Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Historically, the S&P 500 average intra-year pullback from peak to trough has been more than 17% in midterm years. Image: LPL Research
U.S. Equities – Seasonality and Presidential Cycle Year 1 Will February 2022 be a challenging month for U.S. equities? Image: True Insights
S&P 500 Corrections and 1-Year Performance Following Correction by Presidential Cycle Is the S&P 500 headed for a big correction in 2022? Image: Strategas Research Partners
S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle 2022 could be challenging for the S&P 500 in Presidential cycle year two. Image: LPL Research
Returns – The 4-Year Presidential Cycle 2022 could be challenging for the S&P 500 in Presidential cycle year 2. Image: BofA Global Research
Coronavirus – U.S. State COVID-19 Full Vaccination Rates vs. 2020 Presidential Election Popular Vote Share Vaccination rates in the United States are highly correlated with politics. Image: BCA Research
Monthly S&P 500 Seasonality for Presidential Cycle Year 1 S&P 500 seasonality shows that December is historically a positive month in Presidential cycle year 1. Image: BofA Global Research
Drawdowns – Average and Median Percent Change to the Current Month’s Low from the Prior Month’s High in Presidential Cycle Year 1 Drawdowns happen all the time. But historically, October has the most severe S&P 500 drawdowns in Presidential cycle year 1. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 6-Month Seasonal Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 1 into Presidential Cycle Year 2 From Presidential cycle year 1 into Presidential cycle year 2, the S&P 500 has historically done poorly from September through February. Image: BofA Global Research
Returns – S&P 500 Four Year Presidential Cycle Is there a risk of a market correction? The S&P 500 is entering what has historically been a period of weakness. Image: BofA Global Research