Manufacturing Payrolls vs. PMI

Manufacturing Payrolls vs. ISM PMI Manufacturing payrolls are usually quite volatile, but this interesting chart could suggest a rebound in the ISM PMI. Let’s wait for confirmation in the second half of the year. Picture source: Hayek and Keynes

U.S. Total Nonfarm Payrolls and Recessions

U.S. Total Nonfarm Payrolls and Recessions Total nonfarm payrolls increased 224K in June, well above expectations, which should calm fears of a near-term recession.  The job market is still strong, even if there are signs it’s slowing. Actually, nonfarm payroll growth tends to decline before a recession.

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities Currently, the probability of recession is 0.98%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history shows that the probability of recession is increasing. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly…

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming The probability of being unemployed in a given month in the United States, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, is one of the best indicators to monitor for signs a U.S.…