Aggregate Earnings Surprise – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Philly Semiconductors, Bloomberg AI Value Chain The S&P 500 just posted its strongest earnings season in years, powered by AI-driven profits. When the index beats estimates by this much, investors are more comfortable paying rich valuations. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Fair Value Model The 10-year U.S. Treasury is yielding about 4.7%, roughly 40 basis points above its fair-value estimate of 4.3%. That spread favors mean-reversion trades over outright directional bets. Image: Alpine Macro
Oil Price Fair Value Oil is trading more than 50% above its estimate of medium-term fair value. Outside the 2022 shock peak, the market has rarely looked this stretched, leaving plenty of room for a pullback if conditions normalize. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Dollar History vs. Neutral Value Currency markets move more on expectations around interest rates, economic data, and geopolitics than on fundamentals. The U.S. dollar’s stabilization at neutral levels reflects Fed policy uncertainty and ongoing global tensions. Image: Real Investment Advice
Global Value vs. Growth This year, investors have shifted from expensive tech into value plays. But lower rates could revive growth stocks as cheaper money boosts the appeal of future profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Growth vs. Value – Relative Total Return Value is back in favor to start the year, as lofty valuations keep investors on edge. Still, growth could stage a comeback if earnings deliver some upside surprises. Image: Topdown Charts
Valuation – S&P 500 Real Value Index Since 1871, the S&P 500 real total returns, dividends reinvested, have averaged 6.9% a year. The U.S. Real Value Index has always mean-reverted — and right now, it is between 10% and 20% above fair value. Image: TS Lombard
Valuations – Market Values as a Proportion of World GDP Global equities have tripled their weight since the 1990s, jumping from 75% to above 200% of world GDP—an expansion that screams just how far valuations have run. Honestly, what could go wrong? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Largest Company in Terms of Market Value in the S&P 500 in Each Year Since 1955 The market’s biggest players usually cluster in the sector riding the economic zeitgeist—and right now, that’s tech. It’s where innovation happens, growth speeds up, and investors chase the next breakout story. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Corporate Equities Market Value Outstanding vs. Monetary Base vs. Nominal GDP Quantitative easing expands the monetary base, alongside a rising federal deficit, a combination that usually boosts financial asset prices but delivers mixed and modest impacts on overall economic growth. Image: TS Lombard
Announced Share Buybacks in the U.S. The ongoing pipeline of stock repurchase programs demonstrates strong confidence among executives and continues to underpin the U.S. stock market through 2025 and beyond. Image: Bloomberg