U.S. Yield Curve Leads Corporate Profits

U.S. Yield Curve Leads Corporate Profits This chart suggests that the U.S. 10-year less 3-month yield curve leads corporate profits by two years. Picture source: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

S&P 500 EPS vs. U.S. Nonfinancial Corporate Profits

S&P 500 EPS vs. U.S. Nonfinancial Corporate Profits Creative accounting is imaginative ways to present accounts. The divergences between earnings and U.S. nonfinancial corporate profits occur before recessions. Picture source: Gavekal, Macrobond

What’s The Risk Of An Earnings Recession in 2019? Maybe Less Than You May Think

What’s The Risk Of An Earnings Recession in 2019? Maybe Less Than You May Think US-China trade uncertainty is the enemy of growth, and the impact of tariffs will weigh on corporate profits. But it looks like we’ll avert an earnings recession in 2019 if a trade deal with China is reached this summer. Picture…