Search Results for: spread

High Yield Credit Spread and Move Index Does higher rate credit volatility imply a widening of high-yield spreads? Picture source: Quill Intelligence, LLC

10Y-3M Yield Curve Spread Leads U.S. Real GDP Growth This chart suggests that the 10Y-3M yield spread leads U.S. real GDP growth by one year. So, what about real GDP growth in 2020?

10Y-3M Treasury Yield Spread After First Rate Cut and Recessions After the first Fed rate cut, a steepening of the U.S. 10Y-3M yield spread could suggest a recession is coming. Picture source: Charles Schwab

U.S. Recession Probability Based on Credit Spreads and Treasury Spreads This chart suggests that the recession probability is low, about 10% based on credit spreads. Picture source: Charles Schwab

ISM Manufacturing Index and HY-IG Spread This chart shows the correlation between the ISM Manufacturing Index and the HY-IG spread. Picture source: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Yield Spread (Baa Bonds – Utility Dividends) This interesting chart suggests that utilities are currently cheap. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S./German 2-Year Yield Spread vs. U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate This chart shows the Euro vs. US Dollar (EUR/USD) and how a wider U.S./German 2-year yield spread corresponds to a stronger US dollar. R² = 0.62 since 2005.

U.S. 10-Year/3-Month Yield Spread and Recessions This chart shows that inversions of the U.S. 10-Year/3-Month yield spread have preceded recent recessions Picture source: Bloomberg

U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Spread vs. Fed Funds Target Rate Interesting chart showing the U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve steepness versus. the Fed funds target rate (inverted). Picture source: Credit Suisse

Small Bank Lending and 2-Year/Fed Funds Spread This chart shows the correlation between small bank lending and falling rates, and the negative effect of an inverted yield curve on small bank lending. Picture source: TS Lombard