99% Correlation with the US Stock Market and an R² of 0.97 since 1970

99% Correlation with the US Stock Market and an R² of 0.97 since 1970 Our forecasting models have a fantastic 99% correlation with the US stock market on a quarterly basis since 1970 and an R² of 0.97. It means that 97 percent of the US stock market variance is predictable by the flows of data…

Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index

Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index declined 3.2% in August and is still on a nice upward path. Trucks represent 70% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows how the U.S. stock market has increased in line with the physical size and expansion…

Japan – Explaining 10-Year Yields

Japan – Explaining 10-Year Yields Great chart suggesting that demographics explain Japan’s 10-year yields. An R² of 0.87 is quite high and significant. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator)

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart shows the U.S. core CPI expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. The chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). You may also…

Germany – Explaining 10-Year Bund Yields

Germany – Explaining 10-Year Bund Yields This great chart suggests that demographics explain Germany’s 10-year bund yields. An R² of 0.87 is quite high and significant. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 The U.S. stock market is pricing in a strong rebound in the ISM Manufacturing Index (R² = 0.40 since 1997). Picture source: Deutsche Bank