Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of recession stands at 0.46%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…

U.S. Employment Outlook

U.S. Employment Outlook The outlook of U.S. employment continues to improve. In Q4 2019, 22% of U.S. employers plan to add to payrolls, 5% expect a decrease and 72% expect no change. Image: ManpowerGroup

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming The probability of being unemployed in a given month in the United States, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, is one of the best indicators to monitor for signs a U.S.…