Yield Curve – U.S. 10-Year – 2-Year Government Bond Spread Is the U.S. economy heading for a recession? Historically, a prolonged yield curve inversion has been a good indicator of recession. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Index and Yield Spread (A-Rated vs. Junk Bonds) The S&P 500 tends to fall when yield spreads between A-rated and junk bonds widen. It is therefore a leading indicator to watch closely. Image: Real Investment Advice
High-Yield (HY) Spread USD Will high-yield spreads widen in 2023? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bull – Bear Spread The AAII US investor sentiment bull – bear spread is still very negative, which is contrarian bullish. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Yield Curve – Which Yield Spread Matters? Investors should care about an inverted yield curve, which has preceded every U.S. recession over the past 50 years. Image: Real Investment Advice
Inflation – PPI to CPI Spread vs. S&P 500 When the spread between PPI and CPI widens, it does not bode well for corporate profits. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. IG Credit Spread The S&P 500 tends to fall when credit spreads widen. It is therefore a leading indicator to watch closely. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium vs. U.S. Agg OAS Spread to Treasuries The S&P 500 equity risk premium remains too low relative to IG credit spreads. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Relative to Current Levels, by the End of this Year… S&P 500, 10-Year UST Yields, 10Y-2Y Yield Curve, Credit Spreads Will the S&P 500 and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields be higher by the end of this year? Image: Deutsche Bank
Liquidity – S&P 500 21-Day Realized Volatility vs. Median S&P 500 Stock Bid-Ask Spread As equity market liquidity has deteriorated, investors should expect market swings to continue. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research