AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull – Bear Spread The AAII U.S. investor sentiment bull – bear spread remains in negative territory, indicating a prevailing pessimistic outlook among AAII U.S. investors. Image: The Daily Shot
Correlation Between AAII Bull-Bear Spread and S&P 500 Returns The AAII bull-bear spread may not necessarily be a reliable predictor of future S&P 500 returns. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
GAAP Earnings vs. PPI to CPI Spread The PPI to CPI spread suggests that there could be ongoing pressure on earnings. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Yield Curve – Which Yield Spread Matters? An inverted yield curve, which has preceded every U.S. recession over the past 50 years, is something that investors should care about. Image: Real Investment Advice
AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread The AAII investor sentiment bull minus bear spread is in the 78th percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. HY – IG Spread The ISM Manufacturing Index in contraction is a sign of a potential recession, while the tight U.S. HY/IG spread suggests continued positive growth. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inflation – PPI to CPI Spread vs. S&P 500 A collapse of the spread between PPI (Producer Price Index) and CPI (Consumer Price Index) may be interpreted as a sign of decreased inflationary pressures, which is a positive factor for the U.S. stock market. Image: Real Investment Advice
Yield Curve – U.S. 10-Year – 3-Month Treasury Spread So far, the inversion of the U.S. 10Y-3M yield curve continues to deepen. Image: The Daily Shot
One-Year U.S. Treasury Credit Default Swap Spread The one-year U.S. Treasury credit default swap spread is currently twice what it was during the 2011 and 2013 debates over the debt ceiling, indicating that there is greater concern in the market about the risk of default. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Yield Curve – U.S. 10-Year – 2-Year Government Bond Spread Historically, the re-steepening of the 10Y-2Y U.S. Treasury yield curve from the trough has preceded recessions. Image: The Daily Shot