Search Results for: presidential

Growth Over U.S. Presidential Terms Since 1960, the U.S. economy has grown faster in the fourth year of the president’s term. Picture source: ANZ Research

S&P 500 Average Performance – Presidential Election Years and Incumbent Party Outcome The S&P 500 performance 90 days before the U.S. Presidential election is very accurate in predicting the election winner. If the S&P 500 is up in the 90 days leading to election day, the incumbent party usually wins. This is true for 90%…

S&P 500 Quarterly Performance by Presidential Cycle Chart showing the breakdown of the S&P 500 quarterly performance by presidential cycle since 1950. Picture source: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC

S&P 500 After Official Presidential Impeachment Inquiry Chart showing that two presidential impeachment inquiries had two different results. Picture source: Sentimentrader

U.S. Recession and Presidential Re-election If there isn’t a recession ahead of the U.S. presidential re-election, presidents have won every time since the First World War. The spreadsheet also shows that five of the seven times there was a recession, the current U.S. President lost the re-election. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential…

Presidential Election – U.S. Presidential Score Sheet for the Final Year of the First Term A U.S. president is re-elected when at least consumer confidence and the unemployment rate improve. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch

U.S. Yield Curve 18 Months Before Presidential Elections 18 months before presidential elections, a flatter yield curve suggests a greater tendency to predict a change away from the incumbent President’s party Picture source: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Index and Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Presidential Elections Since 1956, history tells us that the S&P 500 is more important than the Fed, within 12 months preceding the U.S. presidential election. Picture source: Renaissance Macro

S&P 500 Index Performance 3-Months Before A Presidential Election The S&P 500 performance 3-months before the U.S. Presidential election is very accurate in predicting the election winner. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential Elections.” Picture source: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC

Unemployment and U.S. Presidential Elections Americans tend to elect Democrats when unemployment is high, and Republicans when unemployment is low. Picture source: Ken Fisher