Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Robust earnings, a more optimistic geopolitical climate, and positive technical indicators have led to a significant upward revision in equity market growth expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Despite economic uncertainties, consensus estimates project a robust 7% increase in S&P 500 earnings per share for 2025 and a 14% rise in 2026, highlighting the resilience of the corporate sector. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative Change in Consensus Earnings Estimates Despite a projected slowdown in earnings growth for the Magnificent 7 in 2025, analysts remain broadly optimistic about their continued market leadership. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus EPS Growth Estimate Following the initial Magnificent Seven earnings report on April 22, analysts revised full-year earnings estimates upward by 1.8% for the Magnificent Seven, but downward by 0.8% for the other 493 companies in the S&P 500. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Earnings – S&P 500 Consensus EPS Revision The 2025 EPS revision trend follows historical patterns. With high initial estimates and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, investors should stay alert for possible further downward adjustments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations S&P 500 Q1 2025 earnings growth has substantially outpaced initial expectations, driven by robust results from key sectors and widespread positive surprises. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus Earnings Estimates Despite economic uncertainties and potential tariff impacts, downward revisions to 2025 EPS estimates have remained modest, underscoring their resilience. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Valuation – Consensus Forward P/E vs. Expected EPS Growth The P/E premium reflects higher expected EPS growth, supported by a strong current correlation between EPS growth forecasts and P/E multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus Estimated Margin Growth Slower economic growth and rising costs are expected to lead to a decline in S&P 500 margin estimates later this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 2s10s Yield Curve and Consensus Probability of a U.S. Recessions in the Next 12 Months Although fears of a U.S. recession have been mounting, the 2s10s U.S. Treasury yield curve’s recent steepening suggests a more optimistic economic outlook. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. GDP Consensus Forecast The U.S. exceptionalism narrative appears fragile. With expectations already high, there’s little room for positive surprises, and weaker economic data could hurt the dollar due to investors’ skewed positioning. Image: TS Lombard