macro
Rolling 2-Year S&P 500 Price Return What returns will the S&P 500 deliver over the next 2 years? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Rates – 6-Month Change in U.S. 2-Year Yield This is the largest 6-month change in U.S. 2-year rates since mid-1994. Image: BofA Global Research
Valuation – S&P 500 12-Month Forward P/E Ratio and 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Historically, rising rates tend to compress S&P 500 valuation multiples. Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) vs. U.S. Minus G10 (Ex. U.S.) 2-Year Yield Rising U.S. interest rates tend to make the U.S. dollar stronger. Image: Alpine Macro
Yield Curve – 2-Year/10-Year U.S. Treasury Slope Will the U.S. Treasury yield curve continue to flatten? Image: BCA Research