S&P 500 Valuation and Equity Risk Premium

S&P 500 Valuation and Equity Risk Premium This chart shows that the equity risk premium (earnings yield less 10-year Treasury yield) has declined to 3.9%. Picture source: Fidelity Investments

Equity Risk Premium

Equity Risk Premium The equity risk premium (earnings yield less bond yield) stands at 4.48% (the 90th percentile since 1985). It suggests that equities are cheap relative to bonds. Picture source: Fidelity Investments

Time Lags Between Indicators and Recessions

Time Lags Between Indicators and Recessions Chart showing that credit standards, earnings and the yield curve are the earliest recession indicators. Picture source: Oxford Economics