Search Results for: Fed

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The GDPNow model estimate for U.S. real GDP growth is 1.8% for 2019:Q3 as of October 16, 2019. Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Fed Rate Cut – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Oct. 30 Meeting Traders see a 87.1% probability of a 25-bps rate cut at the Fed’s FOMC October 30 meeting. Picture source: CME Group

Federal Reserve Money Supply M2 Leads Global Manufacturing PMI Chart suggesting that the Federal Reserve money supply M2 leads global manufacturing PMI by 18 months. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond

Expected Fed Funds Rate as of October 11, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of only 1.25%. Click the Picture to Enlarge

San Francisco Fed Leading Unemployment Rate Does the San Francisco Fed Leading Unemployment Rate signal a turning point in the U.S. labor market? Picture source: Merk Investments

S&P 500 Index Pre and Post Fed Rate Cuts This chart shows what the market has done every time the Fed cut rates since 1984. One step closer to recession? Picture source: UBS

Philly Fed Leading Index and Recession The Philly Fed Leading Index for the United States suggests that the U.S. economy is still in expansion mode over the next 6 months. Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Bank Reserves Held at the Fed Nice chart showing that overall deposits at the Fed from banks have fallen over the past year. Picture source: Reuters

Fed Balance Sheet Projection According to the NY Fed, the Fed’s balance sheet could be between $3.8 trillion and $4.7 trillion by 2025. Picture source: UBS

U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle and Fed Insurance Cut vs. Fed Recession Cut In recent history, when the U.S. long-term business cycle peaks in the 90th percentile and the Fed cut rates, a recession occurred. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management