S&P 500 Index and UBS Weighted Global Growth Surprise Index The divergence between the S&P 500 Index and the global growth surprise index could explain why this bull market is so hated. Image: Swedbank Research
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies To date, 60% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q3 earnings estimates by 1 standard deviation, and 10% have missed estimates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
City Economic Surprise Index – U.S. Economy vs. Global Economy Nice chart showing that the U.S. relative economic outperformance. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
Citi Economic Surprise Index and S&P 500 The Citi Economic Surprise Index has risen sharply, but it has an inconsistent history in terms of its correlation with the S&P 500. It is a cyclical indicator: high readings suggest favouring defensives over cyclicals, and low readings suggest favouring cyclicals over defensives. Image: Renaissance Macro
Citi Economic Surprise Index vs. EUR/USD Weaker European growth relative to the U.S. could weaken Euro/U.S. Dollar. Image: Credit Suisse
Citi Global Economic Surprise Index and Baltic Dry Index The divergence between the Baltic Dry Index and the Citi Global Economic Surprise Index could suggest that “global economy is likely to bottom soon.” Image: Nomura
S&P 500 and U.S. Economic Surprises This chart shows the current divergence between the S&P 500 YoY and the 12-month moving average of the U.S. economic surprise index. Image: Oxford Economics and Macrobond
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Economic Surprises This chart shows the large divergence between the S&P 500 Total Return and the U.S. economic surprise. You may also like “S&P 500 at Risk of a 10% Correction.” Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Citigroup Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield This chart shows a good correlation between Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and 10-year Treasury yield. Lower yields ahead? You may also like “For the Last Few Years, Equity Markets Have Been Leading Bond Markets.” Image: Yardeni Research, Inc.
Was the US Stock Market Crash on October 19, 1987, a “Black Swan” Event? A “Black Swan” is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise with a major effect, which is extremely difficult to predict. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The US stock market on October 19, 1987,…