Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Small caps could deliver the biggest earnings surge, with profits expected to jump 36% this year and 48% in 2027, compared with 32% and 12%, respectively, for the S&P 500. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are betting on steady growth, not an economic boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives implies roughly 2.4% US real GDP growth, broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ forward 4Q GDP growth forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Change in Consensus 2026 S&P 500 EPS S&P 500 EPS forecasts for 2026 surged, with upward revisions accelerating after the U.S.–Iran conflict erupted, even as geopolitical and macro risks climbed. Image: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities
S&P 500 Company Guidance vs. Consensus Growth Expectations Corporate guidance points to another upcoming quarter of robust earnings growth for the S&P 500, driven largely by continued strength in tech. But a pullback in AI spending or a macro shock could quickly pressure multiples. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Consensus Hyperscaler Capex Estimates Capex estimates keep surprising to the upside as earnings season rolls on. Hyperscaler spending is now on track to hit over $1 trillion in 2027. That looks less like a cycle and more like a regime change. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Realized and Consensus Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow Hyperscaler free cash flow is expected to remain negative through 2027 as AI spending accelerates, before recovering in 2028. For now, that cash burn is the price of keeping up in the AI race. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus Forward 12-Month S&P 500 EPS Equal-weight S&P 500 prices and EPS have risen steadily together. Earnings are still doing the heavy lifting, but the gains are uneven and increasingly concentrated in a handful of companies and sectors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Change in S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Consensus Unlike the usual pattern of downward revisions during the season, S&P 500 earnings estimates turned out to be too conservative. Third-quarter numbers are now moving higher, a positive sign for earnings momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Revision to Consensus Hyperscaler Year/Year Capex Growth 2027 capex is still a moving target for hyperscalers. They look more likely to overshoot than undershoot on AI spending, which could keep AI-driven inflation stickier for longer. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Consensus Earnings Growth Expectations Analysts have rarely been this bullish on S&P 500 earnings heading into Q2 2026, a level typically seen only after recessions or at the start of a new cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Consensus sees S&P 500 earnings rising 22% year on year in 2Q 2026, driven largely by strong tech profits. Once again, tech is carrying the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research