Quarterly Dollar Notional Amounts of Bonds Downgraded from IG to HY The pace of rating downgrades has accelerated markedly in recent months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Real Yield on U.S. Corporate Bond IG & HY vs. Equity Earnings Yield Real yields on U.S. corporate bonds (IG & HY) exceed equity earnings yield Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. Real GDP vs. Stock-to-Bond Ratio and Recession This chart shows the correlation between US real GDP and the stock-to-bond ratio, and suggests a recession in the United States. Image: Alpine Macro
S&P 500, Treasury Bond, Global GDP, EUR/USD – Protracted Scenario Projections This table suggests protracted scenario projections. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
S&P 500 Return Last of Month Based on MTD Bond-Equity Performance Historically, pension fund rebalancing into equities has had a mild impact on performance. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Amount of Distressed Bonds Driven by the coronavirus pandemic and the collapse of oil prices, the amount of distressed bonds has surged to the highest level since 2009. Image: Bloomberg
Cumulative Bond Flows Since 2009 Flows into high-yield funds had been out of favor in this cycle. Is this good news? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Weekly Mutual and Exchange Traded Bond Fund Flows When investors are forced to sell to cover losses, this is liquidation. Image: Financial Times
Investment Grade Bond Maturity Wall Should investors be concerned about the IG bond maturity wall? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Recession – U.S. Real GDP and Stock-to-Bond Ratio This chart shows the correlation between US real GDP and the stock-to-bond ratio, suggesting a recession. Image: Alpine Macro