S&P 500 Returns Final Six Months When Up >10% at Midpoint of Year Bulls are smiling again, as December has been the cheerleader of the U.S. stock market since WWII—always positive in election years when the S&P 500 is up 10% or more at the midpoint! Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Return – Year 3 of Bull Market Like a kid who loses interest in his favorite toy after two years, the S&P 500 tends to slow down in the third year of a bull market. Its gains often become less impressive compared to the first two years. Image: MarketDesk
S&P 500 Returns After Back-to-Back 20% Returns Bulls smile when the S&P 500 experiences two consecutive years with returns of 20% or more, as the following year has historically seen a median return of 12.8%, based on data since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Post-Election Day S&P 500 Returns While investors have responded positively to the election results, the true effects of new policies remain uncertain. The market’s robust performance is based on expectations, not realized economic outcomes. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Returns When Up >17.5% After the First 10 Months of Year Historically, when the S&P 500 has been up more than 17.5% year-to-date going into November, the final two months of the year have never seen a decline, with an average gain of 6%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After the Election The U.S. stock market has shown a notable tendency to perform well following presidential elections. In fact, after the last ten elections, stocks have increased in value nine times, with a median gain of 17.2% one year later. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns on Halloween When Up YTD Going into the Spooky Day The S&P 500 rarely experiences major declines on Halloween. In the last three decades, when the index was positive for the year, its worst performance on October 31st was just a 0.38% drop. Image: Carson Investment Research
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns While seasonality can help assess stock market probabilities, it’s important to remember that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. That said, November has historically been a strong month for U.S. stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Forecast 10-Year Annualized S&P 500 Returns Based on the 10-year annualized total return forecast distribution, there’s a 72% likelihood that the S&P 500 will underperform Treasury bonds, and a 33% probability that equities will generate returns below inflation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields The S&P 500 typically struggles when U.S. Treasury yields rise quickly. This is largely due to decreased stock valuation multiples, especially for high-priced mega-cap growth companies that thrive in low-rate environments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year Annualized S&P 500 Returns Goldman Sachs predicts that the S&P 500 will achieve an average annualized return of only 3% in the coming decade, considerably below historical norms, reflecting concerns about high equity valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research