Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims

Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims Interesting chart showing a good correlation between the consumer confidence spread and jobless claims. As a reminder, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines before a recession. See also “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.” Picture source: Pictet Asset…

US: Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate

US: Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate US initial claims for unemployment benefits indicate a decline in the unemployment rate by year-end. Oxford Economics forecasts an unemployment rate of 3.5% by December 2019. Picture source: Oxford Economics