Valuation and Returns around U.S. Presidential Elections Historically, the S&P 500 has performed well in the 12 months prior to an U.S. election. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Stocks, Bonds and Commodities Performance During U.S. Presidential Election Years Historically, since 1900, stocks and bonds have struggled in the first half of U.S. presidential election years. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
U.S. Stock Market Performance During U.S. Presidential Election Years Chart showing the average performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during U.S. presidential election years, since 1900. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
S&P 500 Returns During Presidential Election Years Historically, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 12% in the year before a presidential election. Image: J.P. Morgan
Volatility Across U.S. Presidential Elections Chart showing that outside of recessions, U.S. presidential elections did not contribute much to the volatility of equities, rates and forex. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Growth Over U.S. Presidential Terms Since 1960, the U.S. economy has grown faster in the fourth year of the president’s term. Image: ANZ Research
S&P 500 Average Performance – Presidential Election Years and Incumbent Party Outcome The S&P 500 performance 90 days before the U.S. Presidential election is very accurate in predicting the election winner. If the S&P 500 is up in the 90 days leading to election day, the incumbent party usually wins. This is true for 90%…
S&P 500 Quarterly Performance by Presidential Cycle Chart showing the breakdown of the S&P 500 quarterly performance by presidential cycle since 1950. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
S&P 500 After Official Presidential Impeachment Inquiry Chart showing that two presidential impeachment inquiries had two different results. Image: Sentimentrader
U.S. Recession and Presidential Re-election If there isn’t a recession ahead of the U.S. presidential re-election, presidents have won every time since the First World War. The spreadsheet also shows that five of the seven times there was a recession, the current U.S. President lost the re-election. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential…