Sell Side Consensus Indicator When the Sell Side Indicator has been this low or lower, median 12-month returns have been +20%, and total returns over the subsequent 12 months have been positive 94% of the time. This indicator suggests a target for the S&P 500 of 3,258 over the next 12 months. Image: BofA US…
S&P 500 Valuation – Consensus FY2 PB and Return on Equity (ROE) This chart suggests that the current valuation of the S&P 500 appears broadly consistent with the correlation between consensus FY2 P/B and return on equity (R² = 0.42). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
2020 Consensus Earnings Expectations over the Past 12 Months While earnings expectations across the world have been revised downward, the S&P 500 is rising as nations ease lockdowns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. GDP Consensus Forecast The latest US GDP consensus forecast for 2020:Q2 stands at -27.5% (annualized). Image: The Daily Shot – The Wall Street Journal
Valuation – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates of 2020 EPS Growth This chart suggests that equity market valuations are too high, as current stock prices do not reflect the scale of earnings declines in a recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
EPS Growth and Consensus The U.S. stock market is recovering, but Goldman Sachs expects EPS to fall 33% in the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
% of S&P 500 Companies Guiding Next-Quarter EPS above Consensus “33% of S&P 500 companies have provided 1Q 2020 guidance above consensus.” Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bottom-Up Consensus Forecast of S&P 500 YoY Sales Growth Chart showing the bottom-up consensus forecast of S&P 500 year-over-year sales growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 – Consensus Year-End Target The top analysts on Wall Street predict a consensus year-end target for the S&P 500 of 3,345. Image: CNBC
Global GDP Growth Outlook vs. Consensus SocGen remains below the consensus forecasts and expects a mild recession around mid-2020 in the U.S. and a projected U.S. GDP of 0.7%. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research