Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Consensus forecasts suggest a resilient corporate sector, with S&P 500 EPS expected to grow by 7% in 2025 and accelerate to 14% in 2026, reflecting optimism despite economic uncertainties. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate While economic and policy uncertainties have led to downward revisions in 2025 EPS estimates, this trend mirrors historical patterns and may contribute to a more optimistic market outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bottom-Up Consensus S&P 500 EPS Estimates Bottom-up consensus estimates show S&P 500 EPS growth slowing to 4% year-over-year in Q2 2025, highlighting a cautious earnings environment amid ongoing revisions and sector challenges. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The combination of strong earnings growth, a more favorable geopolitical environment, and supportive technical indicators has led to a significant upward revision in equity market growth expectations for 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative Change in Consensus Earnings Estimates Despite a projected slowdown in earnings growth for the Magnificent 7 in 2025, analysts remain broadly optimistic about their continued market leadership. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus EPS Growth Estimate Following the initial Magnificent Seven earnings report on April 22, analysts revised full-year earnings estimates upward by 1.8% for the Magnificent Seven, but downward by 0.8% for the other 493 companies in the S&P 500. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Earnings – S&P 500 Consensus EPS Revision The 2025 EPS revision trend follows historical patterns. With high initial estimates and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, investors should stay alert for possible further downward adjustments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations S&P 500 Q1 2025 earnings growth has substantially outpaced initial expectations, driven by robust results from key sectors and widespread positive surprises. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus Earnings Estimates Despite economic uncertainties and potential tariff impacts, downward revisions to 2025 EPS estimates have remained modest, underscoring their resilience. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Valuation – Consensus Forward P/E vs. Expected EPS Growth The P/E premium reflects higher expected EPS growth, supported by a strong current correlation between EPS growth forecasts and P/E multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus Estimated Margin Growth Slower economic growth and rising costs are expected to lead to a decline in S&P 500 margin estimates later this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research