Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Seasonality should be viewed as a valuable tool rather than a crystal ball for predicting future market movements. Historical patterns indicate that the U.S. stock market has shown strength in the first half of July. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Returns by the First and Second Half of the Month Seasonality is a useful statistical tool, but not a crystal ball for predicting future market movements. Past patterns indicate that the U.S. stock market has often demonstrated strength in the first half of July. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Returns After 20 or More All-Time Highs at Midpoint of the Year Since 1950, when the S&P 500 index has made 20 or more all-time highs by mid-year, the full year has been positive 100% of the time, with an average of 20 new all-time highs in the second half. Image: Carson Investment…
S&P 500 Returns After >10% YTD at the Middle of the Year Since 1950, when the S&P 500 index has been up more than 10% at the middle of the year, the full year has been positive 100% of the time with a median gain of 26.4%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After >10% YTD End of May Bulls smile when the S&P 500 index has gained more than 10% after the first five months of the year, as the average return for the rest of the year has been 8.8% since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns During Earnings Seasons Earnings season usually sees the S&P 500 rallying, with a typical median average return of 2.0%. This time, however, the trend looks different. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields When U.S. Treasury yields rise quickly, the S&P 500 typically faces challenges due to factors like decreased stock valuation multiples, especially for expensive mega-cap growth companies linked to low rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns – The 4-Year Presidential Cycle The current presidential cycle for the S&P 500 is extended when compared to both the average and first term cycles, highlighting the market’s unique dynamics and complexity. Image: BofA Global Research
Average Annualized 1-Month Real Total S&P 500 Return and U.S. Unemployment Rate While a low U.S. unemployment rate is generally a positive indicator for the economy, very low unemployment rates can be seen as a negative for U.S. stocks. Image: BCA Research
Average S&P 500 Returns by Election Cycle Year The dynamics and uncertainties of the electoral process often impact market performance in presidential election years, leading to a historical trend of weaker S&P 500 returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research