U.S. Consumer Spending and Nonfarm Payroll Growth

U.S. Consumer Spending and Nonfarm Payroll Growth U.S. consumers may spend less going forward. Slower job growth usually leads to a slowdown in consumer spending. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

Fed Rate Cuts Boost Consumer Spending

Fed Rate Cuts Boost Consumer Spending The chart shows real PCE around first Fed rate cut: recession vs. no recession. Fed rate cuts are more effective during a recession. Image: Ned Davis Research

Home Builder Sentiment Leads Consumer Spending

Home Builder Sentiment Leads Consumer Spending Interesting chart suggesting that the NAHB housing market index leads the change in consumer spending. The latest reading for July suggests that the outlook for the U.S. economy is expected to slow. Image: Dr Thomas Kevin Swift

U.S. Consumer Confidence and U.S. Unemployment

U.S. Consumer Confidence and U.S. Unemployment A tight U.S. labor market and low interest rates should continue to support U.S. consumer confidence and spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model

U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…

Consumption Growth and Household Debt

Consumption Growth and Household Debt This chart shows the effects of household debt and suggests that high household debt limits consumer spending. Image: Oxford Economics

Late-cycle Worries

Late-cycle Worries Consumers are currently more optimistic today than about the future. That’s worrying because consumer spending contributes 70% of total U.S. production. Image: Deutsche Bank