U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public

U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public The Congressional Budget Office projects that the U.S. federal debt will double GDP by 2050. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

New York Fed GDP Nowcast

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed’s GDP Nowcast stands at 5.05% for 2020:Q4. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Fed’s Balance Sheet Growth

Fed’s Balance Sheet Growth The growth of the Fed’s balance sheet has a good correlation with the S&P 500 since 2009. How will the U.S. stock market do the rest of the year? Image: Financial Times

KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions

KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index is positive. Labor market conditions remain above their long-run average. Historically, a negative value is a necessary, but not sufficient requirement for recessions: it means that labor market conditions are below their long-run average.

U.S. Federal Debt

U.S. Federal Debt A potential warning sign for the U.S. economy, as economic growth in Japan and Italy came to a halt after their debt-to-GDP ratios exceeded 100%. Image: Piper Sandler

Fed Balance Sheet Forecast

Fed Balance Sheet Forecast To infinity and beyond? The Fed balance sheet could grow at a sustained pace to fill the “policy gap”. Image: Deutsche Bank

Fed Funds Future

Fed Funds Future The Federal Reserve also sees near-zero interest rates lasting through 2022 to curb economic damage of the coronavirus. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research