Goldilocks Consensus (Above-Trend Growth and Below-Trend Inflation) Goldilocks consensus has peaked in January, as only 41% of fund managers expect lower inflation and higher growth. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium – Consensus Bottoms Up Earnings Yield – 10-Year Treasury Yield As low real yields are driving investors to equities, could stocks continue to rise if the equity risk premium falls to 3%? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Long-Term (6-10y) Real Global GDP Growth Forecast from Consensus Economics Long-term (6-10y) real global GDP growth forecast continues to decline. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 EPS Beat vs. Consensus Estimate Since 2000 Could the earnings season be the next stock rally? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimates There is little doubt that the bottom is in for this cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – Consensus FY2 P/E Multiple – Information Technology vs. S&P 500 S&P 500 valuations remain high, particularly info tech stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sell Side Consensus Indicator The Sell Side Indicator remains in neutral territory and suggests an expected return of +11% over the next 12 months for the S&P 500. time. This indicator suggests a target for the S&P 500 of 3,258 over the next 12 months. Image: BofA US Equity and Quant Strategy
Change in Bottom-Up Consensus 2020 S&P 500 EPS Estimates Goldman Sachs baseline forecast for S&P 500 earnings is $170 by the end of 2021. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus Earnings Expectations Consensus earnings expectations across the world have been revised downward over the past 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Valuation – Consensus FY2 PB and Return on Equity (ROE) This chart suggests that the current valuation of the S&P 500 appears broadly consistent with the correlation between consensus FY2 P/B and return on equity (R² = 0.42). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research