New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed tweaked its Q3 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast to 2.36% from 2.37% last week, leaving the broader growth narrative firmly in place Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
Fed Funds Rate The market’s baseline has shifted: traders see about 50 bp of Fed tightening over the next several months, something that would have been hard to believe in January. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Return Around Start of Fed Hiking Cycles When the Fed turns to hiking, the S&P 500 often takes a breather, slipping modestly over the next few weeks and months before the broader trend resumes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold vs. Oil vs. Fed Pricing After moving opposite to oil in March and April, gold diverged in May and is now trading more in line with Fed rate expectations. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
S&P 500 Performance Under New Fed Leadership Since 1930 New Fed leadership rarely drives the market narrative. It tends to follow the momentum already in place across the economy. Transitions, however, can change the intensity of the market’s response to incoming data and policy signals. Image: Deutsche Bank
Dow Jones Performance Under Various Federal Reserve Bank Chairs The Dow has performed well under Jerome Powell, delivering an annualized return of 8.4%, comfortably above the long-term average of 6.2%. That puts him 8th among the 16 Fed chairs. Will Kevin Warsh do better? Image: Carson Investment Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields vs. New Fed Chair 10-year U.S. Treasury yields often push higher in the first six months after a new Fed chair takes office, as markets adjust to a new policy regime. Leadership changes cloud the outlook, and markets price in that uncertainty. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Drawdowns from 52-Week High and the First Two Years of a New Fed Chair’s Term Fed leadership changes don’t usually shake markets on their own. It’s the macro picture and prior positioning that set the tone. The shift only bites if it clashes with what markets were expecting in the first place. Image:…
Fed Funds Rate Markets are now pricing in a meaningful chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026, something that looked very unlikely at the start of the year. Image: MarketDesk Research
Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Markets have sharply repriced the Fed path. Investors shouldn’t see “no rate cuts before 2027”, but they should recognize that the hurdle for 2026 easing has risen significantly. Cuts aren’t off the table, just harder to justify now. Image: The Daily Shot
Fed Funds Rate vs. Gasoline Price / Core CPI When gasoline prices rise faster than inflation and move in step with growth, the Fed tends to lift rates. But what is the determining factor this time: strong demand or deep strain? It’s clearly the latter. Image: TS Lombard