After-Tax Nonfinancial Corporate Profits as Share of Gross Value Added While U.S. corporate profits fell in Q1 2025 due to higher costs and economic uncertainty, they remain historically high, reflecting both the strength and the vulnerability of large companies in the current economic climate. Image: Bloomberg
Large U.S. Tax Hikes Trump’s tariffs represent the most significant U.S. tax increase since 1968, raising widespread concerns about their long-term effects on the economy. Image: J.P. Morgan
Estimated Earnings Impact of 1pp Change in Statutory Tax Rate A one percentage point change in the corporate tax rate can have a measurable impact on U.S. corporate earnings, with small companies often feeling the effects more acutely than their larger counterparts. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Corporate Income Tax Rate The trend of declining effective tax rates among S&P 500 companies reflects broader economic shifts and policy decisions that have shaped the landscape of corporate taxation in the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 EPS – Potential U.S. Tax Impact on Earnings Per Share Donald Trump’s plan to cut the U.S. corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% could significantly impact S&P 500 earnings per share, potentially increasing EPS by 4% and improving profitability for many companies in the index. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Corporate Profits After Tax vs. S&P 500 The gap between the S&P 500 and corporate profits after tax remains wide. Has the S&P 500 more room to fall? Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. Growth Tax (Leading Indicator) Should investors expect a sharp contraction of the U.S. economy? Image: Alpine Macro
S&P 500 Return Seasonality and Tax Day Historically, U.S. stocks tend to rally in the two-week period after tax day. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. Growth Tax (Inverted) vs. ISM New Orders Minus Inventories (Leading Indicator) Should investors expect a sharp fall in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI? Image: Alpine Macro
Prediction Market Odds of U.S. Corporate Tax Rate in 2022 Is a corporate tax hike unlikely? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Distribution of S&P 500 Sector Consensus 2022 Effective Tax Rates Investors should not fear a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research