Consensus EPS Growth Estimates U.S. small caps are poised to lead Wall Street’s earnings race, with profits forecast to surge 31% in 2026 and 50% in 2027. S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 33% and 15%, respectively. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 27% year on year in 3Q 2026, powered largely by strong tech profits. Once again, tech is carrying the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Estimated Contribution of Hyperscaler Capex to S&P 500 EPS Growth The earnings tailwind from AI capex is expected to fade over the coming years, even as spending keeps climbing. With capex growth slowing and depreciation climbing, the lift to profits will shrink. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Contribution to Consensus S&P 500 EPS Growth Strong 2026 earnings growth has helped bring down the S&P 500’s forward P/E multiple. Consensus expects growth to cool in 2027 and 2028, but slower earnings growth alone is not a sell signal. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Economic Growth vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth S&P 500 earnings growth has surged far beyond what U.S. GDP growth would historically justify, sparking debate over whether this is a temporary overshoot or the start of a new earnings regime. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 2027 EPS Growth Based on Semiconductor Gross Margin Scenarios With semiconductors now an outsized, high-margin engine for the S&P 500, 2027 earnings growth is highly sensitive to how chip margins evolve. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Real Trailing 4Q EPS Relative to 30-Year Trend S&P 500 earnings are running well above a 30-year trend. That’s good news for profits, but a warning for valuations if the boom starts to cool. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI AC World EPS Earnings aren’t just good, they’re strong, and revisions are unusually well supported. The Street is pricing in AI-driven margin expansion without a capex blowout. So where’s the bubble risk, in earnings or in the narrative? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Fwd 12-Month P/E Multiple vs. EPS Yield Gap vs. Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury So far in 2026, U.S. equities have digested higher rates mostly through multiple compression, leaving the valuation gap to bonds largely intact. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio and Forward EPS Sustainable bull markets are driven by corporate earnings and fundamentals, not just hope. Vibes can lift prices for a while, but profits are what keep the rally going. Image: BCA Research
EPS – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates Goldman Sachs is adopting a more cautious stance than the street, expecting S&P 500 EPS to rise 24% in 2026, reaching approximately $340. That is notably below the 31% growth projected by consensus estimates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research