GS Asia Bear Market Risk Indicator – Recession Risk The GS Asia Bear Market Risk Indicator rose to 75% in August. Bear market risk is rising. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cass Freight Shipments Index (6ma) vs. U.S. GDP The chart shows the Cass Freight Shipments Index (6-month average). It suggests a weakness in U.S. GDP in 3Q19. The Cass Freight Shipments Index is a relative good predictive indicator of the U.S. economy. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Cass Freight Index.” Picture source:…
Hard Economic Data Hard economic data is improving in Eurozone, Asia Pacific, Latin America and the United States. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading
Trade War Hitting Global Trade Hard US-China trade war is hurting Asia export hubs. Singapore is heading for a recession. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart shows the U.S. core CPI expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. The chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). You may also…
Who Has Gained From Globalization? The Asian middle class and the global 1% have gained the most from globalization. Picture source: Harvard Business Publishing
U.S. Dollar Smile: Dollar Appreciation and Depreciation This chart illustrates very well the U.S. dollar smile. Currently, a synchronized slowdown suggests a stronger U.S. dollar. You may also like “U.S. Twin Deficits (% of GDP) Lead Real Trade Weighted Dollar Index by Two Years” and “U.S. Dollar and Relative Growth (GDP Spread).” Picture source: Nordea and…
First, Middle, Final Years of S&P 500 Bull Markets since 1975 The chart shows that the S&P 500 has generated a 26.9% return on average, in the final years of bull markets since 1975, excluding the current bull market. You may also like “Equity Market Performance Around Bear Markets.” Picture source: Legg Mason
Homeownership Disparity Deepens Since 1994, the gap between blacks and whites has widened, in part because starter-home prices have exploded, year after year. Inequality: you may also like “U.S. Unemployment Rate: Black or African Americans” and “U.S. Net Worth by Wealth Bracket” and “Countries With the Highest Housing Bubble Risks.” Picture Source: Bloomberg
Are Small Cap Stocks Overvalued? Small Cap Stocks Valuation: based on the forward PE ratio, the valuation of small cap stocks seems reasonable, with no sign of bubble. You may also like our “Stock Market Valuation.” Picture source: Bianco Research
