99% Correlation with the US Stock Market and an R² of 0.97 since 1970

99% Correlation with the US Stock Market and an R² of 0.97 since 1970 Our forecasting models have a fantastic 99% correlation with the US stock market on a quarterly basis since 1970 and an R² of 0.97. It means that 97 percent of the US stock market variance is predictable by the flows of data…

S&P 500 Selloffs and Recession Duration

S&P 500 Selloffs and Recession Duration This chart shows the correlation between the duration of recessions and the severity of S&P 500 selloffs (R² = 0.69). Image: BofA Global Research

S&P 500 EPS Growth vs. Buyback Growth

S&P 500 EPS Growth vs. Buyback Growth This chart shows the historical correlation between S&P 500 EPS growth and buyback growth (R² = 0.32). Goldman Sachs expects buybacks to fall by 50% during 2020 and EPS by 33%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Index vs. Reported EPS

S&P 500 Index vs. Reported EPS This chart shows the very high correlation between stock prices and earnings since 1871 (R² = 0.97) Image: Fidelity Investments

Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index

Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 4% in December. Trucks represent 70% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows how the U.S. stock market has increased in line with the physical size and expansion of the US economy (R² = 0.95 since…

China 10-Year Yield and Copper to Gold Ratio

China 10-Year Yield and Copper to Gold Ratio Chart showing the weekly correlation between China 10-year yield and the copper to gold ratio (R² = 0.58). Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Real GDP Leading Indicator

U.S. Real GDP Leading Indicator The U.S. real GDP leading indicator suggests an improvement in the second half of 2020 (R² = 0.74). Image: KKR Global Macro

Business and Industrial Sentiment vs. U.S. GDP

Business and Industrial Sentiment vs. U.S. GDP Chart suggesting that business and industrial surveys have not explained U.S. economic growth over the past decade (R² = 0). Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Fed Balance Sheet vs. S&P 500

Fed Balance Sheet vs. S&P 500 Chart suggesting that since October 2019, a 1% increase in the Fed balance sheet has been associated with a 0.9% increase in the S&P 500,  (R² = 0.52). Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research