Bear Market – S&P 500 Lows Compared to Initial Jobless Claims vs. Unemployment Rate The S&P 500 tends to bottom several weeks before the peak in jobless claims. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
U.S. Jobless Claims by States Coronavirus job losses hit the following states the hardest. Image: Yahoo Finance
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims The current low level of initial jobless claims suggests that the U.S. labor market is tight. Image: The Daily Shot – The Wall Street Journal
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims This chart suggests that initial jobless claims are expected to rise. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Probability of U.S. Recession vs. Initial Jobless Claims The probability of U.S. recession beginning within 12 months decreases. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims The current low level of continuing jobless claims is about the same as last year. Image: The Daily Shot – The Wall Street Journal
U.S. Jobless Claims and Recession Currently, U.S. jobless claims look good. This chart suggests that jobless claims tend to rise above the red line, prior to a recession.
S&P 500 and U.S. Initial Jobless Claims So far, the correlation between the S&P 500 and initial jobless claims has worked well for years. Image: UBS
U.S. Labor Market: Jobs Gains and Jobless Claims The U.S. labor market is slowing, but historically, recessions have been preceded by a slowing in job gains and a pickup in jobless claims. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that U.S. jobless claims lead the unemployment rate by 7 months. U.S. initial claims for unemployment fall more than expected to 209,000. Image: Oxford Economics