After-Tax Nonfinancial Corporate Profits as Share of Gross Value Added While U.S. corporate profits fell in Q1 2025 due to higher costs and economic uncertainty, they remain historically high, reflecting both the strength and the vulnerability of large companies in the current economic climate. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Dollar DXY Index Deviation from PPP Fair Value and Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Return By most measures, the U.S. dollar remains overvalued-even after its recent declines-and appears poised for a secular decline. Image: Bloomberg
Performance – Spread Between Quarterly Percentage Gains in S&P 500 Value and Growth Indexes Value stocks have significantly outperformed growth stocks in the first quarter of 2025. The upcoming earnings reports will play a pivotal role in determining whether this trend will persist or if growth stocks will reclaim their leadership. Image: Bloomberg
DXY U.S. Dollar Index vs. Nasdaq Composite / MSCI World Value Over the past two years, U.S. growth stocks—known for their sensitivity to currency fluctuations—have exhibited a strong correlation with the U.S. dollar. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. Stocks – Magnificent Seven Market Value as a Percent of S&P 500 Market Value The “Magnificent Seven” stocks have significantly influenced the S&P 500, now accounting for 34% of its market capitalization, reflecting their dominance and the concentrated risk in the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Fair Value The fair value model for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, based on market variables, suggests a fair value close to 4.10%. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – Relative Forward P/E of Russell 1000 Value vs. Growth Indices The current landscape for value and growth investing reveals a significant and persistent valuation gap, with value stocks trading at lower prices relative to their growth counterparts. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Performance – Large Cap Growth vs. Small Cap Value Large-cap growth stocks are outperforming small-cap value stocks at a level not seen since the dot-com bubble era. Historical patterns and the potential for economic recovery indicate that this trend may change in the long term. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Value Flows Over the past 18 months, outflows from U.S. value funds have been substantial, totaling a record $100 billion. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
MSCI World Value vs. Growth Given the current market dynamics, will the outperformance of growth stocks over value stocks be reversed in the future, with value stocks potentially taking the lead? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
FMS Investors – Net % Saying Gold Overvalued According to FMS investors, gold is currently considered the most overvalued since August 2020, raising concerns about a potential market bubble. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey