U.S. CEO Confidence Index The sharp decline in U.S. CEO optimism in 2025 is largely attributed to new tariffs, trade policy uncertainty, inflation, and unpredictable government actions, reversing the post-election optimism. Image: J.P. Morgan
Conference Board CEO Confidence CEO optimism is closely tied to equity market performance, with market declines often precipitating a drop in executive confidence. Image: Deutsche Bank
CEO Confidence vs. S&P 500 Annual % Change Strong CEO confidence typically bodes well for U.S. stocks, as there’s a correlation between executive optimism and annual market performance. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Buybacks vs. CEO Confidence (Leading Indicator) S&P 500 buybacks are likely to rebound, as CEO confidence typically leads buybacks by 6 months. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Corporate Sector Profits vs. CEO Confidence Weak CEO confidence suggests that U.S. corporate profits are at risk. Image: Longview Economics
U.S. Labor Market – CEO Confidence Survey vs. Jobless Claims As CEO confidence declines, the fight against inflation could cause job losses. Image: Real Investment Advice
Earnings – Conference Board CEO Confidence vs. U.S. Corporate Profits YoY Change Should investors be worried about an earnings recession? CEO confidence doesn’t bode well for U.S. corporate profits. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
CEO Confidence vs. U.S. Business Capex Weak CEO confidence does not bode well for capex. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 vs. U.S. CEO Confidence Survey Economic Expectations The S&P 500 is in “Fear of Missing Out” mode, while CEO confidence has fallen to its lowest level in a decade. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. Consumer Confidence and CEO Confidence The trade war keeps weighing on CEO confidence, which is near record lows, while consumer confidence has remained relatively strong. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
CEO Confidence & Business Confidence Deutsche Bank points out that something happened to CEO confidence and business confidence when the trade war escalated in 2018H2. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research