S&P 500 Index and Blended Forward EPS The recent easing of tariffs has helped reverse the persistent negative earnings trend in U.S. equities, leading to a strong market rebound and improved short-term sentiment. Image: Bloomberg
Consensus EPS Growth Estimate Following the initial Magnificent Seven earnings report on April 22, analysts revised full-year earnings estimates upward by 1.8% for the Magnificent Seven, but downward by 0.8% for the other 493 companies in the S&P 500. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Despite ongoing economic uncertainties, consensus estimates still forecast a solid 7% rise in S&P 500 earnings per share for 2025, reflecting the resilience of the corporate sector. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings – S&P 500 Consensus EPS Revision The 2025 EPS revision trend follows historical patterns. With high initial estimates and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, investors should stay alert for possible further downward adjustments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Magnificent 6 (ex. NVDA) vs. S&P 493 Quarterly EPS YoY Growth The gap in EPS growth between mega-cap tech and the S&P 493 widened during 1Q 2025, as strong tech earnings and upward revisions contrasted with more cautious or downward-trending guidance for the broader market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Ratio to 1-Year MA vs. S&P 500 EPS S&P 500 market pricing broadly aligns with Deutsche Bank’s Q2 earnings growth forecast. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations S&P 500 Q1 2025 earnings growth has substantially outpaced initial expectations, driven by robust results from key sectors and widespread positive surprises. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 2025 EPS Estimate After Tariff Impact Deutsche Bank slashed its 2025 S&P 500 EPS estimate to $240 (from $282) due to tariffs’ outsized burden on U.S. companies. The S&P 500 index could rally to 6,150 if trade tensions meaningfully abate. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Valuation – Consensus Forward P/E vs. Expected EPS Growth The P/E premium reflects higher expected EPS growth, supported by a strong current correlation between EPS growth forecasts and P/E multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sensitivity of S&P 500 Returns to EPS and P/E Scenario Goldman Sachs projects S&P 500 EPS at $253 for 2025, driven by economic slowdowns, tariff pressures, and inflationary risks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Valuations Based On Forward Operating EPS The sharp market sell-off has triggered a reversion in S&P 500 valuations, which have dropped from 22.5x to 18.5x forward earnings over the past month. With the long-term average near 16x, there may still be scope for further declines. Image: Real Investment Advice