S&P 500 Return vs. NonFarm Payrolls

S&P 500 Return vs. NonFarm Payrolls Since 1988, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 has been much better when nonfarm payrolls have exceeded 100,000. Image: Pictet Wealth Management

U.S. Consumer Spending and Nonfarm Payroll Growth

U.S. Consumer Spending and Nonfarm Payroll Growth U.S. consumers may spend less going forward. Slower job growth usually leads to a slowdown in consumer spending. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment

U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment During this business cycle, America has added over 20 million jobs. Image: Leonard Kiefer

Overtime Hours Lead U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls

Overtime Hours Lead U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Great chart suggesting that overtime hours lead U.S. nonfarm payrolls by 3 months (R = 0.90). Image: Paolo Cardena

Manufacturing Payrolls vs. PMI

Manufacturing Payrolls vs. ISM PMI Manufacturing payrolls are usually quite volatile, but this interesting chart could suggest a rebound in the ISM PMI. Let’s wait for confirmation in the second half of the year. Image: Hayek and Keynes

U.S. Total Nonfarm Payrolls and Recessions

U.S. Total Nonfarm Payrolls and Recessions Total nonfarm payrolls increased 224K in June, well above expectations, which should calm fears of a near-term recession.  The job market is still strong, even if there are signs it is slowing down. Actually, nonfarm payroll growth tends to decline before a recession. You may also like “What Is…

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities Currently, the probability of recession is 2.76%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history tells us that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…

U.S. Employment Outlook

U.S. Employment Outlook The outlook of U.S. employment continues to improve. In Q4 2019, 22% of U.S. employers plan to add to payrolls, 5% expect a decrease and 72% expect no change. Image: ManpowerGroup