Small Bank Lending and 2-Year/Fed Funds Spread

Small Bank Lending and 2-Year/Fed Funds Spread This chart shows the correlation between small bank lending and falling rates, and the negative effect of an inverted yield curve on small bank lending. Picture source: TS Lombard

U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Curve and Recession

U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Curve and Recession After the first Fed rate cut, a steepening of the U.S. 2-Year/10-Year spread could suggest a recession is coming. Picture source: UBS

Value vs. Growth Stocks

Value vs. Growth Stocks Since 1927, U.S. growth stocks have outperformed value stocks by 30% over a 2-year period, on five occasions. Each time, it was before a recession or a war. Is it different this time? Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch

U.S. 10-Year Yield Leads Global PMI

U.S. 10-Year Yield Leads Global PMI This interesting chart suggests that the U.S. 10-year yield (2-year change) leads global PMI by 18 months. Source: Macrobond and Brandywine Global

S&P 500 Maximum Intra-Year Drawdown

S&P 500 Maximum Intra-Year Drawdown Since 1950, the average maximum drawdown for the S&P 500 is -13.5% and the median is -10.6%. You may also like “S&P 500 Index Drawdowns From 2 Year Highs.” Picture source: LPL Financial LLC