Small Caps: Russell 2000 Last 12 Month Performance Grouped by Stocks > 10-Years Old and < 2-Years Old Chart suggesting more alpha among “newer” Russell 2000 small cap stocks over the last 12 months. Image: Strategas
U.S./German 2-Year Yield Spread vs. U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate This chart shows the Euro vs. US Dollar (EUR/USD) and how a wider U.S./German 2-year yield spread corresponds to a stronger US dollar. R² = 0.62 since 2005.
U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Spread vs. Fed Funds Target Rate Interesting chart showing the U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve steepness versus. the Fed funds target rate (inverted). Image: Credit Suisse
Small Bank Lending and 2-Year/Fed Funds Spread This chart shows the correlation between small bank lending and falling rates, and the negative effect of an inverted yield curve on small bank lending. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Curve and Recession After the first Fed rate cut, a steepening of the U.S. 2-Year/10-Year spread could suggest a recession is coming. Image: UBS
Conference Board U.S. LEI and U.S. Treasury 10-Year/2-Year Spread Is a rate cut justified in July? Just take a look at the Conference Board Leading Economic Index and the U.S. Treasury 10-Year/2-Year spread. Image: Strategas
10-Year/2-Year Treasury Yield Curve Around First Fed Rate Cuts The chart shows that the 10-Year/2-Year Treasury yield curve usually steepens around the first Fed rate cut. Image: Ned Davis Research
Divergence Between the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield and the U.S. Dollar Trump wants a weaker US dollar, but could the dollar weaken in the coming months? Image: Legg Mason
Value vs. Growth Stocks Since 1927, U.S. growth stocks have outperformed value stocks by 30% over a 2-year period, on five occasions. Each time, it was before a recession or a war. Is it different this time? Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
U.S. 10-Year Yield Leads Global PMI This interesting chart suggests that the U.S. 10-year yield (2-year change) leads global PMI by 18 months. Source: Macrobond and Brandywine Global