S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Weakness in Q1 during the first year of a presidential term is perfectly normal for U.S. stocks. Historically, markets tend to strengthen as the year advances, often ending with robust performance. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Returns Based on 4-Year Presidential Cycle Bulls have reason to be cheerful as post-election years tend to bring solid market gains. Since 1985, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of over 18% during these years, with positive results in nine out of ten cases. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Around Close Presidential Elections The cyclical nature of equity markets around U.S. elections often leads to rallies after the election as policy uncertainties fade. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle The U.S. stock market typically outperforms in the first two years of a President’s second term compared to a new President’s term, suggesting a potentially strong year for stocks and giving bulls reason to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Around Close Presidential Elections While U.S. elections are significant in shaping economic policy and affecting investor sentiment, they do not consistently drive changes in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Stock Returns Over the Past Presidential Terms Starting on Election Day During President Biden’s tenure, U.S. stocks have surged by 76% starting on election day, reinforcing historical data suggesting that Democratic administrations often correlate with stronger market performance compared to their Republican counterparts. Image: Carson Investment Research
Consecutive Presidential Elections Where the Incumbent Party in the White House Is Defeated For the first time since the late 1800s, the incumbent party has lost three consecutive presidential elections. Politicians are unable to deliver against expectations in a world of lower growth and fairly regular shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank
30-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Around Presidential Election Dates Historically, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have tended to rise after Republican victories and fall after Democratic victories, reflecting market perceptions of each party’s economic policies. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Presidential Election Recent prediction market data indicates that the gap between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential race is narrowing. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Around Predictable U.S. Presidential Elections While U.S. elections can create anxiety and volatility due to policy uncertainties, predictable elections often coincide with continued market trends and reduced market volatility. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Around Close Presidential U.S. Elections Election Day frequently serves as a catalyst for the S&P 500, with the index typically surging as political uncertainties give way to clarity. Image: Deutsche Bank