S&P 500 EPS Growth vs. Buyback Growth This chart shows the historical correlation between S&P 500 EPS growth and buyback growth (R² = 0.32). Goldman Sachs expects buybacks to fall by 50% during 2020 and EPS by 33%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates of 2020 EPS Growth This chart suggests that equity market valuations are too high, as current stock prices do not reflect the scale of earnings declines in a recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index vs. Reported EPS This chart shows the very high correlation between stock prices and earnings since 1871 (R² = 0.97) Image: Fidelity Investments
Peak to Trough Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS during 11 Recessions Since 1947 Goldman Sachs expects EPS to fall 33% in the United States (base case scenario). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Earnings and Dividend Growth (S&P 500 EPS and DPS) This chart suggests estimates for earnings and dividend growth this year, highlighting the financial crisis and the Great Depression. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
EPS Growth and Consensus The U.S. stock market is recovering, but Goldman Sachs expects EPS to fall 33% in the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index vs. Earnings per Share (EPS) Currently, the S&P 500 Index prices in a 15% decline in EPS. A decline of 33% from 2019 seems more appropriate, according to Goldman Sachs. Image: Jeroen Blokland
Sensitivity of S&P 500 EPS Forecast to Changes in GDP and the U.S. Dollar This table suggests the sensitivity of S&P 500 EPS forecast to changes in GDP and the U.S. dollar. Image: J.P. Morgan US Equity Strategy & Global Quantitative Research
S&P 500 YoY EPS Growth Goldman Sachs now forecasts S&P 500 EPS of $110 this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Economic Growth vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth This chart shows the link between economic growth and S&P 500 EPS growth, and highlights the sensitivity of S&P 500 EPS to macro variables. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research