Sentiment/VIX Composite vs. S&P 500 Markets may be rallying, but the Sentiment/VIX Composite Index and broader positioning data show investors are still hedging their bets—more guarded than convinced about the rally’s staying power. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 and VIX Closes Down 25% from Intraday Peak Good news for bulls: big fear fades, stocks surge. Each time the VIX finished more than 25% off its intraday high, the S&P 500 was higher six and twelve months later—no exceptions. Since 1990, average one‑year gain: 15%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment After a brief reset earlier this year, the Euphoriameter—a mix of forward P/E, VIX, and bullish sentiment—is heading north again, a reminder that optimism still has the upper hand in markets. Image: Topdown Charts
VIX Seasonality Volatility flare-ups aren’t uncommon this time of year, as political risk and trade tensions bubble back to the surface, sending ripples of anxiety through global markets. Image: Topdown Charts
MOVE, VIX and FX Volatility The “Goldilocks summer” of market calm is essentially over, as mounting concerns about the U.S. economy awaken markets from their seasonal slumber. Image: Bloomberg
VIX – Volatility Index Market confidence and complacency, spurred by expectations of Fed rate cuts and strong economic data, have pushed the VIX to its lowest level in 2025; yet, volatility may resurface before year-end. Image: The Daily Chartbook
S&P 500 and VIX Although U.S. stocks are rallying and volatility remains low—reflecting market confidence—significant underlying threats from rising trade frictions and policy uncertainty persist. Image: Bloomberg
VIX Buy Signals After VIX surges, the S&P 500 rose in 85% of instances over the next few months—but not during recessions. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 and VIX Above 50 The VIX rose above 60 during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. In both cases, the stock market had already bottomed before the VIX dropped below 31. This pattern seems to be repeating in 2025. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
S&P 500 After VIX Spikes >50 (Intraday), First Instance in a Month An intraday VIX spike to 50, often triggered by panic-driven market declines, typically signals a recovery ahead. Historically, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 20% in the year following such events. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads vs. VIX High-yield credit spreads have widened by over 150bps from their 17-year lows, signaling growing financial stress. While rising credit spreads have often been a precursor to recessions, they can sometimes lead to false signals. Image: Topdown Charts