98% Correlation with the US Stock Market and an R² of 0.96 since 1970 Our forecasting models have a fantastic 98% correlation with the US stock market on a quarterly basis since 1970 and an R² of 0.96. It means that 97 percent of the US stock market variance is predictable by the flows of data…
S&P 500 CAPE Valuation and Following 10-Year Annualized Returns Since 1950 Does valuation still matter in the long run? Elevated CAPE ratio suggests anemic stock market returns over the next 10 years (R² = 0.467 since 1950). Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Normalized P/E vs. Subsequent Annualized Returns The current valuation suggests that equity investors should not expect more than 2% per year over the next 10 years (R² = 0.79). Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index decreased by 4.5% in February. Trucks represent 72.5% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows how the U.S. stock market has increased in line with the physical size and expansion of the US economy (R² = 0.92…
S&P 500 Sector Return on Equity vs. Price/Book Valuation Sector valuations are well-ordered relative to profitability (R² = 0.85). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) M2 velocity year-over-year tends to lead U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.53 since 1996). It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. Click the Image to Enlarge
U.S. Macro Fundamentals vs. S&P 500 This chart shows the current wide divergence between U.S. lead indicators and the S&P 500 (R² = 0.97). Image: Pictet Asset Management
S&P 500 Valuation – Consensus FY2 PB and Return on Equity (ROE) This chart suggests that the current valuation of the S&P 500 appears broadly consistent with the correlation between consensus FY2 P/B and return on equity (R² = 0.42). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Sector Return on Equity vs. Price to Book Valuation This chart suggests that sectors trade closely to their return on equity implied valuations (R² = 0.87). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Mortgages Rates U.S. treasury yields and mortgage rates aren’t following the usual pattern over the last 6 weeks (R² = 0.93). Image: Macrobond Financial