Share of Tariff Cost Burden While the importer of record pays the tariff legally, the economic cost of tariffs is distributed across U.S. consumers, U.S. businesses that rely on imports, and foreign exporters. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Historical U.S. Tariff Rate and Implied Rate Based on Latest Announcements If the average effective U.S. tariff rate rises to 20.7%, the economic impact could be substantial. Each 1 percentage point increase in the tariff rate is estimated to reduce economic growth by 0.05 percentage point. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Effective Tariff Rate The consensus is that tariffs typically exert upward pressure on prices, dampen retail sales, and reduce business confidence. Image: Bloomberg
Impact of Higher Tariffs on the U.S. Core PCE Price Index The coming inflation rebound is expected be limited in scope and duration, meaning it is unlikely to trigger the kind of persistent inflation psychology that can drive a sustained wage-price spiral. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 2025 EPS Estimate After Tariff Impact Deutsche Bank slashed its 2025 S&P 500 EPS estimate to $240 (from $282) due to tariffs’ outsized burden on U.S. companies. The S&P 500 index could rally to 6,150 if trade tensions meaningfully abate. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Tariffs Impact on YoY U.S. GDP Growth Goldman Sachs forecasts that tariffs will reduce U.S. GDP growth by approximately 0.8 percentage points over the next year, with tax cuts and regulatory easing only offsetting 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points of this decline. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Tariffs and U.S. Government Revenues Tariffs played a crucial role in the early industrialization of the United States, but their effectiveness in today’s global economy are potentially detrimental as they act as an economic drag, hurting more industries than they help. Image: Deutsche Bank
Which Countries Would Be Most Hit by Tariffs? Mexico, Vietnam, and Canada stand to lose the most if the United States implements new tariffs, given their strong economic relationships with the U.S.. Image: Deutsche Bank
How Much Tariffs Could Cost Each State? This chart shows how much each state would be affected by China’s export tariffs. Image: howmuch.net
Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) and Tariffs Trade-sensitive Chinese yuan could move lower with tariffs headlines. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
Estimated Tariff Impact on Core Inflation President Trump’s decision to increase the tariff rate will lead to a greater boost to U.S. consumer prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research