Search Results for: R²

S&P 500 Selloffs and Recession Duration This chart shows the correlation between the duration of recessions and the severity of S&P 500 selloffs (R² = 0.69). Image: BofA Global Research

S&P 500 EPS Growth vs. Buyback Growth This chart shows the historical correlation between S&P 500 EPS growth and buyback growth (R² = 0.32). Goldman Sachs expects buybacks to fall by 50% during 2020 and EPS by 33%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Index vs. Reported EPS This chart shows the very high correlation between stock prices and earnings since 1871 (R² = 0.97) Image: Fidelity Investments

Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 4% in December. Trucks represent 70% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows how the U.S. stock market has increased in line with the physical size and expansion of the US economy (R² = 0.95 since…

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996).  It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. Click the Image to Enlarge

China 10-Year Yield and Copper to Gold Ratio Chart showing the weekly correlation between China 10-year yield and the copper to gold ratio (R² = 0.58). Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Real GDP Leading Indicator The U.S. real GDP leading indicator suggests an improvement in the second half of 2020 (R² = 0.74). Image: KKR Global Macro

Business and Industrial Sentiment vs. U.S. GDP Chart suggesting that business and industrial surveys have not explained U.S. economic growth over the past decade (R² = 0). Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Fed Balance Sheet vs. S&P 500 Chart suggesting that since October 2019, a 1% increase in the Fed balance sheet has been associated with a 0.9% increase in the S&P 500,  (R² = 0.52). Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research