S&P 500 Return Around First Fed Cut After Being on Hold for 6+ Months Historically, U.S. stocks often deliver strong returns in the 12 months after the Fed resumes cutting rates, particularly when economic growth continues. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed’s Q3 2025 GDP Nowcast stands at 1.78%, pointing to a slowdown in economic growth. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects U.S. real GDP will expand at a 2.6% annualized rate in Q2 2025, reflecting a robust recovery from the previous quarter’s decline. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders show little optimism for a Fed rate cut at the July 30, 2025 FOMC meeting, with market expectations assigning just a 4.7% probability of a 25 bps reduction. Image: CME Group
U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public The U.S. public debt has reached unprecedented levels both in absolute terms and relative to the economy, raising significant concerns about the country’s fiscal sustainability and economic future. Image: Deutsche Bank
Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year The outlook could change quickly in response to upcoming inflation data or shifts in the economic landscape, but for now, traders are pricing in almost two rate cuts before the end of 2025. Image: Bloomberg
Fed Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures Fewer Fed rate cuts are expected in 2025, but chances of greater easing in 2026 have risen. This reflects caution amid inflation and policy risks, and leaves room for stronger monetary support if economic conditions worsen. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Federal Reserve Broad Real Effective Trade-Weighted Dollar Both historical trends and current economic indicators suggest that the U.S. dollar is entering a period of decline. Structural fiscal challenges, policy uncertainty, and cyclical patterns all point to further weakness ahead. Image: Bloomberg
Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Investors should expect only one 25bps Fed rate cut for the remainder of 2025, most likely in September, unless there is a significant deterioration in economic data or a sharp rise in unemployment. Image: The Daily Shot
Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at its meetings in December 2025, January 2026, and March 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5–3.75%, in line with their elevated neutral rate projection. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public Even with U.S. federal debt at historic highs and projected to rise further, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains low compared to the high-inflation periods of the past half-century. Image: Deutsche Bank