Valuation – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates

Valuation – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates While a 14% consensus EPS growth forecast for the S&P 500 next year is plausible, some analysts view it as optimistic, awaiting confirmation from upcoming corporate earnings reports and macroeconomic developments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Evolution of Earnings Consensus

Evolution of Earnings Consensus After an initial wave of downward revisions, Q2 2025 consensus earnings estimates have stabilized and remained relatively flat over the past six weeks, with no significant cuts reported recently. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Change in S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Consensus

Change in S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Consensus Despite being larger than average, the recent -4% consensus EPS cut is not unprecedented and mirrors past adjustments during periods of heightened uncertainty such as tariff announcements or broader economic concerns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Consensus EPS Growth

S&P 500 Consensus EPS Growth AI remains the dominant force behind S&P 500 earnings growth, with EPS projected to increase over the next three years, driven primarily by the Magnificent 7 and the broader technology sector. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

Consensus EPS Growth Estimates

Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Consensus forecasts suggest a resilient corporate sector, with S&P 500 EPS expected to grow by 7% in 2025 and accelerate to 14% in 2026, reflecting optimism despite economic uncertainties. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate

Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate While economic and policy uncertainties have led to downward revisions in 2025 EPS estimates, this trend mirrors historical patterns and may contribute to a more optimistic market outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Bottom-Up Consensus S&P 500 EPS Estimates

Bottom-Up Consensus S&P 500 EPS Estimates Bottom-up consensus estimates show S&P 500 EPS growth slowing to 4% year-over-year in Q2 2025, highlighting a cautious earnings environment amid ongoing revisions and sector challenges. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Cumulative Change in Consensus Earnings Estimates

Cumulative Change in Consensus Earnings Estimates Despite a projected slowdown in earnings growth for the Magnificent 7 in 2025, analysts remain broadly optimistic about their continued market leadership. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Consensus EPS Growth Estimate

Consensus EPS Growth Estimate Following the initial Magnificent Seven earnings report on April 22, analysts revised full-year earnings estimates upward by 1.8% for the Magnificent Seven, but downward by 0.8% for the other 493 companies in the S&P 500. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Earnings – S&P 500 Consensus EPS Revision

Earnings – S&P 500 Consensus EPS Revision The 2025 EPS revision trend follows historical patterns. With high initial estimates and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, investors should stay alert for possible further downward adjustments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research