S&P 500 Returns After Fed Cuts Within 2% of an All-Time High Bears are losing ground as history leans bullish. Since 1980, when the Fed has eased policy while the S&P 500 traded within 2% of an all‑time high, the index has risen every time in the next 12 months, averaging a 14.2% gain Image:…
S&P 500 and Fed Funds Target Rate When the Fed cuts rates outside of a recession, U.S. stocks typically perform well. However, a perceived “too dovish” cut, signaling excessive economic worry, could disrupt the ongoing year-end stock rally. Image: Bloomberg
Fed Funds Rate – 2026 Year-End Rate Levels Expectations Deutsche Bank’s latest poll of 40 global market participants shows expectations for the fed funds rate at end-2026 anchored near 3.2%, regardless of whether Powell keeps rates unchanged or opts for a 25-basis-point cut today. Image: Deutsche Bank
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q1 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast slightly higher to 2.24% from 2.22% a week earlier, a small move that keeps the soft-but-steady growth story intact. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
Median S&P 500 Performance After Fed Cuts Rates The S&P 500 has typically rallied about 50% in the two years after the Fed begins cutting rates. But when those cuts hit during recessions, those gains often don’t last. Image: Deutsche Bank
Median U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance in Fed Rate Cuts Cycles Fed rate cuts usually pull short-term yields lower, but long Treasury bonds don’t always fall in line. Inflation expectations, shifting bets on future policy, or a flood of new debt can just as easily push them higher. Image: Deutsche Bank
Composition of Fed Liabilities with Projections With QT ending, the Fed will pivot to reserve management purchases of Treasury bills in early 2026. Goldman Sachs expects bank reserves to climb past $3 trillion by late next year, a sign that liquidity is finally loosening again. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Around First Fed Cut Fed easing sounds bullish, but not when growth cracks. In recessions, U.S. stocks have often fallen despite cheaper money. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market Pricing of Fed Rate Cuts Traders are increasingly confident the Fed will cut rates at the December 10, 2025 FOMC meeting, pricing in an 86% chance of a quarter-point move and just a 23% likelihood of another cut in January 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate Estimates from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow point to 3.9% annualized GDP growth in Q3 2025, a reminder that the U.S. economy isn’t cooling just yet. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank is sticking to its call for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December 2025 and sees the fed funds rate ending 2026 in the 3.25% to 3.5% range. Image: Deutsche Bank