U.S./German 2-Year Yield Spread vs. U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate This chart shows the Euro vs. US Dollar (EUR/USD) and how a wider U.S./German 2-year yield spread corresponds to a stronger US dollar. R² = 0.62 since 2005.
U.S. 10-Year/3-Month Yield Spread and Recessions This chart shows that inversions of the U.S. 10-Year/3-Month yield spread have preceded recent recessions Picture source: Bloomberg
U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Spread vs. Fed Funds Target Rate Interesting chart showing the U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve steepness versus. the Fed funds target rate (inverted). Picture source: Credit Suisse
Small Bank Lending and 2-Year/Fed Funds Spread This chart shows the correlation between small bank lending and falling rates, and the negative effect of an inverted yield curve on small bank lending. Picture source: TS Lombard
Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread Probability of US recession in the next 12 months: 31.48% Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull vs. AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bear Spread The current spread suggests excessive pessimism. Picture source: Nautilus Research
Spread Between 10-ROC of S&P 500 and Treasury Bonds This interesting chart shows a 10 trading day rate-of-change (ROC) for the SP500 and for near-month Treasury bond futures prices. A price low is forming now. Picture source: McClellan Financial Publications, Inc.
U.S. Dollar and Relative Growth (GDP Spread) The chart shows that the U.S. Dollar REER is about relative growth (U.S. GDP – Other Developed Market GDP YoY). You may also like “U.S. Twin Deficits (% of GDP) Lead Real Trade Weighted Dollar Index by Two Years” and “U.S. Twin Deficits (% of GDP) Lead U.S.…
10Y-3M Treasury Yield Spread Adjusted for QE and QT Adjusted for quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT), the 10-year minus 3-month yield curve may have inverted in December 2018. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Conference Board U.S. LEI and U.S. Treasury 10-Year/2-Year Spread Is a rate cut justified in July? Just take a look at the Conference Board Leading Economic Index and the U.S. Treasury 10-Year/2-Year spread. Picture source: Strategas
