Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities by Selected Countries

Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities by Selected Countries Japan and China are the two major foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities. Currently, Japan surpasses China as largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

When Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Outperform?​

When Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Outperform? The chart shows that Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) usually outperform regular Treasuries when the 10-year breakeven inflation rate is below 2%. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is a market-based measure of expected inflation over the next 10 years. Picture source: Movement Capital LLC

Total U.S. Treasury Holdings by Foreigners

Total U.S. Treasury Holdings by Foreigners Japan and China are the two major foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities. And currently, Japan surpasses China. Picture source: Bianco Research

New York Fed Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months since 1990

New York Fed Probability of Recession in Next 12 Months since 1990 When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlookis poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will continue to decline. Since 1962, no recession has occurred without an inverted…

Yield Curve Inversion, How Long Until The Recession?

Yield Curve Inversion, How Long Until The Recession? In recent history, once the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury yield spread is negative and hits 10 consecutive days, it persists for weeks/months. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered…

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming?

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…

One of the Best Yield Curves to Predict a Recession is Coming

One of the Best Yield Curves to Predict a Recession is Coming The spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields is one of the best recession signal of all the yield spreads. In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the yield curve inverts. When an inverted yield curve…

Why We Should Not Be Afraid By China’s Debt?

Why We Should Not Be Afraid By China’s Debt? In China, there is a high level of savings and controls on capital outflows. Currently, most of the Chinese savings are lent or invested in China. So, China’s debt reflects the Chinese savings rate. It would be much more worrying if China’s debt led to external debt,…