Demographics Explain Sovereign 30-Year Yields Accross Emerging Markets

Demographics Explain Sovereign 30-Year Yields Accross Emerging Markets Another great chart showing that emerging market demographics explain 30-year sovereign bond yields. An R² of 0.80 is quite high and significant. You may also like “U.S. Population Growth vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield.” Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

S&P 500 Dividend Yield and 30-Year Treasury Bond

S&P 500 Dividend Yield and 30-Year Treasury Bond Are U.S. equities a “buy”? The dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index is now higher than the yield from a 30-year Treasury bond. This is a rare phenomenon. But the equity risk does not disappear because a company pays a dividend. Image: Bloomberg

30-Year Mortgage Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield

30-Year Mortgage Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield There is a very high correlation between the 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury yield 30-year mortgage rates = 1.739 x (10-year treasury yield)² + 0.7755 x (10-year treasury yield) + 0.0227 R² = 0.9787 Image: Calculated Risk

U.S. 30-Year Bond Total Return by Year

U.S. 30-Year Bond Total Return by Year U.S. long-bond yield hits all-time low, with the world in crisis mode. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index

200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This great chart suggests that 200-Day Change in Yield Curve 30-Year minus 10-Year spread leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index by 16 months. It also suggests that U.S. PMI is probably bottoming now and could bounce back. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC