Trade Weighted Dollar vs. U.S. Inflation Surprises Since February 2025, the U.S. dollar has closely tracked inflation surprises, as both headline and core inflation came in lower than expected, reflecting Fed policy expectations and concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index The recent decline in the U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates that the economy is currently underperforming analysts’ expectations. Image: Real Investment Advice
Citi Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Economic momentum-reflected in growth data and surprises relative to forecasts-continues to be the main force driving U.S. Treasury yields. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies This quarter’s earnings season demonstrates continued resilience in corporate profitability. 51% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q1 earnings estimates by at least 1 stdev., while 12% have missed by at least 1 stdev. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Economic Surprise Index A declining U.S. Economic Surprise Index, caused by economic data consistently underperforming expectations, can negatively impact equity performance. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Citi Economic Surprise Index The falling Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index indicates that economic data is no longer surpassing expectations, but this doesn’t necessarily signal a sudden economic downturn. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Aggregate EPS Surprise Corporate America has once again demonstrated its ability to sustain profit margins, with a strong Q4 2024 earnings season surpassing expectations by a significant margin. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Economic Surprise Index A rising U.S. Economic Surprise Index is often associated with positive equity performance due to enhanced investor sentiment and expectations of continued economic growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Economic Surprise – CPI Surprise The improving economic surprise index and favorable macroeconomic conditions suggest that U.S. equities may better withstand inflation compared to previous cycles. Image: BofA Global Research
Citi U.S. Inflation Surprise Index Equities tend to perform well when the U.S. Economic Surprise Index increases, as this index indicates how much economic data surpasses expectations. Image: The Daily Shot
1-Day Post-Reporting Performance vs. S&P 500 on EPS and Sales Surprise Companies that exceeded both sales and EPS expectations outperformed the S&P 500 by 2.4ppt the following day, which is the strongest performance since 4Q2018 and considerably higher than the historical average of 1.5ppt. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy