S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Consensus expects S&P 500 earnings to rise 7% yoy in 4Q 2025, but Goldman Sachs sees room for more, pointing to robust sales trends and likely surprises from the Magnificent Seven. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Change in Consensus EPS The market is still a Big Tech story. Earnings estimates for 2026 keep climbing for the tech giants, while the rest of the S&P 493 struggles to keep up. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Wall Street is entering 2026 on a wave of optimism, as analysts see S&P 500 earnings climbing 15%. But small caps might steal the spotlight, with profits expected to soar 67%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The relative performance of cyclical stocks versus defensives currently signals market expectations for real U.S. GDP growth of 2%, below Goldman Sachs’ 2.6% forecast for 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
EPS – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates Goldman Sachs sees S&P 500 EPS rising 12% in 2026 and 10% in 2027, driven by a resilient U.S. economy, a weaker dollar, strong mega-cap tech earnings, and AI-related productivity gains. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Share of S&P 500 Company Quarter-Ahead EPS Guidance Above Consensus Estimates Robust earnings and upbeat company guidance are keeping corporate America in a bullish mood about near‑term profits, lending fresh support to elevated equity valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500, Russell 2000, Stoxx 600 and EM Equities – 12-Month Forward EPS Consensus Estimates Market leadership is widening. U.S. small-caps are catching up fast as EPS growth fires up in both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000—a clear sign the rally is broadening beyond the tech giants. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate While positive earnings revisions have been strong recently, this momentum is likely to slow, though it probably won’t fall below the usual historical trend of downward revisions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus Earnings Expectations Analysts are projecting S&P 500 earnings growth of 9.3% in 2025 and 14.0% in 2026. These consensus forecasts reflect a robust expected acceleration in profit growth, particularly moving from 2025 into 2026. Image: Yahoo Finance
Inflation – U.S. CPI Deviation from Consensus A series of lower-than-expected inflation readings gives the administration greater economic leeway to pursue higher tariffs, driven by the (possibly mistaken) belief that U.S. consumers will be largely insulated from their effects. Image: Deutsche Bank
Evolution of Earnings Consensus After an initial wave of downward revisions, Q2 2025 consensus earnings estimates have stabilized and remained relatively flat over the past six weeks, with no significant cuts reported recently. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation