Reserve Bank Credit, Treasury Securities and MBS

Reserve Bank Credit, Treasury Securities and MBS This chart shows how Reserve Bank credit has increased, as the Fed has continued to add treasury securities to its balance sheet. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute

Treasury Holdings: Who Are the Major Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities?

Treasury Holdings: Who Are the Major Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities? Currently, the two major foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities are Japan and China. Japan surpasses China as largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. Image: Department of the Treasury/Federal Reserve Board Click the Image to Enlarge

Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities by Selected Countries

Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities by Selected Countries Japan and China are the two major foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities. Currently, Japan surpasses China as largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

When Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Outperform?​

When Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Outperform? The chart shows that Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) usually outperform regular Treasuries when the 10-year breakeven inflation rate is below 2%. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is a market-based measure of expected inflation over the next 10 years. Image: Movement Capital LLC

U.S. Real GDP Forecast for 2019 and 2020​

U.S. Real GDP Forecast for 2019 and 2020 Wells Fargo does not yet see a recession in the U.S. and forecasts U.S. real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020 (as of October 2019). Image: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet

Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet This chart shows the Federal Reserve total assets. According to the NY Fed, the Fed’s balance sheet could be between $3.8 trillion and $4.7 trillion by 2025. Image: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Total U.S. Treasury Holdings by Foreigners

Total U.S. Treasury Holdings by Foreigners Japan and China are the two major foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities. And currently, Japan surpasses China. Image: Bianco Research

New York Fed Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months since 1990

New York Fed Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months since 1990 When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlookis poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will continue to decline. Since 1962, no recession has occurred without an inverted…

Yield Curve Inversion, How Long Until The Recession?

Yield Curve Inversion, How Long Until The Recession? In recent history, once the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury yield spread is negative and hits 10 consecutive days, it persists for weeks/months. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered…

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming?

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…