S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium – Consensus Bottoms Up Earnings Yield – 10-Year Treasury Yield As low real yields are driving investors to equities, could stocks continue to rise if the equity risk premium falls to 3%? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 Forward Earnings Yield and 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The S&P 500 forward earnings yield looks attractive vs. the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, but equity risk does not disappear. Image: The Wall Street Journal
Gap Between S&P 500 Earnings Yield and U.S. Treasury Yield This chart suggests that the S&P 500 looks attractive relative to bonds, as the spread between the S&P 500 earnings yield and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 368bps. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Risk Premium (ERP) – S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus 10-Year Treasury Yield Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 looks attractive relative to bonds. Image: SunTrust Private Wealth Management
Real Yield on U.S. Corporate Bond IG & HY vs. Equity Earnings Yield Real yields on U.S. corporate bonds (IG & HY) exceed equity earnings yield Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Less 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Goldman Sachs expects the yield gap will narrow to 395 bp by the end of the year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
12-Month Earnings Yield Less Fed Funds Rate The 12-month earnings yield less Fed funds rate is just back to its historical average. Image: KKR Global Macro
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium: Earnings Yield Minus 10-Year Treasury Yield Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 equity risk premium looks attractive. Image: SunTrust Private Wealth Management
S&P 500 Earnings Yield vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The gap between the S&P 500 earnings yield and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently relatively high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – 10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Yield vs. S&P 500 Forward Price/Earnings Ratio Do valuations still matter? During the dotcom bubble, forward valuation metrics were as rich as they are today. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management