Inflation – PPI to CPI Spread vs. S&P 500 A collapse of the spread between PPI (Producer Price Index) and CPI (Consumer Price Index) may be interpreted as a sign of decreased inflationary pressures, which is a positive factor for the U.S. stock market. Image: Real Investment Advice
Yield Curve – U.S. 10-Year – 3-Month Treasury Spread So far, the inversion of the U.S. 10Y-3M yield curve continues to deepen. Image: The Daily Shot
One-Year U.S. Treasury Credit Default Swap Spread The one-year U.S. Treasury credit default swap spread is currently twice what it was during the 2011 and 2013 debates over the debt ceiling, indicating that there is greater concern in the market about the risk of default. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Yield Curve – U.S. 10-Year – 2-Year Government Bond Spread Historically, the re-steepening of the 10Y-2Y U.S. Treasury yield curve from the trough has preceded recessions. Image: The Daily Shot
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull – Bear Spread The AAII US investor sentiment bull – bear spread remains negative, which can be seen as a headwind for a new bull market. Image: The Daily Shot
Near Term Forward Spread Recession Over 12 Months The near-term forward spread indicator (spread between U.S. 3-month rates and the U.S. 3-month rate 18 months forward) is flashing red. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Labor Market – Spread Between Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators and Initial Unemployment Claims U.S. jobless claims are still near historic lows, but are expected to rise in the near future. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Spread Between BBB-Rated Corporate Bond Yield and 90-Day U.S. Treasury Bill Yield As Warren Buffett once said, “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Investment Grade (IG) Spread Will IG spreads widen in the coming months? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
High-Yield (HY) Spread USD Will high-yield spreads widen in the coming months? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research