U.S. Election – Nasdaq vs. Probability of Democratic Presidential Win in 2020 Has the market already priced in a democratic victory in November? Image: Variant Perception Research
S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4 Historically, election year shines in June-August, as it is the strongest 3-month period of presidential cycle year 4 (up 74% of the time with an average return of 6.93%). Image: BofA Global Research
Odds of Winning U.S. Presidential Election Here’s a look at the current betting odds for Donald Trump, Michael Bloomberg and Bernie Sanders. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Calendar Year Performance During U.S. Presidential Election Years Presidential election years have historically been good for U.S. equities, when an incumbent president winds up winning reelection. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute
Sector Performance in the 9 Months Prior to Past U.S. Presidential Elections This chart shows the sector median excess return vs. the S&P 500 during 9 months before 11 presidential elections since 1976. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The U.S. Presidential Cycle How U.S. presidential elections affect stock market returns? This chart shows the forward return for the U.S. stock market based on election outcomes. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Presidential Elections and the Stock Market The first two years of presidential terms tend to produce below-average returns, while the next 2 years tend to produce above-average returns. Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Historically, during a presidential election year, each quarter has seen a positive return on average. Image: LPL Financial LLC
U.S. Presidential Cycle During secular bull markets, the first term Presidential cycle suggests the S&P 500 Index at 3,740 into year-end. Image: BofA Global Research
Incumbent Presidential Election Years Since 22nd Amendment Incumbent presidential election years have traditionally been good for equities, with an average return of 11.4% since 22nd amendment. Image: Morgan Stanley Research