Real Rates – U.S. Agg. Corporate Avg. Option-Adjusted Spread and 10-Year U.S. Real Yield Rising U.S. real rates could lead to wider credit spreads. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
BB vs. BBB Corporate Bond Spread The relative spread between BB and BBB corporate bonds remains stable, which is good news. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) and Real 5y5y Swap Spread (EUR – USD) – Leading Indicator The real 5y5y swap spread (EUR – USD) tends to lead EUR/USD by 9 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Spread Between Equity and Government Bond 10-Year Rolling Returns Will U.S. stocks continue to outperform government bonds? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Yield Curve – U.S. 10Y-2Y Treasury Yield Spread and U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield Does the flattening of the yield curve signal skepticism about the prospects for economic growth? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Equity Implied Volatility and Credit High Yield Spreads U.S. equity implied volatility remains at relatively high levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Cycle – Spread Between Conference Board Consumer Confidence and UMich Surveys Morgan Stanley expects a “mid-cycle transition”, with a 10%-plus correction for the U.S. stock market. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Dollar and Federal Reserve – ECB Shadow Rate Spread Is the U.S. dollar finding a support, as it tends to track the Fed – ECB shadow rate spread? Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Stock Correlations with Treasury Yields and HY Spreads The correlation between stocks and Treasury yields has broken down since the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine announcement, while the relationship with HY spreads has remained stable. Image: Credit Suisse
Asia/U.S. High Yield Bond Spread Asian junk bonds look attractive relative to U.S. junk bonds. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management