Drawdowns – Average and Median Percent Change to the Current Month’s Low from the Prior Month’s High in Presidential Cycle Year 1 Drawdowns happen all the time. But historically, October has the most severe S&P 500 drawdowns in Presidential cycle year 1. Image: BofA Global Research
Monthly S&P 500 Seasonality for Presidential Cycle Year 1 S&P 500 seasonality shows that October has been challenging in Presidential cycle year 1. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 6-Month Seasonal Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 1 into Presidential Cycle Year 2 From Presidential cycle year 1 into Presidential cycle year 2, the S&P 500 has historically done poorly from September through February. Image: BofA Global Research
Returns – S&P 500 Four Year Presidential Cycle Is there a risk of a market correction? The S&P 500 is entering what has historically been a period of weakness. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 3-Month Seasonality Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 1 S&P 500 seasonality is more bearish in Presidential cycle year 1, from late summer into the fall. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Historically, during a post-election year, S&P 500 returns tend to be positive in Q2. Image: LPL Financial LLC
Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) After U.S. Presidential Inaugurations In recent history, the EUR/USD tends to drop on average after U.S. Presidential inaugurations. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. Dollar and Presidential Inaugurations After U.S. presidential inaugurations, the U.S. dollar tends to rise on average. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
% Move in EUR/USD After U.S. Presidential Inaugurations EUR/USD has tended to decline in the weeks following U.S. presidential inaugurations since 1974. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Health Care Stocks – Health Care Sector Excess Returns vs. S&P 500 Around U.S. Presidential Elections The health care sector tends to outperform after Election Day. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research