10-Year Rolling Annualized Equity vs. Bond Performance (Ex Post Equity Risk Premia) On a 10-year rolling annualized basis, U.S. equities have outperformed bonds by one of the widest margins since the 1920s and 1950s. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. U.S. 10-Year Bond Correlation Since the COVID-19 pandemic, equities and bonds have increasingly moved in tandem, especially during inflation spikes and rate hikes, weakening bonds’ traditional role as a diversifier. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
2-Month U.S. Equity/U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield Correlation The two-month correlation between U.S. equities and 10-year yields has broken down to late-1990s extremes, typically a recipe for higher volatility and greater pressure on duration-sensitive sectors, especially growth stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
CTAs Exposure to Bonds CTAs’ overall allocation to bonds sits in the 8th percentile, indicating little appetite for rates risk. Fixed income is simply not where they want exposure right now. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index With the MOVE index trending lower, U.S. rate volatility has cooled, which brings a dose of relief to bond desks and, by extension, the economy. It’s definitely a welcome breather for the markets. Image: The Daily Shot
Valuation Percentile for Equity, Credit and Bond Valuations matter more over the medium term than in the moment. In years like 2025, robust growth let markets climb anyway, powered by rising profits despite high price tags. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bond Fund Flows (Last 4 Weeks) Bond funds keep drawing strong inflows as investors look for yield and stability in a world of moderating inflation and lingering uncertainty. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
7-10 Year Government Bonds, Total Return in US$ Since the tech war began, Chinese government bonds have outperformed their U.S., German and Japanese counterparts, delivering higher total returns in recent years. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Performance – Equities, Bonds and Commodities Equities have held up with surprising strength in 2025, buoyed by solid earnings, rapid AI growth, and easy monetary policy, leaving bonds and commodities trailing behind. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Returns – Global Equities vs. Global Bonds vs. Gold vs. World Portfolio Since 1950, the world portfolio has earned a real 4.1% annual return — global equities led with 7.3%, gold lagged at 2.5%, and global bonds barely reached 1.8%. The long-run verdict is clear: equities have won. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Households’ Allocation to Equity, Bond and Cash Americans have never been so invested—literally—in the market, with household equity allocations at all-time highs, a boom shadowed by warnings of how sentiment can sour overnight. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research