99% Correlation with the US Stock Market and an R² of 0.97 since 1970

99% Correlation with the US Stock Market and an R² of 0.97 since 1970 Our forecasting models have a fantastic 99% correlation with the US stock market on a quarterly basis since 1970 and an R² of 0.97. It means that 97 percent of the US stock market variance is predictable by the flows of data…

Business and Industrial Sentiment vs. U.S. GDP

Business and Industrial Sentiment vs. U.S. GDP Chart suggesting that business and industrial surveys have not explained U.S. economic growth over the past decade (R² = 0). Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Fed Balance Sheet vs. S&P 500

Fed Balance Sheet vs. S&P 500 Chart suggesting that since October 2019, a 1% increase in the Fed balance sheet has been associated with a 0.9% increase in the S&P 500,  (R² = 0.52). Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index

Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index declined -3.5% in November. Trucks represent 70% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows how the U.S. stock market has increased in line with the physical size and expansion of the US economy (R² = 0.95 since…

S&P 500 Price to Book Value vs. Future Returns

S&P 500 Price to Book Value vs. Future Returns The current S&P 500 price to book value suggests that equity market returns will be low over the next 10 years (R² = 0.86). Image: Tomasz Hońdo

Gold Price and Central Bank Gold Sales & Purchases

Gold Price and Central Bank Gold Sales & Purchases Chart suggesting that gold purchases from central banks have contributed to the rise in gold prices. An R² of 0.85 (since 2004) is quite high and significant. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator)

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart shows the U.S. core CPI expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. The chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). You may also…