U.S. Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that U.S. jobless claims lead the unemployment rate by 7 months. U.S. initial claims for unemployment fall more than expected to 209,000. Picture source: Oxford Economics
U.S. Jobless Claims and Recessions Before a recession, U.S. initial jobless claims bottomed. Picture source: Jeroen Blokland
Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims Interesting chart showing a good correlation between the consumer confidence spread and jobless claims. As a reminder, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines before a recession. You may also like “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.” Picture source:…
What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States? Weekly jobless claims decreased to 209,000. Currently, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, the probability is less than 0.14% of being unemployed in a given month in the United States.
