Keyword: moving average

S&P Technology Sector and 200-Day Moving Average The chart suggests that the tech sector appears stretched, at nearly 20% above its 200-day moving average. Image: Strategas

Percentage of S&P 500 Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average Chart suggesting that a move above 80% for the percentage of stocks above 200-day moving average would provide bullish confirmation. Image: BofA Global Research

S&P 500 and Moving Average When the 200-day moving average is back above the 400-day moving average, it tends to be bullish for the S&P 500. Image: Commonwealth Financial

Valuation – S&P 500 Deviation From Long-Term Moving Average Interesting chart showing that the S&P 500 is currently more than 15% above its 3-year moving average. Image: Real Investment Advice

Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low Even if the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, the “Sahm recession indicator” forecasts a recession when the 3-month moving average national unemployment rate exceeds its minimum over previous 12 months by 0.5 percentage points. Picture source : Claudia Sahm, Board of Governors…

US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57% Why US long-term mortgage rates decline? Mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield which was lower this week, because the trade war between the United States and China pushes investors moving money from stocks to bonds. Bond yields fall as prices rise.…

NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. The NAAIM Exposure Index stands at 94% this week. NAAIM members are still very optimistic & bullish. Image: National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM)

Housing – U.S. Construction Spending and Recessions Historically, when the three month moving average turned negative, a U.S. recession occurred within a 12-month period, 7 times out of 9. Image: Pictet Asset Management

10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS The inversion of the yield curve between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys is not good news for S&P 500 operating EPS  (90D means 3-month T-bill). The 50 day moving average removes false signals since 1967. Image: Stifel

S&P 500 and U.S. Economic Surprises This chart shows the current divergence between the S&P 500 YoY and the 12-month moving average of the U.S. economic surprise index. Image: Oxford Economics and Macrobond