99% Correlation with the US Stock Market and an R² of 0.97 since 1970 Our forecasting models have a fantastic 99% correlation with the US stock market on a quarterly basis since 1970 and an R² of 0.97. It means that 97 percent of the US stock market variance is predictable by the flows of data…
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Leads U.S. Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index leads the U.S. unemployment rate by 9 months. An R² of 0.80 is quite high and significant. Picture source: Deutsche Bank
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index declined 3.2% in August and is still on a nice upward path. Trucks represent 70% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows how the U.S. stock market has increased in line with the physical size and expansion…
Japan – Explaining 10-Year Yields Great chart suggesting that demographics explain Japan’s 10-year yields. An R² of 0.87 is quite high and significant. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
S&P 500 Trailing Price-to-Earnings Ratio vs. Real Fed Funds Rate Great chart showing the S&P 500 12-month trailing P/E ratio vs. the real Fed funds rate (R² = 0.79). Picture source: Stifel
U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart shows the U.S. core CPI expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. The chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). You may also…
Germany – Explaining 10-Year Bund Yields This great chart suggests that demographics explain Germany’s 10-year bund yields. An R² of 0.87 is quite high and significant. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S./German 2-Year Yield Spread vs. U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate This chart shows the Euro vs. US Dollar (EUR/USD) and how a wider U.S./German 2-year yield spread corresponds to a stronger US dollar. R² = 0.62 since 2005.
Demographics – Older Societies Have Lower Inflation This interesting chart shows again that an aging population leads to lower inflation (R² = 0.45). Picture source: Oxford Economics
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 The U.S. stock market is pricing in a strong rebound in the ISM Manufacturing Index (R² = 0.40 since 1997). Picture source: Deutsche Bank
