Search Results for: surprise

City Economic Surprise Index – U.S. Economy vs. Global Economy Nice chart showing that the U.S. relative economic outperformance. Picture source: Quill Intelligence, LLC

Citi Economic Surprise Index and S&P 500 The Citi Economic Surprise Index has risen sharply, but it has an inconsistent history in terms of its correlation with the S&P 500. It is a cyclical indicator: high readings suggest favouring defensives over cyclicals, and low readings suggest favouring cyclicals over defensives. Picture source: Renaissance Macro

Citi Economic Surprise Index vs. EUR/USD Weaker European growth relative to the U.S. could weaken Euro/U.S. Dollar. Picture source: Credit Suisse

Citi Global Economic Surprise Index and Baltic Dry Index The divergence between the Baltic Dry Index and the Citi Global Economic Surprise Index could suggest that “global economy is likely to bottom soon.” Picture source: Nomura

S&P 500 and U.S. Economic Surprises This chart shows the current divergence between the S&P 500 YoY and the 12-month moving average of the U.S. economic surprise index. Picture source: Oxford Economics and Macrobond

S&P 500 vs. U.S. Economic Surprises This chart shows the large divergence between the S&P 500 Total Return and the U.S. economic surprise. You may also like “S&P 500 at Risk of a 10% Correction.” Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield This chart shows a good correlation between Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and 10-year Treasury yield. Lower yields ahead? You may also like “For the Last Few Years, Equity Markets Have Been Leading Bond Markets.” Picture source: Yardeni Research, Inc.

Was the US Stock Market Crash on October 19, 1987, a “Black Swan” Event? A “Black Swan” is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise with a major effect, which is extremely difficult to predict. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The US stock market on October 19, 1987,…