Earnings – S&P 500 Consensus EPS Revision 2024 EPS estimates point to a typical non-recessionary trend, suggesting a positive market outlook and the potential for strong corporate profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Magnificent 7 vs. the Other 493 Consensus Quarterly EPS The Magnificent Seven mega-cap tech stocks have dominated S&P 500’s earnings growth so far, but the remaining 493 stocks are expected to see their earnings growth accelerate in the second half of 2024. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Historical FY2 EPS Revisions vs. Consensus EPS Consensus EPS estimates for 2024 continue to track a typical non-recessionary year revision trend, suggesting a positive market outlook and the possibility of strong corporate profits. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Consensus Earnings Expectations According to FactSet, the S&P 500 is expected to report earnings growth of 8.8% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024, which would be the highest such growth rate since the first quarter of 2022. Image: Yahoo Finance
Sell Side Consensus Indicator The Sell Side Indicator, which tracks Wall Street strategists’ equity allocation recommendations, was unchanged in June. The current level suggests that the S&P 500 may see positive gains over the next 12 months. Image: BofA US Equity and Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations The latest consensus estimate points to a 9% surge in S&P 500 EPS for the second quarter, marking the strongest growth since 2021. Will S&P 500 companies continue to beat analyst expectations? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bottom-Up Consensus S&P 500 EPS Estimates Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to see stronger earnings growth in the second half of 2024, driven by resilient economic conditions and sales growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Forward EPS YoY % Change vs. S&P 500 Price Index An increase in forward earnings is typically seen as a positive indicator for higher equity prices and can help mitigate the risk of a more significant market correction. Image: Real Investment Advice
Stocks – Indexed Consensus NTM Net Income The widening gap in expected net income between mega-cap tech stocks and the bottom 493 stocks of the S&P 500 highlights the concentration risk and volatility associated with the dominance of these tech stocks in the index. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Difference Between Initial Release and Consensus Expectations of U.S. GDP U.S. GDP was one of the biggest upside surprise compared to consensus expectations, highlighting the challenges of accurately forecasting economic trends and outcomes. Image: BofA Global Research