99% Correlation with the US Stock Market and an R² of 0.97 since 1970 Our forecasting models have a fantastic 99% correlation with the US stock market on a quarterly basis since 1970 and an R² of 0.97. It means that 97 percent of the US stock market variance is predictable by the flows of data…
Germany – Explaining 10-Year Bund Yields This great chart suggests that demographics explain Germany’s 10-year bund yields. An R² of 0.87 is quite high and significant. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S./German 2-Year Yield Spread vs. U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate This chart shows the Euro vs. US Dollar (EUR/USD) and how a wider U.S./German 2-year yield spread corresponds to a stronger US dollar. R² = 0.62 since 2005.
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index surged 6.6% in July and is still on a nice upward path. Trucks represent 70% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows how the U.S. stock market has increased in line with the physical size and expansion…
Demographics – Older Societies Have Lower Inflation This interesting chart shows again that an aging population leads to lower inflation (R² = 0.45). Picture source: Oxford Economics
U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months This chart shows the U.S. core inflation expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). You may also like “Where Does Inflation Come From?” and “How…
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 The U.S. stock market is pricing in a strong rebound in the ISM Manufacturing Index (R² = 0.40 since 1997). Picture source: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Monthly Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Keep in mind that mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield. 30-year mortgage rates = 1.739 x (10-year treasury yield)² + 0.7755 x (10-year treasury yield) + 0.0227(R² = 0.9787) You may also like “30-Year Mortgage Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield.” Picture source: Leonard Kiefer
Demographics Explain Sovereign 30-Year Yields Accross Emerging Markets Another great chart showing that emerging market demographics explain 30-year sovereign bond yields. An R² of 0.80 is quite high and significant. You may also like “U.S. Population Growth vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield.” Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Decomposing the U.S. 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spread since 2013 This great chart shows that the “Global Economic Data” variable has a significant impact on the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread since 2018. An R² of 0.902 means that more than 90 percent of the variance in the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread…
