Search Results for: Fed

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed’s Q2 2025 GDP Nowcast has been revised upward to 2.42%, up from 2.34% the previous week. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now projects a 2.3% annualized increase in U.S. real GDP for Q2 2025, suggesting a near-term economic rebound after a disappointing first quarter. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Wage Growth vs. Fed Funds Rate When wage growth lags behind the fed funds rate, it is interpreted as a sign that monetary policy is restrictive, as borrowing costs exceed the pace of income growth, potentially dampening consumer spending and economic activity. Image: Yahoo Finance

Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders show little optimism for a Fed rate cut at the May 7, 2025 FOMC meeting, with market expectations assigning just a 4.4% probability of a 25 bps reduction. Image: CME Group

Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps at the December 2025, January 2026, and March 2026 meetings, bringing the Fed funds rate to a 3.5–3.75% range, aligning with their neutral rate projection. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Pre and Post Fed Rate Cuts Historically, U.S. stocks have demonstrated robust performance in the two years following the start of a Fed rate cut cycle, particularly during periods without recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Federal Funds Rate and ECB Deposit Rate Unlike the recent past, when inflation was high and interest rates were near zero, the Fed and ECB now have greater flexibility to cut rates if economic conditions worsen. Image: Deutsche Bank

Market-Implied Fed Funds Rate and 2-Year U.S. Inflation Swap Current market pricing of Fed rate cuts indicates a pivot from inflation worries to growth concerns, suggesting investors expect the Fed to prioritize economic stability over aggressive inflation control. Image: Deutsche Bank

Fed Balance Sheet Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will slow its balance sheet reduction in June 2025 and end quantitative tightening by September, which could influence market liquidity and interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Fed Balance Sheet The ongoing reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet is expected to reduce bank reserves. This reduction may lead to higher inflation, increased real yields, and a steeper yield curve. Image: TS Lombard

Global Equities Around Fed Cut With And Without Recession Strong performance in global equities is common after the Fed’s initial rate cut, particularly when the economy remains recession-free for the subsequent 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research