S&P 500 and U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

S&P 500 and U.S. Initial Jobless Claims So far, the correlation between the S&P 500 and initial jobless claims has worked well for years. Image: UBS

U.S. Labor Market: Jobs Gains and Jobless Claims

U.S. Labor Market: Jobs Gains and Jobless Claims The U.S. labor market is slowing, but historically, recessions have been preceded by a slowing in job gains and a pickup in jobless claims. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

US: Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate

U.S. Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that U.S. jobless claims lead the unemployment rate by 7 months. U.S. initial claims for unemployment fall more than expected to 209,000. Image: Oxford Economics

Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims

Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims Interesting chart showing a good correlation between the consumer confidence spread and jobless claims. As a reminder, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines before a recession. You may also like “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.” Image: Pictet…

What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States?

What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States? Weekly initial jobless claims decreased to 211,000. Currently, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, the probability is less than 0.14% of being unemployed in a given month in the United…