Average Probability S&P 500 Volatility Regime The probability of a high S&P 500 volatility regime has increased, suggesting that elevated volatility could persist throughout 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Volatility The concentration of large-cap stocks has significantly impacted market volatility, with these stocks accounting for a record share of it. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Would You Rather Be Long or Short S&P 500 Volatility at the Moment? 73% of JPM clients prefer to be long S&P 500 volatility right now. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Volatility History The stock market crash of 1929, the Black Monday of 1987, the global financial crisis in 2008, and the COVID-19 crisis were the most extreme events. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Volatility by Decade Volatility ended this decade at a lower level than the previous decade. Image: Reuters
S&P 500 Volatility in 2020 Goldman Sachs economic model suggests volatility of 14.7 on average next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 Volatility This chart shows that the S&P 500 volatility remains high in a context of slower macroeconomic cycles. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
“Real Fed Rates Are the Most Accurate Predictor of Future S&P 500 Volatility,” Says SocGen SocGen says it is the most accurate predictor of S&P 500’s volatility over the last 50 years. Should investors be nervous about rising real interest rates? Yes, higher real interest rates mean higher borrowing costs. Real Fed funds rate is…
S&P 500 Median Monthly Realized Volatility – Midterm Election Years vs. All Years Midterm years usually bring more turbulence to the S&P 500, particularly in October, while the market waits to see who ends up controlling Congress and how that reshapes taxes, regulation and spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility Systematic strategies sit in the 76th percentile and stay overweight. By itself, that’s not a top signal or a warning of an imminent selloff. Positioning can stay elevated as long as the bull market keeps momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 3-Month Option-Implied Volatility Single-stock volatility in the S&P 500 has eased from July’s extremes but remains above its long-term average, while index volatility is still relatively calm. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research