Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low

Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low Even if the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, the “Sahm recession indicator” forecasts a recession when the 3-month moving average national unemployment rate exceeds its minimum over previous 12 months by 0.5 percentage points. Picture source : Claudia Sahm, Board of Governors…

US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57%

US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57% Why US long-term mortgage rates decline? Mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield which was lower this week, because the trade war between the United States and China pushes investors moving money from stocks to bonds. Bond yields fall as prices rise.…

NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment​

NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. The NAAIM Exposure Index drops to 72%. NAAIM members are slightly less bullish than last week. Image: National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM)

Housing – U.S. Construction Spending and Recessions

Housing – U.S. Construction Spending and Recessions Historically, when the three month moving average turned negative, a U.S. recession occurred within a 12-month period, 7 times out of 9. Image: Pictet Asset Management

10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS

10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS The inversion of the yield curve between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys is not good news for S&P 500 operating EPS  (90D means 3-month T-bill). The 50 day moving average removes false signals since 1967. Image: Stifel

S&P 500 and U.S. Economic Surprises

S&P 500 and U.S. Economic Surprises This chart shows the current divergence between the S&P 500 YoY and the 12-month moving average of the U.S. economic surprise index. Image: Oxford Economics and Macrobond

Distribution of Forward Returns by 200MA Slope

Distribution of Forward Returns by 200MA Slope This great chart shows the distribution of forward returns when the slope of S&P 500’s 200-day moving average is lower, flat or higher. Image: Ritholtz Wealth Management

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming The probability of being unemployed in a given month in the United States, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, is one of the best indicators to monitor for signs a U.S.…