U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Spreads

U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Spreads While tight high-yield credit spreads often indicate strong market confidence, they can also be a warning sign of excessive investor complacency. Given this dual nature, it’s crucial for investors to monitor credit spreads closely. Image: Topdown Charts

Bond Flows

Bond Flows The current interest rate environment has created an attractive landscape for bank loan funds, driving robust inflows. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

China – Nominal GDP Growth vs. 10-Year Government Bond Yield

China – Nominal GDP Growth vs. 10-Year Government Bond Yield The persistent drop in bond yields is often seen as a sign of increasing investor caution regarding economic growth, which does not bode well for China’s nominal GDP growth moving forward. Image: Alpine Macro

Bonds Flows

Bonds Flows Since January 2024, there has been a notable trend of strong inflows into bond ETFs, particularly high-yield bonds, driven by favorable yield conditions and an overall “risk-on” sentiment in the market. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Corporate Bond Spreads

U.S. Corporate Bond Spreads U.S. corporate bond spreads are currently at historically tight levels, suggesting potential bubble-like conditions. While a major correction is not guaranteed, several factors indicate rising risks in the first half of 2025. Image: Alpine Macro

High-Yield Bond Returns

High-Yield Bond Returns 2024 has proven to be a terrific year for low-quality high yield investments, particularly within the CCC-rated cohort, which has seen returns exceeding 16%, as economic resilience exceeded expectations. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Bond Volatility – MOVE Index

Bond Volatility – MOVE Index The recent decline in U.S. rates volatility, as shown by the MOVE index, is like finding a calm sea after a storm—great news for both the bond market and the broader economy. Image: The Daily Shot

Equity, Bond, FX and Oil Volatility Premiums

Equity, Bond, FX and Oil Volatility Premiums Volatility premiums have significantly declined across asset classes after the U.S. elections. As election results become known, market uncertainty diminishes, leading to lower volatility premiums and increased stability. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

U.S. Bond Yields

U.S. Bond Yields The era of ultra-low interest rates that followed the 2008 financial crisis should be seen as a historical anomaly. It is unlikely that U.S. bond yields will return to their post-crisis lows. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Weekly Bond Fund Flows

Weekly Bond Fund Flows Over the past week, long-term bond funds have experienced significant inflows, indicating a shift in investment strategies amid changing economic conditions and expectations of lower interest rates. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

IG Bond Flows

IG Bond Flows Investment-grade corporate bond funds continue to attract investors, resulting in the biggest 5-week inflow. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy