U.S. Corporate Profits and S&P 500 Relative Total Return to U.S. Treasuries Earnings are still riding on nominal growth, and with valuations creeping higher, strategists see enough fuel to stay tactically bullish on U.S. equities into year-end. Image: BCA Research
Non-Financial Corporate Profits vs. 5-Year Average U.S. corporate profits have surged since the COVID-19 pandemic, far outpacing the real economy. Past cycles warn that such imbalances eventually correct when market sentiment shifts. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Corporate Profits as % of Real GDP U.S. corporate profits are running far ahead of real economy growth, reaching the widest gap on record. History shows that such divergences rarely last once markets face reality. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Corporate Profits as Percent of GDP Corporate America’s profit share remains elevated in 2025, a sign that the pandemic-era surge in profitability has proven surprisingly durable. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Share of U.S. Corporate Profits from Foreign Markets Foreign markets account for 13% of US corporate profits, while emerging markets contribute 4%. Yet, trade uncertainties and recent tariffs may threaten these contributions moving forward. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
After-Tax Nonfinancial Corporate Profits as Share of Gross Value Added While U.S. corporate profits fell in Q1 2025 due to higher costs and economic uncertainty, they remain historically high, reflecting both the strength and the vulnerability of large companies in the current economic climate. Image: Bloomberg
ISM Composite Index vs. Corporate Profits The decline in the ISM Composite Index indicates a weakening of the U.S. economy, which could lead to lower corporate profits. Image: Merrill Lynch Wealth Management
Corporate Profits After Tax vs. S&P 500 The gap between the S&P 500 and corporate profits after tax remains wide. Has the S&P 500 more room to fall? Image: Real Investment Advice
Earnings – Conference Board CEO Confidence vs. U.S. Corporate Profits YoY Change Should investors be worried about an earnings recession? CEO confidence doesn’t bode well for U.S. corporate profits. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Corporate Profits – S&P 500 Index Trailing 12-Mo. Operating Margin and U.S. CPI Less U.S. PPI The gap between CPI and PPI is deeply negative. Are U.S. coporate profits at risk in the next 12 months? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Valuation – U.S. Equity Market Cap to GDP and U.S. Corporate Profits to GDP Is the U.S. stock market expensive? The U.S. equity market capitalization to GDP ratio hits a new all-time high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research