PHLX Semiconductor Index Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns Every year, the PHLX Semiconductor Index makes investors sit through an average 30% drawdown. But it has closed higher in 20 of the last 31 years. Welcome to the cost of long-term alpha in semis. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Aggregate Earnings Surprise – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Philly Semiconductors, Bloomberg AI Value Chain The S&P 500 just posted its strongest earnings season in years, powered by AI-driven profits. When the index beats estimates by this much, investors are more comfortable paying rich valuations. Image: Bloomberg
Semiconductor Earnings vs. Hyperscaler Free Cash Flows Semiconductor earnings are riding the AI capex wave, but hyperscaler free cash flow is taking a hit as spending on chips, data centers, and networking accelerates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Semiconductors as a Share of the S&P 500 The market’s weak spot is concentration. Semiconductors have climbed to 18.8% of the S&P 500, a record and more than twice their dot-com era peak. One miss can pull everything down. Image: Real Investment Advice
Daily Percentage Change in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 10.26% last Friday, its sharpest decline since March 2020. The long-term story remains intact, but expectations had clearly overheated. Image: Deutsche Bank
Semiconductors vs. Consensus Fwd 12m EPS Semiconductor stocks have rallied faster than analysts have raised near-term earnings estimates, leaving valuations stretched relative to short-term fundamentals. The easy upside appears largely exhausted. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Semiconductors Semiconductors are discounting a substantial rise in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which suggests a robust expansion in manufacturing activity and overall economic growth. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Stocks – Global Semiconductor and Semiconductor Equipment Should investors expect global semiconductor stocks continue to fall? Image: BCA Research
Global Semiconductor Stocks Will global semiconductor stocks keep falling? Image: BCA Research
SOX Semiconductor Index vs. ISM New Orders The SOX Semiconductor Index tends to track the ISM New Orders Index closely. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Markets Suffering From Semiconductor Shortage How long will the semiconductor shortage last? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management