99% Correlation with the US Stock Market and an R² of 0.97 since 1970 Our forecasting models have a fantastic 99% correlation with the US stock market on a quarterly basis since 1970 and an R² of 0.97. It means that 97 percent of the US stock market variance is predictable by the flows of data…
Inequality – Intergenerational Earnings Elasticity and Gini Coefficient Chart suggesting that social mobility cannot be achieved without greater equality (R² = 0.5) Image: Financial Times
Russell 2000 vs. Russell 1000 and Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Relative Returns Chart suggesting that small caps should outperform large caps over the next 10 years (R² = 0.42). Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy
Gold Price and Central Bank Gold Sales & Purchases Chart suggesting that gold purchases from central banks have contributed to the rise in gold prices. An R² of 0.85 (since 2004) is quite high and significant. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
S&P 500 Normalized P/E vs. Subsequent Annualized Returns Chart suggesting annual returns of around 5% over the next 10 years (R² = 0.79). Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index declined 0.3% in October and is still on a nice upward path. Trucks represent 70% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows how the U.S. stock market has increased in line with the physical size and expansion…
U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart shows the U.S. core CPI expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. The chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). You may also…
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Leads U.S. Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index leads the U.S. unemployment rate by 9 months. An R² of 0.80 is quite high and significant. Image: Deutsche Bank
Japan – Explaining 10-Year Yields Great chart suggesting that demographics explain Japan’s 10-year yields. An R² of 0.87 is quite high and significant. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
S&P 500 Trailing Price-to-Earnings Ratio vs. Real Fed Funds Rate Great chart showing the S&P 500 12-month trailing P/E ratio vs. the real Fed funds rate (R² = 0.79). Image: Stifel