Asian Exports

Asian Exports There is a glimmer of hope of a recovery in Asian exports. The free fall in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea exports in early 2019 has stopped. Image: Danske Bank

Asia Pacific Economic Data Leads the U.S. Economy

Asia Pacific Economic Data Leads the U.S. Economy This chart suggests that Asia Pacific economic data leads the U.S. economy since the Great Financial Crisis. U.S. economic data becomes laggard. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator)

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart shows the U.S. core CPI expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. The chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). You may also…

Cass Freight Shipments Index (6ma) vs. U.S. GDP

Cass Freight Shipments Index (6ma) vs. U.S. GDP The chart shows the Cass Freight Shipments Index (6-month average). It suggests a weakness in U.S. GDP in 3Q19. The Cass Freight Shipments Index is a relative good predictive indicator of the U.S. economy. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Cass Freight Index.” Image: Macro…

Hard Economic Data

Hard Economic Data Hard economic data is improving in Eurozone, Asia Pacific, Latin America and the United States. Image: Arbor Research & Trading

Trade War Hitting Global Trade Hard

Trade War Hitting Global Trade Hard US-China trade war is hurting Asia export hubs. Singapore is heading for a recession. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Who Has Gained From Globalization?

Who Has Gained From Globalization? The Asian middle class and the global 1% have gained the most from globalization. Image: Harvard Business Publishing

U.S. Dollar Smile: Dollar Appreciation and Depreciation​

U.S. Dollar Smile: Dollar Appreciation and Depreciation This chart illustrates very well the U.S. dollar smile. Currently, a synchronized slowdown suggests a stronger U.S. dollar. You may also like “U.S. Twin Deficits (% of GDP) Lead Real Trade Weighted Dollar Index by Two Years” and “U.S. Dollar and Relative Growth (GDP Spread).” Image: Nordea and Macrobond