Citi Economic Surprises The U.S. economy has held up better than its peers since the Middle East conflict escalated, as growth prospects elsewhere have dimmed, pushing investors toward the U.S. as the steadier bet. Image: TS Lombard
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies Earnings season keeps reinforcing the same message: corporate profits aren’t cracking yet, with 61% of S&P 500 firms smashing Q1 estimates by at least a standard deviation, while just 5% fell short. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. and Global Economic Surprises Global economic surprises have surged to a two‑year high, with the U.S. gaining momentum, a mix that usually bodes well for stocks and credit in the near term. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Economic Surprise Index Weakening U.S. economic data and evolving fiscal conditions have led Goldman Sachs to revise down Treasury yield forecasts, anticipating a more accommodative monetary policy with earlier and multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025. Image: Bloomberg
Trade Weighted Dollar vs. U.S. Inflation Surprises Since February 2025, the U.S. dollar has closely tracked inflation surprises, as both headline and core inflation came in lower than expected, reflecting Fed policy expectations and concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Citi Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Economic momentum-reflected in growth data and surprises relative to forecasts-continues to be the main force driving U.S. Treasury yields. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
U.S. Economic Surprise Index A declining U.S. Economic Surprise Index, caused by economic data consistently underperforming expectations, can negatively impact equity performance. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Citi Economic Surprise Index The falling Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index indicates that economic data is no longer surpassing expectations, but this doesn’t necessarily signal a sudden economic downturn. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Aggregate EPS Surprise Corporate America has once again demonstrated its ability to sustain profit margins, with a strong Q4 2024 earnings season surpassing expectations by a significant margin. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Economic Surprise Index A rising U.S. Economic Surprise Index is often associated with positive equity performance due to enhanced investor sentiment and expectations of continued economic growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Economic Surprise – CPI Surprise The improving economic surprise index and favorable macroeconomic conditions suggest that U.S. equities may better withstand inflation compared to previous cycles. Image: BofA Global Research