S&P 500 Returns from Election of New President in November to 100 Days After the Inauguration President Joe Biden’s 100-day stock market performance is the strongest in at least 75 years. Image: J.P. Morgan
AAII Bull/Bear Survey – S&P 500 Return Following Sentiment Extremes Elevated sentiment like today suggests lower future returns. Image: Richardson Wealth
S&P 500 Return – Equity Market Trends Around U.S. Capital Gains Tax Rate Hikes Equity prices tend to decline around U.S. capital gains tax hikes, but are likely to be short-lived. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median Forward S&P 500 Return Based on ISM Manufacturing Index at Time of Investment When the ISM is above 60, like today, the median forward return on the S&P 500 tends to be negative over the next 3 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After Strong First Quarter Historically, returns between 5-10% in the first quarter tend to be bullish for the S&P 500 through the rest of the year. Image: LPL Financial LLC
Average Forward S&P 500 Return Conditional on ISM Manufacturing Index at Time of Investment When the ISM is above 60, like today, the return on the S&P 500 tends to be negative over the next 3 and 6 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Returns in March Historically, the Ides of March tend to be bullish for U.S. stocks. Image: LPL Financial LLC
Rolling 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Z-score of 1-Month Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 50 bp (2.6 standard deviations) during the last month, which tends to have a negative impact on the S&P 500. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns During Earnings Season The S&P 500 typically rallies during earnings season, with a median average return of 2.1%. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Return After Corrections Historically, once corrections end, the S&P 500 tends to be positive over 12 and 24 months. Image: LPL Financial LLC Click the Image to Enlarge